6 months ago
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
You cognize however it feels erstwhile you're watching a match, some teams people and you extremity up with a draw? So, that's the bitcoin marketplace close now.
The bulls pushed prices supra $103,000 aboriginal Thursday, lone for the bears to wound back, crashing prices to $91,000. As it stands, we’re trading steadily astir $98,000. Talk astir undecided ...
The clang shook retired leveraged crypto futures bets worthy astir $1 billion, bringing a grade of normality to what had go an overheated market. That's perchance a blessing successful disguise, due to the fact that had BTC surged each the mode up to $120,000, the eventual leverage shakeout would person been adjacent much terrible and could person perchance damaged capitalist confidence.
The glass-half-full position is supported by bitcoin spot ETFs, which managed to propulsion successful a nett $766 cardinal contempt the chaos.
But there's a glass-half-empty broadside too. The ProShares Ultra Short Bitcoin ETF, which tracks doubly the inverse of bitcoin’s regular performance, besides saw a nett inflow arsenic good arsenic grounds trading volume. While the $7 cardinal added is tiny compared with the agelong spot ETFs, it shows the bears are acceptable to marque their beingness felt.
If it each feels a small shaky, there's much to come, with the accidental of downside volatility if U.S. nonfarm payrolls information points to a resilient labour marketplace and sticky wage pressures. That would punctual a recalibration of Fed rate-cut expectations and perchance wounded crypto prices. Weak data, conversely, could output a terms bounce, though trading directionally mightiness beryllium tricky portion prices are this indecisive.
In different news, President-elect Donald Trump's assignment of David Sacks arsenic Crypto and AI Czar (which mightiness look similar the other of crypto’s decentralization ethos) is being viewed positively for Solana’s ETF prospects. Why? Because astatine 1 point, Sacks was associated with the crypto hedge money Multicoin, 1 of Solana's aboriginal investors. It seems farfetched, but hey it's a emblematic bull-market narrative.
Looking astatine the broader market, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is rapidly approaching the $4.6 cardinal marketplace worth of Arbitrum's ARB token successful a determination that indicates application-specific furniture 2s similar Hyperliquid are becoming the "real worth seizure mechanisms for DeFi applications," according to Gautham Santosh, laminitis of Polynomial Protocol.
Gautham noted connected X that gathering connected general-purpose furniture 2s could mean constructing idiosyncratic else's moat, fundamentally translating your occurrence into their token value. He points retired that portion Arbitrum-based perpetual protocol GMX generates 54% much gross than Hyperliquid, its marketplace headdress stands astatine conscionable $376 cardinal oregon conscionable 8% of Hyperliquid's.
That's a batch to instrumentality successful for today. So, arsenic trader Alex Kruger said connected X, "If you're not a full-time trader, absorption connected portfolio construction." Stay alert retired there!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02.
Macro
Dec. 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November’s <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm" target="_blank">Employment Situation Report</a>.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Est. 200K vs Prev. 12K.
Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs Prev. 4.1%.
Average Hourly Earnings MoM Est. 0.3% vs Prev. 0.4%.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY Est. 3.9% vs Prev. 4.0%.
Dec. 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November’s <a href="https://www.bls.gov/cpi/" target="_blank">Consumer Price Index (CPI)</a> data.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.3%.
Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.6%
Dec. 11, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada announces its <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/" target="_blank">policy involvement rate</a> (also known arsenic overnight people complaint and overnight lending rate). Prev. 3.75%.
Dec. 12, 8:15 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its latest <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/mopo/html/index.en.html" target="_blank">monetary argumentation decision</a> (three cardinal involvement rates).
Deposit installation involvement complaint Prev. 3.25%.
Main refinancing operations involvement complaint Prev. 3.4%.
Marginal lending installation involvement complaint Prev. 3.65%.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
TK
Unlocks
Solana's Jito to merchandise 105% of JTO circulating proviso connected Dec. 7 astatine 10 a.m., worthy astir $500 cardinal astatine existent prices.
Neon to merchandise 50% of NEON circulating proviso connected Dec. 7 astatine 10 a.m., worthy $35 cardinal astatine existent prices.
Token Launches
Binance lists Across Protocol's ACX and Orca's ORCA, trading to statesman astatine 8 a.m.
Futures of PolyhedraZK's ZKJ went unrecorded connected OKX.
Conferences:
Dec. 6: <a href="https://www.digitalfinancesummit.com/" target="_blank">Digital Finance Summit Summit 2024</a> (Brussels)
Dec. 7: <a href="https://www.myswitzerland.com/en-gb/experiences/events/konferenz-bitcoin-baden-2024" target="_blank">Bitcoin Baden 2024</a> (Baden, Switzerland)
Dec. 9 - 12: <a href="https://adfw.com/" target="_blank">Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2024</a> (Abu Dhabi, UAE)
Dec. 9 - 13: <a href="https://www.blockchainweek.lu/" target="_blank">Luxembourg Blockchain Week 2024</a>
Dec. 12 - 13: <a href="https://www.globalblockchainshow.com/" target="_blank">Global Blockchain Show</a> (Dubai)
Dec. 12 - 14: <a href="https://www.taipeiblockchainweek.com/" target="_blank">Taipei Blockchain Week 2024</a> (Taipei, Taiwan)
Dec. 16 - 17: <a href="https://theblockchainassociation.org/policy-summit-2024/" target="_blank">Blockchain Association’s Policy Summit</a> (Washington)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa Ethereum and Base memecoin mog (MOG) surged 40% to acceptable caller highs Friday connected the backmost of a Coinbase spot marketplace listing. It becomes the second-largest cat-themed token down Solana-based popcat (POPCAT)
The memecoin is known for its distinctive branding astir the meme of a feline laughing with tears (often represented by the "joycat" emoji 😹) and sporting Pit Viper sunglasses. This token doesn't boast immoderate intrinsic utility, thriving alternatively connected its community-driven ethos and the virality of meme civilization wrong the cryptocurrency space.
Meme coins often trust connected assemblage hype, and MOG has successfully captured a zeitgeist with its humorous and culturally resonant branding driving demand.
Its cult assemblage often appears to 'mog' different token communities (a slang word for outperforming) connected societal posts oregon successful replies connected X — and that has go a meme itself, further fueling the token’s popularity.
Derivatives Positioning
BTC and ETH perpetual backing rates person normalized from antecedently overheated levels, with the ETH complaint remaining elevated compared with BTC, suggesting a bullish bias for the ETH/BTC ratio. The positioning successful SOL perpetuals is adjacent much bullish.
The unfastened interest-normalized cumulative measurement delta has declined for astir large tokens successful the past 24 hours, indicating that the sell-off chiefly resulted from the unwinding of agelong positions alternatively than caller shorts.
Despite BTC's speedy retrace to sub-$100K levels, calls proceed to commercialized astatine a premium to puts, though the dispersed is narrower than it was aboriginal Thursday. A akin dynamic is observed successful ETH options.
A ample bull telephone dispersed crossed the portion connected Deribit, involving a agelong presumption successful the $106,000 onslaught telephone and shorting the $110,000 onslaught call, some expiring connected Dec. 27, according to information root Amberdata.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.82% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday to $98,196.16 (24hrs: -4.05%)
ETH is up 0.27% astatine $3,870.06 (24hrs: -1.93%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.29% to 3,954.73 (24hrs: -3.32%)
Ether staking output is down 5 bps to 3.22%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0165% (18.05% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is unchanged astatine 105.80
Gold is up 1.12% astatine $2656.00/oz
Silver is up 1.73% to $31.67/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -0.77% astatine 39,091.17
Hang Seng closed +1.56% astatine 19,865.85
FTSE is unchanged astatine 8,354.46
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.56% astatine 4,979.24
DJIA closed connected Thursday -0.55% to 44,765.71
S&P 500 closed -0.19% astatine 6,075.11
Nasdaq closed -0.18% astatine 19,700.26
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.15% astatine 25,635.73
S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.37% astatine 2,368.14
U.S. 10-year Treasury was unchanged astatine 4.18%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged astatine 6,083.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged astatine 21,465.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged astatine 44,846.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 55.76% (0.10%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03937 (1.08%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 800 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $63.02
Total Fees: 14.28 BTC/ $1.4M
CME Futures Open Interest: 518K BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 37.3 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 10.62%
Bitcoin sitting successful over-the-counter table balances: 423.84k
Basket Performance
Technical Analysis
The illustration shows the dollar scale (DXY), which tracks the U.S. currency's worth against large peers, has dived retired of a trendline, characterizing the steep rally from precocious September lows.
Renewed losses successful DXY volition apt easiness fiscal conditions further, supporting much risk-taking successful fiscal markets.
TradFi Assets
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed connected Tuesday astatine $386.4 (-4.83%), up 0.47% astatine $388.23 successful pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $320.57 (-3.13%), up 0.83% astatine $323.24 successful pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$27.65 (-0.22%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $24.79 (-4.51%), down 0.69% astatine $24.96 successful pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $12.32 (-4.86%), up 0.16% astatine $12.34 successful pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $16.94 (-3.03%), down 1% astatine $16.77 successful pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $13.93 (-5.11%), up 0.5% astatine $14.00 successful pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $28.91 (-2.07%), up 0.83% astatine $29.15 successful pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $58.55 (-7.65%), up 1.95% astatine $59.69 successful pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett inflow: $766.7 million
Cumulative nett inflows: $33.03 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.092 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett inflow: $428.5 million
Cumulative nett inflows: $1.32 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.158 million.
Source: <a href="https://farside.co.uk/" target="_blank">Farside Investors</a>
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The regular stablecoin transportation measurement has surged to astir $150 billion, the astir since May.
Stablecoins are wide utilized to money cryptocurrency purchases, derivatives trading and to determination superior crossed borders.
While You Were Sleeping
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/12/05/trump-names-david-sacks-as-ai-and-crypto-czar" target="_blank">Trump Names David Sacks arsenic 'AI and Crypto Czar'</a> (CoinDesk): President-elect Donald Trump appointed David Sacks arsenic his czar for artificial quality and cryptocurrency, aiming to boost U.S. enactment successful these sectors. Sacks, a PayPal seasoned and task capitalist, volition prioritize cryptocurrency regularisation and safeguarding escaped code portion addressing concerns implicit Big Tech bias.
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-05/macron-says-he-will-serve-out-remainder-of-his-term-until-2027" target="_blank">Macron Vows to Serve Remainder of Term arsenic French President</a> (Bloomberg): French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to service retired his word done 2027, calling for unity aft his authorities was ousted successful a no-confidence vote. He pledged to name a caller premier curate wrong days to signifier a authorities and code France’s stalled fund crisis.
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/05/memecoins-reach-140-b-market-cap-and-gain-ground-in-crypto-economy" target="_blank">Memecoins Reach $140B Market Cap and Gain Ground successful Crypto Economy</a> (CoinDesk): Memecoins, led by dogecoin, person grown 330 percent successful marketplace worth since Jan. 1, and present relationship for 3.16% of the crypto marketplace and 5.27% of full trading volume. The maturation of caller tokens and enactment connected platforms similar Solana has raised questions astir the sector’s semipermanent stability.
<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/359a95ec-72b2-4e83-b16f-4778fc7f2834" target="_blank">Investors Poured $140B Into U.S. Stock Funds After Trump Election Victory</a> (Financial Times): The S&P 500 climbed 5.3 percent successful November arsenic investors poured $139.5 cardinal into U.S. equity funds, the strongest monthly inflow connected record, driven by optimism implicit President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-growth agenda. Meanwhile, equity markets successful emerging economies, Europe, and Japan suffered important outflows amid commercialized hostility fears.
<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/06/india-keeps-interest-rate-unchanged-amid-rising-inflation-risks-and-a-slowing-economy-.html" target="_blank">India’s Central Bank Revises Down Economic Growth Forecast for 2025, Keeps Interest Rate Steady</a> (CNBC): India's cardinal slope held its benchmark involvement complaint dependable astatine 6.5% connected Friday, citing a request to equilibrium rising ostentation with economical growth. It besides reduced banks’ currency reserve ratio by 50 ground points to 4.0% to enactment liquidity. The RBI downgraded its fiscal 2025 GDP maturation forecast to 6.6%, reflecting concerns implicit a slowing economy.
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/05/top-nft-brand-pudgy-penguins-to-release-pengu-token" target="_blank">Top NFT Brand Pudgy Penguins to Release PENGU Token</a> (CoinDesk): Pudgy Penguins, a apical NFT collection, plans to motorboat a token called PENGU connected Solana this year, with 23.5% of its 88 cardinal proviso reserved for holders of related NFTs. Despite the NFT marketplace downturn, Pudgy Penguins’ beardown taste relevance positions it good successful a marketplace present favoring memecoins implicit NFTs.
In the Ether
English (US) 