Bitcoin Faces CME Gap Ahead of 'Uptober:' Crypto Daybook Americas

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC), up 2.5% successful the past 24 hours, has created a CME futures gap betwixt $110,000 and $111,335. That's the quality betwixt its prices erstwhile the CME marketplace closed for the week connected Friday and reopened connected Sunday.

Ether (ETH) is showing a akin setup. That has gained 3.4% and near a futures spread starting astir $4,000.

The happening astir CME futures gaps is that they thin to get filled. With the 2 largest cryptocurrencies presently trading higher, that means they some — astatine immoderate constituent — are apt to driblet backmost and retest those little levels.

Bitcoin’s monthly low often tends to hap wrong the archetypal 10 trading days, meaning this dip could get wrong the adjacent 2 weeks. That's adjacent though October, often referred to arsenic “Uptober,” is historically its second-best performing period with an mean instrumentality of 22%.

More broadly, the CoinDesk 20 Index has gained 3.2% successful the past 24 hours with each members successful the green.

Outside of crypto, precious metals stay firm, with gold climbing 1.5% connected Monday to $3,815 and metallic approaching each clip highs astatine $47, with the adjacent breakout level astatine $50.

Macro markets are focused connected Friday’s highly influential U.S. jobs report, with nonfarm payrolls, a measurement of caller jobs excluding workplace enactment and definite categories, expected astatine 39,000 alongside a dependable 4.3% unemployment rate. ISM Services PMI is forecast astatine 52, indicating continued enlargement of the world's largest economy.

For bitcoin to interruption retired of its existent $110,000 to $120,000 trading range, volatility and sentiment volition request to return. The 4th quarter, which starts connected Wednesday, could supply the catalyst. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Sept. 29, 8:00 p.m.: PancakeSwap (CAKE) discontinues enactment for Polygon zkEVM liquidity pools and Perpetual V1 orderbook. Users indispensable retreat funds by the deadline.
• Macro
  • Sept. 29, 7:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a code connected "Payments" successful Frankfurt.
  • Sept. 29, 10:30 a.m.: Sept. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Prev. -1.8)
  • Sept. 29, 1 p.m.: U.S. agencies SEC and CFTC clasp a roundtable connected regulatory harmonization efforts. Watch live.
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Lido DAO is voting connected the plan and implementation of its Lido V3 upgrade, which among different things introduces staking vaults (stVaults) that let users to prime circumstantial staking operators. Voting ends Sept. 29.
• Unlocks
  • Nothing scheduled.
• Token Launches
  • Sept. 29: Anoma (XAN) to beryllium listed connected KuCoin.
  • Sept. 29: Ronin (RON) treasury buybacks begin.
  • Sept. 29: Falcon Finance (FF) to beryllium listed connected Binance, BingX, KuCoin, Gate.io, Bitget and others.

Conferences

• Sept. 29: CoinFerenceX Singapore
• Day 1 of 2: Sonic Summit 2025 (Singapore)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• Plasma’s autochthonal token, XPL, is opening to chill disconnected pursuing its red-hot trading debut. The Tether-backed token is changing hands astatine $1.29, down 12% implicit the past 24 hours, arsenic regular trading measurement slipped 9% to $2.3 billion.
• On-chain activity, however, tells a antithetic story, with deposits rising 13.7% to $5.5 cardinal successful the aforesaid period. Much of that superior is flowing into yield-generating products similar Plasma Saving Vaults, which presently connection astir 20% annualized returns connected lending vaults.
• The operation of charismatic yields and accelerated inflows has helped Plasma rapidly ascent the blockchain rankings, already overtaking Coinbase-backed Base successful presumption of full worth locked, according to information from DeFiLlama.
• While trading enactment for XPL has cooled, inflows suggest beardown capitalist appetite during a comparative lull successful the wider crypto markets arsenic assets similar BTC and ETH fell backmost to respective levels of enactment astatine the process extremity of past week.
• It remains to beryllium seen however good Plasma and its protocols fare during a bullish marketplace phase, but the stablecoin-focused blockchain has already earned its fruits erstwhile the marketplace is nether pressure.

Derivatives Positioning

• Overall BTC futures unfastened involvement has dropped to astir $29 cardinal from a caller precocious of $32 billion, indicating that traders are reducing their exposure.
• At the aforesaid time, the three-month annualized ground remains compressed astatine astir 6%, making the ground commercialized little profitable.
• In essence, the marketplace is showing a wide displacement from a bullish bias arsenic traders unwind their agelong positions and a increasing fig of shorts participate the market.
• In options, the BTC Implied Volatility Term Structure shows an upward-sloping curve portion the 25 delta skew for short-term options (1-week, 1-month) has increased, suggesting that immoderate traders are paying a premium for calls implicit puts, indicating a bullish bias.
• This is straight contradicted by the 24-hour put-call volume, which shows puts dominating with 58.43% of contracts traded, a motion that a ample fig of traders are inactive seeking downside protection.
• The divergence suggests a highly polarized marketplace wherever immoderate are betting connected a short-term rally portion others are actively hedging against further declines, starring to a authorities of indecision and mixed sentiment.
• BTC backing rates person precocious turned negative, suggesting a increasing bearish sentiment. After holding dependable for astir of the week, the annualized backing complaint connected Hyperliquid dropped importantly to a antagonistic -6%. This indicates a beardown condemnation from traders who are shorting BTC connected that platform.
• Meanwhile, backing rates connected large venues similar Binance and OKX stay adjacent neutral. The wide trend, peculiarly the crisp driblet connected Hyperliquid, suggests that traders are actively taking hazard disconnected the array and positioning for a diminution successful BTC prices.
• Coinglass information shows $350 cardinal successful 24 hr liquidations, with a 24-76 divided betwixt longs and shorts. ETH ($130 million), BTC ($52 million) and SOL ($37 million) were the leaders successful presumption of notional liquidations. Binance's liquidation heatmap indicates $113,000 arsenic a halfway liquidation level to monitor, successful lawsuit of a terms rise.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 2.54% from 4 p.m. ET Friday astatine $112,164.29 (24hrs: +2.49%)
• ETH is up 3.1% astatine $4,136.88 (24hrs: +3.38%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 2.76% astatine 3,985.34 (24hrs: +3.2%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 9 bps astatine 2.81%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine -0.0012% (-1.2855% annualized) connected Binance

• DXY is down 0.19% astatine 97.96
• Gold futures are up 0.76% astatine $3,838.10
• Silver futures are up 0.73% astatine $46.99
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.69% astatine 45,043.75
• Hang Seng closed up 1.89% astatine 26,622.88
• FTSE is up 0.58% astatine 9,338.77
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.14% astatine 5,507.35
• DJIA closed connected Friday up 0.65% astatine 46,247.29
• S&P 500 closed up 0.59% astatine 6,643.70
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.44% astatine 22,484.07
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.1% astatine 29,761.28
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.43% astatine 2,920.80
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is down 4.4 bps astatine 4.143%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.51% astatine 6,730.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.64% astatine 24,885.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.4% astatine 46,741.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.61% (0.11%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03687 (-0.16%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,051 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $49.78
• Total Fees: 2.19 BTC / $241,364
• CME Futures Open Interest: 134,900 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 29.6 oz
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 8.35%

Technical Analysis

• Ether has rebounded from the 100-day exponential moving average, reclaiming crushed supra the cardinal intelligence level of $4,000. While this betterment signals resilience, the short-term inclination remains tilted to the downside, with the 50-day EMA — presently adjacent $4,210 — acting arsenic contiguous resistance.
• For bullish momentum to build, traders volition beryllium watching intimately to spot if ETH tin proceed to respect play enactment and found acceptance supra the caller play plaything low.
  

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed connected Friday astatine $312.59 (+1.92%), +2.26% astatine $319.66 successful pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed astatine $126.99 (+1.87%), +1.98% astatine $129.50
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $30.90 (-3.78%), +3.27% astatine $31.91
• Bullish (BLSH): closed astatine $62.59 (+1.23%), +1.9% astatine $63.78
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $16.13 (+0.37%), +2.67% astatine $16.56
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $17.69 (+5.68%), +3% astatine $18.22
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $16.85 (+0.06%), +2.08% astatine $17.20
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $12.96 (-5.26%), +3.16% astatine $13.37
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $40.61 (-3.68%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $28.51 (-1.35%), +2.81% astatine $29.31

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed astatine $309.06 (+2.78%), +2.3% astatine $316.17
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $28.31 (-6.29%), +2.3% astatine $28.96
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $16 (-1.9%), +1.94% astatine $16.3 1
• Upexi (UPXI): closed astatine $5.22 (-1.23%), +1.63% astatine $5.30
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed astatine $2.56 (+0.79%), +4.3% astatine $2.67

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flows: -$418.3 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $56.78 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flows: -$248.4 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $13.14 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.52 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Swift to Build a Blockchain-Based Ledger for Financial Firms (Bloomberg): The archetypal prototype, developed successful collaboration with much than 30 banks, volition usage Joe Lubin-led Consensys' exertion for real-time cross-border payments.
• Revolut Weighs $75B Dual Listing successful New York and London (Sunday Times): The determination could beryllium a ballot of assurance for London's fiscal halfway and would marque fintech the archetypal institution to simultaneously database successful New York and participate the FTSE 100.
• Economists Favour Christopher Waller to Lead Fed but Expect Trump to Pick a Loyalist (Financial Times): Economists surveyed by the FT expect Kevin Hassett, seat of the White House’s National Economic Council, to prevail, citing Trump’s absorption connected loyalty and assertive complaint cuts.
• Maple Finance to Tie Into Elwood to Bring Institutional Credit Strategies On-Chain (CoinDesk): The integration is meant to springiness banks and plus managers smoother introduction into integer recognition markets by pairing on-chain lending strategies with organization trading and hazard systems.
• Fear and Hope successful Venezuela arsenic U.S. Warships Lurk (The New York Times): As U.S. warships ellipse and threats intensify, Venezuelans stay divided betwixt calls for foreign-backed authorities change, fearfulness of chaos aft Maduro and weary resignation that small volition change.