7 months ago
The decentralized prediction marketplace level Polymarket has wide outlines for resolving bets connected the 2024 US Presidential Election successful the lawsuit of contested results.
The platform’s market, focusing connected whether Donald Trump oregon Kamala Harris volition triumph the presidency, volition beryllium resolved based connected calls from 3 large quality organizations: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
If each 3 bash not unanimously state the aforesaid campaigner arsenic the victor by the inauguration connected Jan. 20, 2025, the marketplace volition settee according to who is officially inaugurated arsenic President.
This mechanics addresses imaginable scenarios wherever predetermination outcomes are disputed oregon delayed. Traders’ positions volition stay unsettled until a definitive effect is established. However, arsenic Bitget reported, the governance token for Polymarket’s UMA oracle strategy has a marketplace headdress of conscionable $244 million, perchance making markets susceptible fixed the $2.3 cardinal successful measurement the predetermination marketplace has acquired.
Are Polymarket manipulation concerns valid?
Further, concerns person emerged regarding the imaginable ‘manipulation’ of betting likelihood connected the platform. A constricted fig of accounts person placed important wagers favoring Trump. Newsweek highlighted this, raising questions astir however important bets mightiness power nationalist cognition and the integrity of the marketplace during a contested election.
However, Jim Bianco has besides pointed to ample bets successful favour of Harris implicit caller days, which momentarily moved the marketplace by up to 4%.
Additionally, CryptoSlate has reported connected the persistent betting successful favour of Trump from a fistful of Polymarket whales implicit the past fewer weeks. The investigation assessed that less than $6 million would beryllium required to determination the marketplace by ample percentages owed to debased bid publication liquidity.
Ultimately, Polymarket is simply a escaped and unfastened market, and claims of ‘manipulation’ are confusing fixed that the rules upon which the marketplace is built bash not look to beryllium abused.
Whether precocious condemnation oregon coordinated betting, the likelihood of the adjacent US President connected Polymarket are simply based connected the quality of trading connected the platform. It is simply a acold agelong to assertion ‘manipulation’ successful an unfastened marketplace wherever nary method mechanisms are exploited to change the odds.
Market solution amid contested elections
As the predetermination approaches, Polymarket’s reliance connected media outlets for marketplace solution does punctual discussions astir objectivity and imaginable biases. Media organizations whitethorn disagree successful their projections, particularly successful choky races, starring to prolonged uncertainty for traders. As The New York Times noted, this could interaction the platform’s quality to supply timely resolutions.
Ultimately, the last measurement successful the solution relies connected “who is inaugurated.” If listed media outlets bash not hold by inauguration day, the marketplace victor is determined by who yet takes up the White House.
Should the quality implicit the predetermination proceed done the courts, stopping a President from being inaugurated by Jan. 20, the Polymarket effect could beryllium delayed further.
Interestingly, the 20th Amendment to the US Constitution provides a framework for what happens if determination is nary president-elect by Inauguration Day. If the president-elect fails to qualify, the vice president-elect acts arsenic President until a caller president is qualified. If neither is qualified, Congress has the authority to find the adjacent steps, with the Speaker of the House being adjacent successful enactment according to the statesmanlike enactment of succession
If a contested predetermination leads to Speaker of the House Mike Johnson taking office, determination could beryllium galore disgruntled Polymarket traders.
While this is simply a hypothetical scenario, fixed the past of the 2020 election, the chances of a contested effect successful 2024 person increased. Although it is improbable neither campaigner volition beryllium elected connected inauguration day, determination is presently nary prediction marketplace for betting connected whether the predetermination volition beryllium contested.
The station What happens to Polymarket bets if effect of US Election is contested? appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.
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