Bitcoin falls under $102K: Analysts say BTC is ‘underpriced’ based on fundamentals

2 hours ago

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s diminution mirrors Nasdaq weakness but lacks a cardinal justification.
Spot BTC ETF inflows person cooled but stay nett positive, showing resilient capitalist demand.
Stablecoin liquidity and onchain accumulation suggest conditions for a rebound.

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its diminution to $102,000 connected Tuesday, dropping 7% this week and mirroring the Nasdaq 100 futures’ 1.67% driblet arsenic hazard assets came nether pressure. Historically, erstwhile the Nasdaq falls by much than 1.5% successful a azygous day, Bitcoin has a 75% probability of posting a antagonistic return, averaging a diminution of –2.4%, according to data from EcoinBitcoin-Nasdaqitcoin Nasdaq correlation by Ecoinometrics. Source: X

Despite the macroeconomic drag, the expert argued that Bitcoin’s terms weakness isn’t afloat justified by fundamentals. Financial conditions stay loose, and equity markets precocious deed grounds highs.

“Bitcoin has been underpriced comparative to the macro backdrop,” Ecoinometrics noted, emphasizing that the existent dip appears much sentiment-driven than structural.

However, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed notably since aboriginal October. The archetypal 2 weeks of Q4 generated implicit $5 cardinal successful nett inflows, portion the past 4 weeks person seen cumulative outflows of astir $1.5 billion. Although this displacement suggested immoderate cooling of demand, the wide nett inflow equilibrium remains positive, a motion that semipermanent capitalist appetite for BTC vulnerability remains resilient.

Globally, the slowdown has been echoed crossed crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs). Last week saw $246.6 million successful nett outflows from each crypto ETPs, mostly driven by $752 cardinal successful Bitcoin outflows. Notably, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led with $403 cardinal successful outflows, portion Grayscale’s GBTC saw $68 cardinal exit.

Onchain metrics adhd nuance to the picture. Sell-side unit has eased from $835 cardinal to $469 cardinal week-over-week, portion semipermanent accumulation remains strong. Bitcoin whales sent humble inflows of astir 4,900 BTC to exchanges; a motion of cautious repositioning alternatively than panic.

Exchange-held reserves fell to 2.85 cardinal BTC, reinforcing the broader accumulation inclination adjacent arsenic BTC trades beneath its 200-day moving mean ($108,000) and short-term holder outgo ground of $113,000.

Bitcoin liquidity signals turning point

Data from CryptoQuant suggested that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped backmost to the 13–14 range, the aforesaid portion seen earlier Bitcoin’s rebound earlier this year. Historically, this level has marked liquidity turning points, wherever expanding stablecoin balances awesome rising “buying power” connected the sidelines.

Currently, with Bitcoin trading astatine $102,200, the debased SSR suggests that stablecoin liquidity is softly gathering again, perchance mounting the signifier for a alleviation rally oregon the last bullish limb of this cycle.

However, each successive SSR rebound has grown weaker, suggesting that portion different upside signifier whitethorn inactive beryllium possible, the market’s underlying liquidity momentum could beryllium fading.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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