Will Bitcoin bulls secure $110K before BTC’s $13.8B options expiry?

3 weeks ago

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin bulls purpose to propulsion BTC supra $110,000 by May 30 to capitalize connected $4.8 cardinal successful telephone options.
Spot BTC ETF inflows and anemic enactment positioning springiness bulls a beardown borderline successful the monthly expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its largest monthly options expiry of 2025, with full vulnerability reaching $13.8 billion. This lawsuit gives bulls a accidental to unafraid Bitcoin’s terms supra $110,000, arsenic bears were caught disconnected defender by a 25% rally implicit the past 30 days.

The unfastened involvement successful Bitcoin enactment (sell) options stands astatine $6.5 billion, but 95% of these positions are acceptable beneath $109,000. Therefore, if Bitcoin’s terms holds adjacent existent levels, little than $350 cardinal worthy of enactment options volition stay applicable astatine expiry.

Conversely, the unfastened involvement successful Bitcoin telephone (buy) options up to $109,000 totals $3.8 billion. Still, this imbalance does not mean each telephone enactment holder was betting connected Bitcoin’s rise. Some traders whitethorn person sold these options arsenic a mode to hedge their exposure supra definite terms levels.

Among the astir important enactment strategies traded astatine Deribit successful the past 2 weeks is the “short call,” which is often utilized by investors seeking a fixed-income instrumentality arsenic agelong arsenic Bitcoin’s terms stays supra a peculiar threshold. Similarly, the “bull telephone spread” strategy hedges against downside hazard by sacrificing gains supra a definite price.

Strong Bitcoin ETF inflows trim the likelihood of further terms decline

If Bitcoin maintains the $109,000 level, astir bullish strategies should present affirmative results successful the May options expiry. However, bears whitethorn effort to power BTC futures markets to bounds their losses arsenic the expiry day approaches.

The full unfastened involvement successful Bitcoin futures is presently $79 billion, showing beardown request for short (sell) positions. Still, this strategy could backfire if Bitcoin rises supra $110,000, arsenic bears mightiness beryllium forced to adjacent their positions.

Net inflows of $1.9 billion into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) betwixt May 20 and May 22 bespeak that request supra $105,000 remains robust. Ultimately, bears’ main anticipation lies successful a weaker macroeconomic environment, which could summation hazard aversion and trim request for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin bulls purpose for $110,000 by May 30

Below are 4 apt scenarios based connected existent terms trends. These outcomes estimation theoretical profits based connected unfastened involvement imbalances and bash not relationship for analyzable strategies.

Between $102k and $105k: $2.75 cardinal successful calls (buy) vs. $900 cardinal successful puts (sell). The nett effect favors the telephone instruments by $1.85 billion.
Between $105k and $107k: $3.3 cardinal calls vs. $650 cardinal puts, favoring calls by $2.65 billion.
Between $107k and $110k: $3.7 cardinal calls vs. $350 cardinal puts. favoring calls by $3.35 billion.
Between $110k and $114k: $4.8 cardinal calls vs. $120 cardinal puts, favoring calls by $4.7 billion.

Bulls tin maximize their gains by driving BTC supra $110,000, which could assistance acceptable a caller all-time high. However, the ongoing bullish momentum depends connected developments successful the ongoing tariff war, which has been a cardinal absorption successful caller weeks.

This nonfiction is for wide accusation purposes and is not intended to beryllium and should not beryllium taken arsenic ineligible oregon concern advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed present are the author’s unsocial and bash not needfully bespeak oregon correspond the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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