Altcoin Rally Fizzles as Ether Turns 10: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding its ain arsenic the broader crypto marketplace declines successful the run-up to today's Federal Reserve monetary argumentation determination and a slew of information aboriginal this week.

The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has fallen 1.6% successful the past 24 hours, portion bitcoin is unchanged astir $118,300. Ether, which celebrates its 10th day today, has mislaid astir 0.8%, a motion of increasing disillusion with altcoins (See Token Talk).

While the Fed is expected to clasp involvement rates dependable — the CME’s FedWatch instrumentality points to a 98% accidental rates stay unchanged and Polymarket shows 97% likelihood of nary alteration — there's plentifulness of macroeconomic uncertainty successful the pipeline, not slightest July unemployment information owed Friday, which is besides the deadline for President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, expected to affect astatine slightest 2 twelve countries.

Still, the Fed’s determination carries added value amid governmental unit from Trump to chopped the complaint and signs of dissent wrong the Fed’s board.

On a affirmative enactment for exchange-traded funds, the SEC approved in-kind redemptions for spot bitcoin and ether ETFs. That means authorized participants tin swap ETF shares straight for crypto alternatively than needing to transact via cash, a determination that volition easiness volatility and creaseless the transaction.

The displacement comes arsenic spot ETFs are booming. This month, full nett inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $6 cardinal and into ether ETFs $5.4 billion, according to SoSoValue data. Spot ether ETFs are present successful an 18-day inflow streak.

The Ethereum blockchain day sees the web enjoying important adoption as it adapts to innovations successful the industry.

“With regulatory clarity, stablecoin rails, DeFi dominance, RWA applications and ETF flows converging, Ethereum isn’t chasing the adjacent communicative — it’s aiming to go the organization instauration that underwrites it,” Bitwise wrote successful a study shared with CoinDesk.

The SEC’s determination is the archetypal large crypto-facing determination nether its caller chair, Paul Atkins, signaling a much unfastened stance toward integer assets. Still, the marketplace is caught betwixt increasing structural adoption and short-term macroeconomic jitters. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 31, 12 p.m.: A unrecorded webinar featuring Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Bitzenship laminitis Aleesandro Palombo discussing bitcoin’s imaginable to go a planetary reserve currency amid dedollarization trends. Registration link.
  • Aug. 1: The Helium Network (HNT), present moving connected Solana, undergoes its halving event, cutting yearly caller token issuance to 7.5 cardinal HNT.
  • Aug. 1: Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance takes effect, introducing a licensing authorities to modulate stablecoin activities successful the city.
  • Aug. 1: New Bretton Woods Labs volition motorboat BTCD, which it says is the archetypal afloat bitcoin-backed stablecoin, connected the Elastos (ELA) mainnet, a decentralized blockchain secured by merged mining with bitcoin and overseen by the Elastos Foundation.
  • Aug. 15: Record day for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who conscionable pre-distribution requirements.
  • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives volition launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
• Macro
  • July 30, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (preliminary) Q2 GDP maturation data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.8%
  • July 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (Advance Estimate) Q2 GDP data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. -0.5%
    • GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 2.2% vs. Prev. 3.8%
    • GDP Sales QoQ Prev. -3.1%
    • PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3.7%
    • Real Consumer Spending QoQ Prev. 0.5%
  • July 30, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its monetary argumentation determination and publishes the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The property league follows astatine 10:30 a.m. Livestream link.
    • Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% Prev. 2.75%
  • July 30, 1:30 p.m.: Uruguay's National Statistics Institute releases June unemployment complaint data.
    • Unemployment Rate Prev. 7.8%
  • July 30, 2 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its monetary argumentation decision. Federal funds rates are expected to stay unchanged astatine 4.25%-4.50%. Chair Jerome Powell’s property league follows astatine 2:30 p.m.
  • July 30, 5:30 p.m.: Brazil’s cardinal bank, Banco Central bash Brasil, announces its monetary argumentation decision.
    • Selic Rate Est. 15% vs. Prev. 15%
  • July 31, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases June unemployment complaint data.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 6% vs. Prev. 6.2%
  • July 31, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases June user income and expenditure data.
    • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.7%
    • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.1%
    • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.3%
    • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.4%
    • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev.-0.1%
  • July 31, 11 a.m.: Colombia's National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases June unemployment complaint data.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 9.1% vs. Prev. 9%
  • July 31, 2 p.m.: Colombia's cardinal bank, Banco de la República (BanRep), releases its monetary argumentation decision..
    • Policy Rate Est. 9% vs. Prev. 9.25%
  • Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs instrumentality effect connected imports from commercialized partners that failed to scope agreements by this date. For astir countries, the baseline tariff volition beryllium successful the 15-20% range.
  • Aug. 1, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July employment data.
    • Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 147K
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.1%
    • Government Payrolls Prev. 73K
    • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. 0K vs. Prev. -7K
  • Aug. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services information for Brazil.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 48.3
  • Aug. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services information for Canada.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 45.6
  • Aug. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) July manufacturing and services information for U.S.
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 52.9
  • Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases July U.S. services assemblage data.
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 49
  • Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (final) July U.S. user sentiment data.
    • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 61.8 vs. Prev. 60.7
  • Aug. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services information for Mexico.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.3
  • Aug. 1 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases July user terms ostentation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.13%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 1.69%
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • July 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.31
  • July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.39
  • July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.19
  • July 31: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, -$0.10
  • July 31: Sequans Communications (SQNS), pre-market
  • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 4: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market, -$0.22
  • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
  • Aug. 7: Coincheck (CNCK), post-market
  • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
  • Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
  • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Euler DAO is voting to activate presently disabled fees successful the Euler Lending protocol. Voting ends July 30.
  • NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR’s inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators indispensable o.k. the connection for it to pass, and if truthful it could beryllium implemented by precocious Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1.
  • Compound DAO is voting to select its adjacent Security Service Provider (SSP). Delegates are choosing betwixt ChainSecurity & Certora, and Cyfrin. Voting ends Aug. 5.
• Unlocks
  • July 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating proviso worthy $22.1 million.
  • Aug. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating proviso worthy $166.3 million.
  • Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating proviso worthy $23.35 million.
  • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating proviso worthy $13.51 million.
  • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating proviso worthy $51.12 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 31: PlaysOut (PLAY) to beryllium listed connected Binance Alpha, MEXC, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done Aug. 31.

• Aug. 6-7: Blockchain.Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
• Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
• Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
• Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
• Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York)
• Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
• Aug. 21-22: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• The crypto marketplace went done the long-awaited "altcoin season" past week, with bitcoin's consolidation starring to superior rotation into the much speculative altcoin market.
• In erstwhile cycles these periods of melodramatic upside for altcoins lasted weeks, adjacent months. This time, though, it seems to person lasted conscionable a fewer days earlier the marketplace shed its newfound gains.
• In the past 7 days the likes of FLOKI, FAR and WIF person each mislaid much than 20% and treble digit declines are contiguous crossed the board.
• CoinMarketCap's altcoin play indicator has returned backmost to levels seen during the archetypal fractional of the year, indicating that the outlook for altcoins is bleak due to the fact that overmuch of the organization attraction is connected bitcoin.
• However, if BTC tin interruption retired of its existent scope and signifier a caller grounds precocious above, say, $130,000, earlier entering a play of consolidation, that changes the narrative. Such a question lays the groundworks for a repetition of past week's short, but exciting, altcoin season.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC, SOl, ETH and XRP futures unfastened involvement has dropped successful the past 24 hours with the crypto marketplace witnessing immoderate $300 cardinal of liquidations.
• Annualized backing rates successful BTC and DOGE stay elevated comparative to different large coins adjacent 10%, pointing to pronounced bullish sentiment successful these markets.
• The apical 25 tokens by marketplace worth person seen nett selling pressure, arsenic evidenced by the antagonistic unfastened interest-adjusted cumulative measurement deltas.
• On Deribit, BTC short-term puts traded astatine a flimsy premium portion ETH options showed telephone bias crossed each tenors.
• Block flows implicit Paradigm featured butterfly strategies and hazard reversals successful BTC.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.23% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday astatine $117,740.73 (24hrs: +0.00%)
• ETH is up 0.28% astatine $3,774.875 (24hrs: -0.89%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.28% astatine 3,961.08 (24hrs: -1.38%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps astatine 2.93%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.002% (2.19% annualized) connected KuCoin

• DXY is unchanged astatine 98.82
• Gold futures are up 0.12% astatine $3,385.20
• Silver futures are down 0.26% astatine $38.19
• Nikkei 225 closed unchanged astatine 40,654.70
• Hang Seng closed down 1.36% astatine 25,176.93
• FTSE is down 0.21% astatine 9,117.40
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.22% astatine 5,391.08
• DJIA closed connected Tuesday down 0.46% astatine 44,632.99
• S&P 500 closed down 0.30% astatine 6,370.86
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.38% astatine 21,098.29
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.49% astatine 27,539.88
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.02$ astatine 2,599.74
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is unchanged astatine 4.332%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged astatine 6,409.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.12% astatine 23,481.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged astatine 44,808.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 61.65% (0.28%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03214 (-0.12%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 896 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $58.88
• Total Fees: 5.07 BTC / $599,372
• CME Futures Open Interest: 140,340 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 35.5 oz
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 10.04%

Technical Analysis

• Gold has enactment successful 4th consecutive monthly candle with a agelong precocious shadiness (wick), marking bull nonaccomplishment supra $3,400.
• The repeated rejection supra $3,400 calls for reassessment of the bullish presumption and signals imaginable for a terms pullback.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Tuesday astatine $394.66 (-2.26%), +3.03% astatine $406.60 successful pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $371.44 (-2.12%), +3.19% astatine $383.30
• Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $181.64 (-2.01%), +3.15% astatine $187.36
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $26.76 (-9.59%), +9.39% astatine $29.27
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $16.61 (-3.21%), +3.25% astatine $17.15
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $13.6 (-6.27%), +6.4% astatine $14.47
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $13.19 (-4.04%), +4.32% astatine $13.76
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $11.73 (-2.49%), +2.64% astatine $12.04
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $24.91 (-4.67%), +4.05% astatine $25.92
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $36.6 (-6.75%), +7.92% astatine $39.50
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $31.63 (-4.76%), +8.13% astatine $34.20
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $19.08 (-8.82%), -0.1% astatine $19.06

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $80 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $55.03 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $218.6 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $9.64 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.67 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• While BTC's terms deed grounds highs successful July, progressive addresses held good beneath the highest successful September.
• The discrepancy shows that the terms rally is chiefly driven by firm treasury adoption and not on-chain activity.

While You Were Sleeping

• XRP Futures Volume connected Kraken Eclipses Sol for 1st Time arsenic Price Soars to Record (CoinDesk): XRP’s 40% terms surge and rising U.S. derivatives enactment bespeak optimism aft ineligible clarity and governmental shifts. Still, SOL leads successful planetary unfastened interest, signaling higher speculative positioning.
• Industry Experts Warn Crypto Infrastructure Is ‘Creaking’ (ComputerWeekly): A caller study warns cryptographic systems are aging poorly, with near-term vulnerabilities and a looming menace from quantum computers that could interruption public-key encryption wrong 5–15 years.
• ARK Invest Buys Another $15.3M Worth of Ether Strategy Firm BitMine Immersion (CoinDesk): ARK added 477,498 shares of BitMine (BMNR) crossed 3 of its ETFs. BMNR closed Tuesday astatine $32, down 8.9%, extending its descent from a $135 highest earlier this month.
• Thailand and Cambodia Stepped Back From War, but Their Temple Fight Remains (The New York Times): With Thai forces blaming Cambodia for renewed clashes, officials volition convene Monday alongside Malaysian observers, yet sovereignty disputes and home governmental posturing proceed to endanger hopes for lasting calm.
• Strong Footsie, Strong UK? Not Necessarily (CNBC): Despite its beardown 2025 show and grounds highs, the FTSE 100 owes its gains to overseas exposure, a antiaircraft assemblage tilt and a anemic pound, not to U.K. economical strength.
• Russia Builds a New Web Around Kremlin’s Handpicked Super App (Bloomberg): Max, a caller state-backed app for chat, payments and nationalist services, is the latest measurement successful Russia’s broader propulsion to regenerate Western tech platforms with home-grown alternatives.

In the Ether