Stone Cold BTC Drains Bull Mood From Long-Term Options: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

It's said that terms is the champion measurement of entreaty of immoderate asset. To the dismay of bitcoin (BTC) bulls, the largest cryptocurrency's terms hasn't gone anyplace successful implicit 50 days, trading directionless supra $100,000.

That stagnation has, unusually, eroded the telephone bias successful semipermanent options. Risk reversals derived from Deribit-listed options expiring successful June adjacent twelvemonth are astir zero, indicating that calls (bullish) and puts (protective) are trading astatine akin levels. Historically, semipermanent hazard reversals person tended to beryllium positive, indicating a bias for calls.

"This [risk reversal] could easy spell antagonistic arsenic BTC continues to spot downside 'risk-off' volatility only," Greg Magadini, manager of derivatives astatine Amberdata, said successful an email. "Continued organization structural flows (sell the call, bargain the protective put) tin besides assistance propulsion this hazard reversal antagonistic long-term."

Speaking of organization flows, analysts noted that accordant purchases by Strategy (MSTR) and different companies are failing to offset the wide diminution successful spot request for BTC. Blockchain investigation has precocious indicated that semipermanent holding wallets are taking profits.

Some traders are focusing connected adjacent Tuesday's U.S. user terms information aft a decline in July Fed rate-cut likelihood pursuing Friday's hotter-than-expected jobs report. Meanwhile, popular civilization and authorities person collided with crypto, arsenic rapper Drake name-dropped bitcoin successful his latest way and Elon Musk announced the enactment of the America Party, which, helium said, would clasp BTC.

"These aren’t conscionable personage endorsements, they’re indicators of wherever the Overton model is shifting," Mena Theodorou, a co-founder astatine crypto exchange Coinstash, said successful an email. "Crypto’s taste relevance is intelligibly growing, and this benignant of mainstream attention, whether from artists oregon entrepreneurs, tends to filter done to capitalist assurance implicit time."

In different news, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik and researcher Toni Wahrstätter proposed EIP-7983 to acceptable a caller state bounds for transactions connected the blockchain. This is aimed astatine making it resilient to definite denial-of-service (DoS) attacks, improving stableness and offering predictable transaction costs.

Russia introduced a nationalist registry for cryptocurrency mining equipment, effectual contiguous to standardize the usage of Bitcoin and Ethereum mining instrumentality and heighten compliance with regulations.

In accepted markets, lipid prices dropped aboriginal Monday arsenic OPEC accrued production, but pared losses aboriginal owed to a choky carnal lipid market. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 9, 11 a.m.: The Isthmus hardfork activates connected Celo (CELO) mainnet, an Ethereum layer-2 network, aligning its L2 stack with Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and improving scalability, interoperability and information done cardinal Ethereum Improvement Proposals.
  • July 14, 10 p.m.: Singapore High Court hearing connected WazirX’s Scheme of Arrangement, marking a captious measurement successful the exchange's restructuring aft the $234 cardinal hack connected July 18, 2024.
  • July 15: Alchemist (ALCH) staking update launches, allowing token holders to involvement ALCH for entree to precocious features, premium benefits, and ecosystem rewards, perchance boosting token inferior and demand.
  • July 15: Lynq is expected to launch its real-time, interest-bearing integer plus colony web for institutions. Built connected Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury money shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous output accrual and improved superior efficiency.
• Macro
  • July 7: Day 2 of 2 of the 17th BRICS Summit (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil).
  • July 7: President Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu astatine the White House to sermon finalizing a 60-day Gaza ceasefire and staged merchandise of hostages held by Hamas.
  • July 8, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases May retail income data.
    • Retail Sales MoM Prev. -0.4%
    • Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.8%
  • July 9, 12:01 a.m.: End of the 90-day frost connected U.S. reciprocal tariffs announced connected April 2. This marks the deadline for commercialized partners to finalize agreements to debar higher duties. Treasury plans to notify countries that person yet to unafraid deals.
  • July 9, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) releases June user terms ostentation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.3%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.06%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.42%
  • July 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hybrid proceeding titled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets” with CEOs of Blockchain Association, Chainalysis, Paradigm and Ripple testifying. Livestream link.
  • July 9, 2 p.m.: Release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the June 17–18 meeting.
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • None successful the adjacent future.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is voting on invoking the aboriginal termination clause of its 2025 information concern with OpenZeppelin, giving the required 60-day announcement and paving the mode for a ceremonial RFP process managed by the Compound Foundation connected behalf of the DAO. Voting ends July 7.
  • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded outgo card to “to span the spread betwixt integer assets successful the Polkadot ecosystem and mundane spending.” Voting ends July 9.
  • Compound DAO is moving multiple votes connected whether to follow an Oracle Extractable Value (OEV) solution for Ethereum Mainnet, Unichain, Base, Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, Scroll, Mantle, Ronin, and Linea. Delegates tin take betwixt implementing Api3, Chainlink’s Secure Value Relay (SVR), oregon maintaining the existent setup without OEV. Voting for each of these ends July 12.
• Unlocks
  • July 11: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.31% of its circulating proviso worthy $10.28 million.
  • July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating proviso worthy $50.55 million.
  • July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating proviso worthy $14.51 million.
  • July 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1% of its circulating proviso worthy $14.67 million.
  • July 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating proviso worthy $31.13 million.
  • July 18: Official TRUMP (TRUMP) to unlock 45.35% of its circulating proviso worthy $782.73 million.
  • July 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating proviso worthy $88.8 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 7: OKX to delist trading pairs with Bitcoin SV (BSV), Guild of Guardians (GOG), DIA (DIA), BONE, and Orchid (OXT).

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done July 17.

• July 10-13: Mallorca Blockchain Days (Palma, Spain)
• July 16: Invest Web3 Forum (Dubai)
• July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
• July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
• July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
• July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• BonkFun overtook Pumpfun to go the apical Solana-based token launchpad, grabbing 55.2% marketplace share.
• The level has facilitated implicit $540 cardinal successful measurement crossed 175,000 token launches, generating $34 cardinal successful fees.
• Pumpfun, which debuted successful January 2024, present holds a 34.9% stock with $341 cardinal successful volume, down from a erstwhile ascendant position.
• BonkFun’s interest exemplary drives demand: 58% of fees spell toward buying BONK, with 50% of that burned and the remainder utilized for rewards and reserves.
• This operation creates changeless bargain unit connected BONK, a large-cap memecoin inactive trading beneath its peak.
• At existent rates, BONK buybacks could scope hundreds of millions annually, tightening token supply.
• Smaller rivals similar Believe, Jup Studio and Moonshot way acold down successful measurement and idiosyncratic traction.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC unfastened involvement (OI) successful perpetuals connected offshore exchanges has held mostly level successful the past 24 hours. For ETH, however, unfastened involvement roseate alongside affirmative backing rates, implying a request for bullish bets. Kucoin has seen implicit 20% summation successful OI successful ETH futures.
• Open involvement successful XRP perpetuals roseate 6% connected Sunday, the astir successful 4 weeks.
• Funding rates for BNB, TRX, BCH and XLM stay negative, indicating a bearish sentiment for these tokens.
• On Deribit, telephone bias has drained from longer word BTC hazard reversals. ETH's June 2026 expiry calls inactive commercialized astatine a flimsy premium of implicit 1% to calls.
• Block flows connected Deribit featured BTC telephone spreads and longs successful September and December higher onslaught BTC telephone options

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.97% from 4 p.m. ET Friday astatine $108,770.30 (24hrs: +0.71%)
• ETH is up 2.97% astatine $2,565.19 (24hrs: +2.21%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 2.46% astatine 3,101.28 (24hrs: +1.46%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps astatine 2.93%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0003% (0.3362% annualized) connected Binance

• DXY is up 0.22% astatine 97.39
• Gold futures are down 0.71% astatine $3,319.30
• Silver futures are down 0.89% astatine $36.76
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.56% astatine 39,587.68
• Hang Seng closed down 0.12% astatine 23,887.83
• FTSE is down 0.03% astatine 8,820.67
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.37% astatine 5,308.17
• DJIA closed connected Thursday up 0.77% astatine 44,828.53
• S&P 500 closed up 0.83% astatine 6,279.35
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.02% astatine 20,601.10
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.01% astatine 27,036.16
• S&P 40 Latin America closed connected Friday up 0.49% astatine 2,741.39
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is up 1.2 bps astatine 4.352%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.38% astatine 6,300.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.52% astatine 22,941.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.07% astatine 45,065.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 65.23% (-0.11%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02359 (0.21%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 880 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $58.92
• Total Fees: 4.01 BTC / $435.096
• CME Futures Open Interest: 151,005 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 32.7 oz
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 9.26%

Technical Analysis

• BONK's terms has convincingly topped the 200-day elemental moving mean (SMA) confirming the bullish trend. Prices failed to found a foothold supra the cardinal mean successful mid-May, which led to a deeper sell-off.
• The latest breakout has shifted absorption to absorption astatine $0.00002583, the precocious connected May 12.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Thursday astatine $403.99 (+0.43%), -0.41% astatine $402.35 successful pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $355.8 (+0.38%), -0.74% astatine $353.17
• Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $188.77 (+6.07%), +1.79% astatine $192.15
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $21.75 (-2.12%), -0.64% astatine $21.61
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $17.66 (-0.79%), -0.68% astatine $17.54
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $12.17 (-0.25%), -0.33% astatine $12.13
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $18 (+2.51%), -0.89% astatine $17.84
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $12.25 (-1.84%), -0.57% astatine $12.18
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $26.03 (+3.5%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $40.45 (+2.3%), -1.71% astatine $39.76
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $32.8 (+11.41%, +3.02% astatine $33.79

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $601.8 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $49.62 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.25 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $148.5 cardinal
• Cumulative nett flows: $4.42 cardinal
• Total ETH holdings ~4.16 million
• Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The illustration shows trading volumes successful bitcoin's spot and futures markets person dropped to $5 cardinal and $31.2 billion, the lowest for some successful implicit a year.
• Activity typically slows during the summer, often starring to anemic bid publication depth, which makes the marketplace terms susceptible to fewer ample orders.

While You Were Sleeping

• Trump Threatens Extra 10% Tariffs connected BRICS arsenic Leaders Meet successful Brazil (Reuters): On Sunday, Brazilian President Lula called connected BRICS to spearhead organization reforms, citing rising planetary instability since the G20 and framing the radical arsenic a modern successor to nonaligned powers.
• Bitcoin Whales Scoop Up BTC arsenic Price Nears Record High successful Sign of Growth Expectations (CoinDesk): Glassnode information suggests that ample bitcoin holders are accumulating arsenic the terms nears $109,000, portion smaller investors proceed to sell, signaling a proviso displacement from retail to perchance organization wallets.
• Metaplanet Picks Up Additional 2,205 BTC, Holdings Now Cross 15,555 Bitcoin (CoinDesk): Metaplanet’s latest bitcoin acquisition totaled 34.49 cardinal yen ($213 million), raising its full concern to 225.82 cardinal yen astatine an mean terms of 14.52 cardinal yen per bitcoin.
• The Blockchain Group Bolsters Bitcoin Reserves With $12.5M BTC Acquisition (CoinDesk): The steadfast confirmed acquiring 116 BTC for astir 10.7 cardinal euros ($12.51 million), raising its full holdings to 1,904 BTC and achieving a year-to-date BTC output of astir 1,348%.
• China and Russia Keep Their Distance From Iran During Crisis (The New York Times): Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center said the Iran situation showed however Russia and China prioritize self-interest implicit coordination, lacking the alliances oregon shared values seen among U.S. partners.
• Trump and Netanyahu to Meet arsenic New Middle East Tests Loom (The Wall Street Journal): Trump sees Israel-Hamas talks and Iran’s caller subject and diplomatic setbacks arsenic an opening to prosecute Saudi-Israel normalization, though advancement hinges connected Netanyahu’s Gaza warfare stance and Iran’s atomic position.

In the Ether