Bitcoin bulls favored in $22.6B BTC monthly options expiry, but bears still lurk

1 month ago

Key takeaways:

Bullish bets predominate the September Bitcoin options expiry, assuming BTC terms holds the $110,000 enactment level.
Despite higher request for bullish bets, macroeconomic uncertainty keeps downside risks connected the table.

A full of $22.6 cardinal successful Bitcoin (BTC) options are scheduled to expire connected Friday, creating a decisive infinitesimal aft the crisp rejection astatine $117,000. Currently, bullish strategies stay amended positioned heading into the expiry arsenic agelong arsenic the $112,000 level holds.

Deribit continues to predominate the market, with $17.4 cardinal successful unfastened involvement for Friday’s Bitcoin options, portion OKX and CME way down with $1.9 cardinal each. Call (buy) options mostly outnumber enactment (sell) contracts, reflecting cryptocurrency traders’ accordant optimism.

Demand for neutral-to-bullish Bitcoin positions is prevalent

The September expiry follows the accustomed trend, with enactment unfastened involvement sitting 20% beneath the $12.6 cardinal successful telephone positions. The last result depends connected Bitcoin’s terms astatine 8:00 americium UTC connected Friday, and the archetypal vantage for telephone holders volition hinge connected whether prices prolong supra $112,000.

Traders’ positioning astatine Deribit speech shows that neutral-to-bearish bets targeted the $95,000 to $110,000 range, which is becoming progressively unlikely. A important information of telephone contracts were placed astatine highly optimistic levels, with $6.6 cardinal successful unfastened involvement waiting astatine $120,000 and above, leaving astir $3.3 cardinal realistically successful play.

Meanwhile, 81% of enactment options astatine Deribit are acceptable astatine $110,000 oregon lower, leaving lone $1.4 cardinal active. This setup powerfully favors neutral-to-bullish outcomes, though the investigation excludes much complex strategies, specified arsenic selling puts to seizure upside exposure. To corroborate whether professionals are genuinely leaning bullish, traders are watching the options skew metric.

The Bitcoin options delta skew shows mean fearfulness astatine 13%, with enactment options trading astatine a premium implicit equivalent telephone contracts. Under neutral conditions, this gauge should stay betwixt -6% and 6%, signaling that whales and marketplace makers are uneasy astir downside hazard astatine the existent $113,500 level.

$112,000 is the cardinal level to determine Bitcoin’s momentum

Below are 3 probable scenarios astatine Deribit based connected existent terms trends:

Between $107,000 and $110,000: $1 cardinal successful calls (buy) vs. $2 cardinal successful puts (sell). The nett effect favors the enactment instruments by $1 billion.
Between $110,100 and $112,000: $1.4 cardinal calls vs. $1.4 cardinal puts, resulting successful a balanced outcome.
Between $112,100 and $115,000: $1.66 cardinal calls vs. $1 cardinal puts, favoring calls by $660 million.

It whitethorn beryllium premature to constitute disconnected bearish options strategies entirely. Traders’ sentiment could displacement depending connected cardinal macroeconomic releases owed Thursday, including US gross home merchandise (GDP) data, play jobless claims, and upcoming Treasury auctions.

An progressively fragile economical backdrop supports further involvement complaint cuts by the US Federal Reserve, typically a bullish operator for risk-on assets similar cryptocurrencies. Still, persistent concerns implicit labour market weakness substance hazard aversion, which weighs negatively connected Bitcoin’s price.

For now, the September monthly Bitcoin options expiry is tilted successful favour of bulls, though a decisive driblet beneath $112,000 cannot beryllium ruled out.

This nonfiction is for wide accusation purposes and is not intended to beryllium and should not beryllium taken arsenic ineligible oregon concern advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed present are the author’s unsocial and bash not needfully bespeak oregon correspond the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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