Bitcoin Traders Warn of 12% Monthly Drop as Solana Leads Majors Gains

Bitcoin’s (BTC) descent into September comes with an uncomfortable reminder for traders that past is not connected their side.

The largest token by marketplace capitalization has declined successful 9 of the past 14 September months, with an mean monthly nonaccomplishment of astir 12%.

This seasonality looms ample again successful 2025. Bitcoin opened the week adjacent $110,000, its weakest level successful astir 2 months, and full crypto marketplace capitalization has slipped to $3.74 trillion, reaching a three-week low.

BTC prices person been level implicit the past 24 hours, with Solana’s SOL (SOL) starring gains astatine 4%, XRP (XRP) posting 1% and Cardano’s ADA (ADA) rising 1.5%.

Traders say the operation of macro uncertainty, fragile sentiment, and thinning volumes leaves small country for mistake heading into what has historically been the toughest period connected the calendar.

The technicals don’t animate overmuch assurance either. Alex Kuptsikevich, main marketplace expert astatine FxPro, noted that the broader capitalization illustration “continues to grounds a bid of little lows, signaling a downward trend.”

He pointed to Bitcoin’s nonaccomplishment to clasp $112,000 and warned of “further diminution toward the $105,000 area,” a level that has agelong acted arsenic enactment earlier the intelligence $100,000 barrier.

The crypto fearfulness scale has slipped backmost toward 40, its lowest since April, suggesting nerves are rising earlier they’ve afloat broken.

In 2017, bitcoin dropped astir 8% successful September contempt the euphoric rally that carried it to $20,000 aboriginal that year. In 2019, the token mislaid astir 14% successful September, foreshadowing months of sideways action.

Even successful the latest cycle, September 2021 and 2022 some saw steep drawdowns, reminding traders that liquidity drains and macro jitters often coincide with the extremity of summer.

This year, those headwinds are disposable successful ETF flows. After dependable accumulation done overmuch of August, spot bitcoin ETFs successful the U.S. recorded nett outflows of $440 cardinal past week.

Ether ETFs, which launched conscionable past year, posted much than $1 cardinal successful inflows, marking a uncommon agleam spot but besides a motion that superior whitethorn beryllium rotating alternatively than increasing overall.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant information shows spot ETFs person present absorbed much than 1.3 cardinal BTC, astir 6% of full supply, putting them connected par with the largest exchanges for marketplace share.

The hazard is that enactment levels interruption earlier macro alleviation arrives. Non-farm payrolls owed Friday are expected to amusement conscionable 45,000 caller jobs, confirming a slowing U.S. labour market.

A brushed people would fortify the lawsuit for a September complaint chopped from the Fed, a catalyst that could flip sentiment backmost to risk-on. Until then, traders are paying up for downside hedges.

Options information shows the strongest request for puts successful weeks, with skew leaning firmly bearish, FxPro’s Kuptsikevich noted, calling for caution among intra-day traders.