Polymarket shows 96.3% odds of no rate cut next week despite Trump claiming Fed is ‘ready’ to ease

Bettors connected the Polygon-based prediction marketplace Polymarket are assigning a 96.3% probability that the Federal Reserve leaves involvement rates unchanged astatine its July 29–30 meeting, according to the platform’s contract covering the decision. 

On apical of the percent of bets connected “no change,” the platform’s dashboard shows 3% betting connected a 25‑basis‑point cut, and little than 1% betting connected either a larger chopped oregon a hike. 

The backdrop

The bets travel amid an unusually nationalist quality betwixt President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has argued that the Fed should person started cutting rates. During a July 24 sojourn to the Fed’s renovation site, helium reiterated his stance and advocated for crisp reductions. 

Meanwhile, Powell has continued to accidental that argumentation volition stay data-dependent, with officials monitoring however tariffs and different factors interaction ostentation earlier considering easing. 

During the aforesaid visit, Trump stated that the renovation would outgo $3.1 billion, a fig Powell subsequently corrected, noting that the magnitude included costs from a antithetic gathering that had been refurbished years earlier. 

The speech highlighted the broader hostility implicit the Fed’s independency and followed Trump’s earlier suggestions, aboriginal tempered, that helium could region Powell earlier the extremity of his term. 

Low likelihood of Powell resigning

Contracts tied to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tenure also connote constricted odds of contiguous upheaval. 

The Polymarket likelihood connected whether Powell volition beryllium retired arsenic seat by July 31 are trading astir 1%, the August 31 mentation is adjacent 5%, and a longer‑dated marketplace puts the probability of his departure by year-end 2025 astatine astir 17%. 

Together, the Polymarket contracts suggest that participants expect nary argumentation alteration adjacent week and bash not expect an imminent shake-up successful Fed leadership, adjacent arsenic the medium-term probability of Powell’s exit has edged higher done year-end. 

For now, prediction markets align with astir nationalist Fed guidance, which is to clasp steady, measure the data, and debar pre‑committing to cuts.

The station Polymarket shows 96.3% likelihood of nary complaint chopped adjacent week contempt Trump claiming Fed is ‘ready’ to ease appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.