Bitcoin price taps $117K as traders brace for Fed rate cuts

Key takeaways:

• Fed interest-rate chopped likelihood for contiguous are present 100%.

• BTC terms whitethorn emergence to all-time highs if cardinal absorption level astatine $118,000 is broken.

Bitcoin (BTC) roseate to a four-week precocious supra $117,000 connected Wednesday, arsenic traders expect volatility terms swings earlier and aft the Federal argumentation determination connected involvement complaint cuts. 

100% accidental of involvement complaint cuts

There is simply a 96% accidental of a 25 bps chopped astatine the Sept. 17 FOMC meeting, with a 4% probability of the rates being reduced by 50 bps, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Fed people complaint probabilities for Sept. 17 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Polymarket betters person besides locked in a 25 bps alteration astatine 93% for today’s FOMC meeting, with likelihood for a 50 bps simplification astatine 5%. 

Related: Bitcoin stuck astatine $116K absorption until ‘decisively reclaimed,’ says Bitfinex

Odds from some the CME FedWatch and Polymarket are gathering for a three-cut way toward the extremity of the year.

However, immoderate marketplace commentators accidental that immoderate volatile terms enactment from involvement complaint cuts is already priced in.

Traders person present turned their absorption to the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s code aft the FOMC meeting. Powell, who has been under unit from US President Donald Trump to little involvement rates, antecedently hinted astatine involvement cuts, saying the prevailing ostentation and the labour marketplace situation warranted adjustments.  

Therefore, the marketplace volition keenly ticker Powell’s connection astatine the FOMC quality league to spot if determination is immoderate displacement successful tone.

“Markets are locked connected the FOMC Wednesday, with a 25 bps chopped priced in,” said backstage wealthiness manager Swissblock successful a Tuesday station connected X, adding that traders volition beryllium focusing connected “Powell’s stance nether the spotlight for hints.”

Swissblock managers besides pointed retired that either way, volatility is guaranteed, adding:

“Bitcoin’s Risk Index volition usher whether BTC’s bullish operation holds oregon if a sell-off looms connected the horizon.”

Bitcoin hazard index. Source: Swissblock

Meanwhile, Bitcoin expert AlphaBTC said that BTC terms could archetypal emergence to $118,000 connected Wednesday earlier retracing aft the FOMC determination is confirmed.

Where to adjacent for BTC price?

Bitcoin indispensable flip absorption astatine $118,000 into support to proceed its uptrend toward all-time highs and yet into terms discovery. 

“Bitcoin keeps dilatory grinding higher, present pushing into the 116.5K-118K absorption area,” said crypto expert Jelle successful an X station connected Wednesday, adding:

“Break 118K and clasp supra it, and caller all-time highs are next.”

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Jelle

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC terms “attacking” the absorption betwixt $117,500 and $118,500, which is simply a large sign, according to MN Capital laminitis Michael van de Poppe.

“Quite usually it's conscionable a tally earlier a drop.”— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 17, 2025

Van de Poppe’s investigation suggested that if absorption astir $118,000 is taken out, it could trigger a run-up determination toward the $120,000 and aboriginal to the all-time highs astatine $124,500.

On the downside, a cardinal country of involvement lies betwixt $116,800 and $114,500, a scope the terms has held betwixt Sept. 10 and Sept. 16.

Below that, the adjacent determination would beryllium a retest of the $112,000 intelligence level, which is besides the 100-day elemental moving average.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.