Is The Bitcoin Price Manipulated? Expert Exposes The Truth

3 months ago

In a caller probe study shared connected X, Joe Consorti, Head of Growth astatine Theya, has dispelled ongoing rumors alleging that the Bitcoin terms is being artificially held down. Consorti lays retired a broad introspection of on-chain data, pointing to the mean cyclical behaviour of semipermanent holders (LTHs) and their profit-taking patterns arsenic cardinal drivers of bitcoin’s existent trading dynamic.

Is The Bitcoin Price Currently Manipulated?

One of the halfway arguments Consorti addresses is the suspicion that “the boring play of consolidation” mightiness beryllium engineered done hidden marketplace forces. In his words: “Claims of artificial terms suppression is simply a gold-era statement that doesn’t enactment successful bitcoin, whose ledger is auditable successful existent time, meaning we tin spot precisely who is buying and selling done their ain node connected the network.”

Consorti underscores that immoderate concerted effort to artificially headdress Bitcoin would beryllium disposable to on-chain observers. Instead, the information points to a well-trodden pattern: aft accumulating BTC successful the little terms ranges—between $15,000 to $25,000—LTHs merchantability portions of their holdings into higher prices, redistributing coins to caller marketplace participants who proceed bidding bitcoin upward. “This is normal. Those who held for years commencement offloading arsenic terms moves higher, transferring coins to caller buyers stepping successful to bid the terms to adjacent higher highs.”

According to Consorti, Bitcoin has present entered its 100+ time consolidation scope astir $95,000—a agelong helium compares to erstwhile multi-month consolidation phases that yet resolved successful large terms expansions.

The probe provides a retrospective look astatine however LTHs behaved successful erstwhile terms climbs: “LTHs accumulated BTC from $15k to $25k, earlier selling to caller marketplace entrants (short-term holders) who bid the terms up to the adjacent ‘step’. They did the aforesaid from $25k to $40k, from $40k to $65k, and from $65k to the ~$95,000 scope we find ourselves successful now.”

Consorti notes that LTHs person lately turned backmost into nett accumulators. Although the displacement is slight, helium contends this behaviour usually marks the process extremity of consolidation earlier different breakout.

The researcher besides points to a caller $1.4 cardinal Ethereum hack connected Bybit—allegedly the largest successful crypto’s history—as a origin momentarily knocking bitcoin disconnected an effort to interruption retired of its falling wedge pattern. Despite the marketplace disruption, bitcoin lone slipped 1.75% connected the day, which Consorti says is simply a testament to the starring BTC’s “outright strength” and diminishing correlation to broader crypto assets.

Overall, Consorti expects the falling wedge to “resolve itself by the archetypal week of March,” barring further achromatic swan events. He besides observes that Bitcoin’s existent consolidation portion whitethorn agelong beyond 101 days, cautioning that “maximum symptom successful the market” could spot it widen to 236 days, mirroring past summer’s protracted consolidation period.

Consorti besides references the imaginable impact of President Trump’s moving group connected Bitcoin, which is acceptable to determine connected the viability of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the extremity of June. Should a last determination travel sooner, helium suggests it whitethorn supply a large spark for the market—either bullish oregon bearish, depending connected the outcome.

Spot ETF inflows, erstwhile seen arsenic a main propeller of Bitcoin’s price, person diminished since aboriginal January. Although they inactive amusement 7–8 fig regular inflows, these are down importantly from the 9–10 fig levels that occurred passim past outpouring and fall, hinting that different marketplace forces, specified arsenic organization and on-chain dynamics, mightiness beryllium much influential successful this cycle’s terms movement.

Another taxable is Bitcoin’s dislocation from global M2 wealth supply, which had tracked the terms with uncanny accuracy for astir 18 months. That correlation broke erstwhile planetary M2 suggested a deeper downturn for bitcoin, yet BTC continued to hover astir $95,000. Now that M2 is edging upward again connected a weaker US dollar, the probe suggests the anticipation of Bitcoin aligning for its adjacent limb higher.

Comparing Bitcoin to golden with a 50-day pb likewise implies that gold’s caller trajectory whitethorn “point to an upside resolution”, albeit little precisely than M2 correlations. If this holds, a propulsion towards $120,000 appears plausible.

Consorti concludes by shifting attraction to the evolving scenery of US Treasury (UST) demand. Major overseas holders specified arsenic China and Japan person progressively reduced oregon flatlined their positions—China’s holdings person reached a 2009 debased of $759 billion, portion Russia has afloat exited, and Japan remains astatine $1.06 trillion for 13 years. “It’s not conscionable China. Russia has afloat exited USTs. Japan, the largest overseas holder, has been sitting level astatine $1.06 trillion for 13 years.”

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve’s stock of outstanding marketable USTs has surged from 22% successful 2008 to 47.3% successful 2025, stepping successful arsenic overseas request wanes. But a caller subordinate is joining the marketplace successful the signifier of stablecoins, which collectively clasp astir $200 cardinal successful Treasuries to backmost their dollar-pegged tokens. According to Consorti, this stablecoin demand: “Could little semipermanent involvement rates. The proliferation of stablecoins and their usage of Treasuries arsenic a reserve plus means they’re functioning similar an wholly caller overseas cardinal bank.”

He argues that stablecoins efficaciously guarantee caller request for Treasuries, helping the US authorities offset declining overseas engagement and prolong its borrowing needs. White House AI & Crypto Czar David Sacks has publically echoed this perspective, saying stablecoins assistance support liquidity for US debt.

At property time, BTC traded $95,645.