Ether’s Rally Pulls Bitcoin Along: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The existent bull marketplace is emulating a bicycle race's paceline, wherever the beforehand rider expends vigor to thrust forward, creating a slipstream for the riders down earlier rotating to the backmost to remainder portion different rider picks up the effort.

Ether (ETH) took the leader's duties implicit the weekend. The second-largest cryptocurrency rose from $3,000 to implicit $3,300, dragging on bitcoin (BTC), which had been struggling to widen gains. Early this morning, BTC rotated to the front, rising from $119,000 to $122,300.

"This is 1 of the fewer times erstwhile a rally successful large altcoins has inspired BTC to interruption through. It's usually the different mode around," Alex Kuptsikevich, a elder expert astatine the FxPro, said successful an email. "Altcoins are mostly staying retired of this contention for now, taking a interruption aft past week's rally."

BTC's ascent continues to beryllium driven by spot marketplace demand, arsenic evidenced by the narrowing ratio betwixt trading volumes successful futures and spot markets. The ratio has dropped to the lowest since 2022, according to Swissblock Technologies.

Still, astatine slightest 2 factors telephone for caution connected the portion of the bulls. Firstly, according to Coinglass, bitcoin is inactive trading astatine a discount connected Coinbase comparative to Binance, a motion of anemic request from U.S.-based institutions. Secondly, cumulative spot and futures trading volumes are notably little than successful July (see Chart of the Day), erstwhile prices archetypal topped $120,000, according to Swissblock Technologies. This antagonistic measurement divergence indicates weaker buying pressure.

The bullish temper remains much pronounced successful ether than bitcoin. On Deribit, the notional unfastened involvement successful ether calls is astir 2.3 times greater than successful ether puts. The fig for bitcoin is good beneath 2. ETH's emergence is supported by on-chain activity, with regular transaction measurement connected the web hitting records and the fig of caller addresses nearing the precocious reached 4 years ago.

Still, ether appears susceptible to pullbacks due to the fact that 97% of ETH-holding addresses are "in-the-money," according to Sentora. In different words, the existent terms is supra the acquisition outgo of astir addresses, which means determination is simply a beardown inducement for these holders to instrumentality profits.

A akin inclination exists for XRP, the payments-focused cryptocurrency, which lagged implicit the play but roseate 3% aboriginal Monday. Speaking of the broader altcoin market, it could soon person its clip due to the fact that BTC's dominance complaint is adjacent to breaching a cardinal support. (Check the Technical Analysis section.)

In accepted markets, the U.S. two-year Treasury yield, which is delicate to short-term interest-rate expectations, held beneath its 200-day mean for the archetypal clip since 2022. The diminution is accordant with expectations for Fed interest-rate cuts.

The lawsuit for a September simplification has strengthened, with immoderate analysts suggesting that adjacent a hotter-than-expected CPI merchandise this week would not deter the Fed from easing. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 15: Record day for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who conscionable pre-distribution requirements.
  • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives volition launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
  • Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, astatine implicit 15 cardinal transactions per 2nd and powered by Useful Proof of Work (UPoW), volition acquisition its archetypal yearly halving event arsenic portion of a controlled emanation model. Although gross emissions stay fixed astatine 1 trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive pain complaint approved by the network’s Computors, the cardinal validators and determination makers, volition summation substantially — burning immoderate 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing nett effectual emissions to astir 21.25 trillion tokens.
• Macro
  • Aug. 12: The U.S.-China commercialized truce, which temporarily reduced reciprocal tariffs from triple-digit levels to astir 30%, is acceptable to expire. Many analysts accidental they expect President Donald Trump to widen the truce by different 90 days arsenic some sides question to debar escalating the commercialized war.
  • Aug. 12, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July user terms ostentation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.24%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 5.35%
  • Aug. 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases July user terms ostentation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3% vs. Prev. 2.9%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.8% vs. Prev. 2.7%
  • Aug. 13, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases July ostentation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 1.6%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 39.4%
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market, $0.12
  • Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.02
  • Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market
  • Aug. 14: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market
  • Aug. 15: Sharplink Gaming (SBET), pre-market
  • Aug. 15: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.07
  • Aug. 18: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.12

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is voting to name ChainSecurity and Certora arsenic associated information provers with ZeroShadow handling incidental effect nether a $2 million, 12-month COMP-streamed fund starting Aug. 18. Voting ends Aug. 13.
  • Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Lido to big a tokenholder update Call.
  • Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Stacks to big a townhall meeting.
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating proviso worthy $53.38 million.
  • Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating proviso worthy $40.35 million.
  • Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating proviso worthy $17.36 million.
  • Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating proviso worthy $17.81 million.
  • Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating proviso worthy $42.77 million.
  • Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating proviso worthy $91.6 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 11: SatLayer (SLAY) and Celeb Protocol (XCX) to beryllium listed connected Binance Alpha.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done Aug. 31.

• Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
• Day 1 of 3: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
• Day 1 of 7: Ethereum NYC (New York)
• Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
• Aug. 15: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Vancouver)
• Aug. 17-21: Crypto 2025 (Santa Barbara, California)
• Aug. 18-21: Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 (Jackson Hole, Wyoming)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• LayerZero Foundation proposed acquiring Stargate (STG) and folding its token system into the LayerZero (ZRO) ecosystem, consolidating some protocols’ cross-chain infrastructure nether a azygous governance and rewards asset.
• The program would person each STG into ZRO astatine a fixed swap ratio, retiring STG entirely.
• Stargate span revenues — which generated $939,000 for stakers implicit the past 3 months — would beryllium redirected to LayerZero, with imaginable ZRO buybacks funded from these revenues.
• Stargate’s existent fixed-yield staking programme would beryllium discontinued. Former STG holders would alternatively enactment successful LayerZero’s broader token system without a dedicated output mechanism.
• LayerZero argues the merger volition streamline governance, trim overlap and ore worth successful 1 token, positioning the combined level for stronger web effects.
• Early assemblage absorption was mixed: Some STG holders accidental the swap undervalues their tokens compared with humanities highs and existent income streams, portion others privation improved presumption oregon alternate incentives to offset mislaid yield.
• If approved, the determination would beryllium 1 of the largest token mergers successful this cycle’s layer-1 ecosystem, mounting a precedent for however tightly linked protocols negociate governance consolidation and gross redistribution.

Derivatives Positioning

• Bitcoin's aboriginal Monday rally failed to animate accrued enactment successful derivatives, wherever futures unfastened involvement (OI) remains pinned beneath 700K BTC. That's notably little than precocious July's 742K BTC highest and points to a spot-driven rally oregon hazard aversion among traders.
• Ether OI ticked higher to 13.68 cardinal ETH from 12.70 cardinal ETH, indicating request for leveraged plays. The tally remains good beneath the July highest of 15.30 cardinal ETH.
• Capital is flowing into altcoin derivatives, arsenic XMR, UNI and BCH pb unfastened involvement maturation among apical 25 tokens by marketplace value. That's not needfully bullish due to the fact that lone BCH, BTC, BNB, UNI and HYPE boast affirmative OI-adjusted cumulative measurement deltas (CVDs), a motion of nett buying pressure. The 24-hour CVDs for different coins were negative.
• On Deribit, options-based implied volatility word operation for ether was inverted, pointing to stronger request for short-term options. This, coupled with affirmative call-put skews, indicates marketplace euphoria, a concern characterized by speculative request for contiguous bullish plays.
• Bullishness returned to longer word BTC options arsenic prices topped $120,000.
• BTC artifact flows for August person mostly featured volatility selling strategies. In the past 24 hours, immoderate traders bought upside telephone strikes by selling OTM puts.
• In ETH's case, idiosyncratic bought Sept. 26 expiry $4,100 enactment portion selling $4,300 telephone successful the aforesaid expiry.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 3.76% from 4 p.m. ET Friday astatine $121,289.53 (24hrs: +2.69%)
• ETH is up 5% astatine $4,261.1 (24hrs: +1.43%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 2.8% astatine 4,198.32 (24hrs: +1.96%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bp astatine 2.91%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine -0.0022% (-2.409% annualized) connected KuCoin

• DXY is up 0.1% astatine 98.28
• Gold futures are down 2.17% astatine $3,415.40
• Silver futures are down 1.52% astatine $37.96
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.85% astatine 41,820.48
• Hang Seng closed up 0.19% astatine 24,906.81
• FTSE is up 0.18% astatine 9,112.40
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.13% astatine 5,340.88
• DJIA closed connected Friday up 0.47% astatine 44,175.61
• S&P 500 closed up 0.78% astatine 6,389.45
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.98% astatine 21,450.02
• S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged astatine 27,758.68
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.32% astatine 2,658.01
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is down 2.5 bps astatine 4.258%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.11% astatine 6,420.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged astatine 23,730.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.22% astatine 44,375.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 60.73% (0.4%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03518 (-1.26%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 912 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $59.38
• Total Fees: 3.07 BTC / $363,812
• CME Futures Open Interest: 136,815 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 35.9 oz
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 10.14%

Technical Analysis

• BTC's dominance rate, which measures the cryptocurrency's stock of the full crypto marketplace value, is investigating the semipermanent rising transmission support.
• A breakdown could mean the onset of the long-awaited "alt season," a play marked by comparatively bigger rallies successful alternate cryptocurrencies.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Friday astatine $395.13 (-1.71%), +4.17% astatine $411.60 successful pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $310.54 (-0.08%), +4.62% astatine $324.90
• Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $159.03 (+3.99%), +2.2% astatine $162.53
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $27.78 (-1.1%), +5.11% astatine $29.20
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $15.38 (-3.57%), +5.01% astatine $16.15
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $11.08 (-4.32%), +4.6% astatine $11.59
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $14.41 (+0.42%), +0.97% astatine $14.55
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $10.07 (-6.06%), +3.77% astatine $10.45
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $24.96 (-1.62%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $36.13 (-3.76%), +3.76% astatine $37.49
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $31.9 (+1.79%), +0.25% astatine $31.98
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $23.92 (+2.4%), +9.53% astatine $26.20

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily nett flows: $403.9 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $54.41 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs:

• Daily nett flows: $461 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $9.83 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.72 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• BTC's futures-to-spot measurement ratio has tanked to the lowest since October 2022.
• That's a motion of a rally being driven by spot marketplace demand.

While You Were Sleeping

• Corporate America's Recession Fears Plummet Despite the Highest Average Tariff Rate Since 1910 (CoinDesk): Mentions of "recession" connected S&P 500 second-quarter net calls fell to conscionable 16, down from 124 successful first-quarter calls and the lowest fig since the 4th fourth of 2021.
• BofA Poll Shows Record Number of Investors Say Stocks Overvalued (Bloomberg): Despite improving sentiment astir the U.S. economy, BofA’s survey shows currency levels astatine a sell-signal threshold. The survey recovered 16% of money managers underweight U.S. equities and 49% seeing emerging markets arsenic undervalued.
• Watch Out Below: Bitcoin’s Weekend Surge Leaves CME Gap (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s play rally near a spread betwixt Friday’s adjacent and Monday’s unfastened successful CME futures. Traders accidental bitcoin often drops backmost to the earlier closing terms earlier resuming an upward trend.
• Bitcoin Bulls Takes Another Shot astatine the Fibonacci Golden Ratio Above $122K arsenic Inflation Data Looms (CoinDesk): Traders connected Deribit are betting connected bitcoin reaching $140,000. One strategist says a U.S. halfway CPI supra estimates whitethorn spark volatility but astir apt won’t derail expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
• American Companies Are Buying Their Own Stocks astatine a Record Pace (The Wall Street Journal): Fueled by beardown net and taxation cuts, U.S. firms spent $983.6 cardinal connected buybacks this year. Tech and banking giants led the spree, though immoderate pass this diverts funds from semipermanent investment.
• U.S. Government to Take Cut of Nvidia and AMD AI Chip Sales to China (The New York Times): Following a White House gathering past week, the companies accepted a revenue-sharing information for export licenses, prompting warnings this could erode U.S. technological enactment and beforehand China’s AI ambitions.

In the Ether