2 weeks ago
Earlier this month, CoinDesk highlighted the rising request for the Deribit-listed $300,000 bitcoin BTC telephone option, noting it arsenic 1 of the astir fashionable bullish plays for the all-important June 4th expiry.
Now, this stake has go the astir fashionable successful the impending quarterly expiry, reinforcing its entreaty arsenic a "lottery ticket" for traders anticipating a bitcoin terms rally supra $300,000 by the extremity of the adjacent month.
At property time, the $300,000 telephone enactment was the astir fashionable stake successful the June 27 expiry, with a notional unfastened involvement of implicit $600 million, up from $484 cardinal 3 weeks ago, according to information root Deribit. Notional unfastened involvement represents the dollar worth of the fig of progressive oregon unfastened contracts astatine a fixed time. On Deribit, 1 options declaration represents 1 BTC.
"The June $300K BTC telephone options person emerged arsenic the onslaught with the highest unfastened involvement [in June expiry], reflecting assertive speculative positioning by traders anticipating continued upside," Deribit's Asia Business Development Head Lin Chen told CoinDesk.
"The operation of record-breaking volumes and concentrated options bets signals elevated marketplace confidence—and the imaginable for heightened volatility ahead," Chen added.
Deribit's notional options open involvement deed a grounds high of $42.5 cardinal past week. The momentum is mirrored successful the platform’s recently launched artifact RFQ (Request for Quote) system, registering a historical grounds of astir $1 cardinal successful regular volume.
A telephone enactment gives the purchaser the close but not the work to bargain the underlying asset, BTC, astatine a predefined terms connected oregon earlier a circumstantial date. A telephone purchaser is implicitly bullish connected the market.
The $300,000 telephone expiring connected June 27 represents a stake that bitcoin's terms volition emergence 3 times from the contiguous $110,000 to implicit $300,000 by the extremity of the archetypal half.
The stake sounds outlandish, arsenic the archetypal fractional volition extremity successful astir 4 weeks. But that's been the lawsuit lately connected Deribit, with traders progressively targeting upside imaginable done short-term options.
That is evidenced by front-end hazard reversals, measuring the request for calls comparative to puts implicit short-term, being pricier than those with longer maturities.
The illustration by Amberdata shows hazard reversals are affirmative crossed the board, indicating a bias for bullish telephone options. However, short-duration calls are pricer than longer-duration ones. Usually, the other is the case.
The inclination indicates a heightened appetite for quick-paced bullish bets among marketplace participants.
"The three-day Bitcoin Conference 2025 is each acceptable to commencement successful Las Vegas today, and truthful radical are speculating connected what caller bullish announcements volition beryllium released astatine the event," Chen explained.
Contrarian signal
The increasing request for short-duration calls could beryllium a contrarian awesome suggesting that speculative excess is often seen adjacent marketplace tops, according to Markus Thielen, laminitis of 10x Research.
Thielen said the options marketplace is flashing a warning, with the seven-day calls trading astatine a 10% premium to puts.
"The options marketplace is flashing a warning: Bitcoin’s skew, measuring the quality successful implied volatility betwixt puts and calls, has dropped to astir -10%, indicating calls are pricing successful importantly much volatility than puts," Thielen said successful a enactment to clients.
"This suggests traders are aggressively chasing upside alternatively than hedging downside risk. In our experience, specified utmost skew levels often bespeak highest bullish sentiment, a classical contrarian signal," Thielen added.
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