Record Q2, monthly close next? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

3 hours ago

Bitcoin (BTC) heads into a cardinal treble candle adjacent conscionable inches from records — can bulls enactment successful control?

Bitcoin order-book liquidity games proceed arsenic the monthly and quarterly adjacent sets the signifier for abrupt terms moves.
BTC/USD lone needs to adjacent June astatine $104,630 to seal its highest-ever monthly close.
A calm week for US macro information keeps attraction focused connected the Fed aft Powell’s Congressional testimony.
Bitcoin faces a “critical request deficit” arsenic purchaser powerfulness fails to lucifer organisation by semipermanent holders.
Does Bitcoin lone person 3 months of its bull marketplace left?

BTC terms volatility ramps up arsenic “games” return

A timely uptick connected June 29 placed BTC/USD connected way for its highest play adjacent connected grounds supra $109,000.

While this yet failed, a week-long trading scope continues to clasp arsenic June and Q2 travel to an end, information from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

At the clip of penning connected June 30, BTC/USD had already closed the latest “gap” successful CME Group’s Bitcoin futures marketplace created during the play moves.

$BTC Has opened up with a tiny CME spread below.

Keep an oculus connected this country arsenic we've beauteous overmuch seen each CME gaps capable astatine the commencement of the week, successful caller months. pic.twitter.com/QCxBUgShuO

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) June 30, 2025

Analyzing the close, which came successful astatine astir $108,400 connected Bitstamp, fashionable trader Skew attributed last-minute terms spot to a “predatory” algorithmic trading bot.

“Games are being played present frankincense acold but keeping a adjacent oculus connected flow,” helium summarized successful portion of an accompanying post connected X.

As portion of those “games,” Skew observed that the algorithm’s actions had pushed the marketplace to a constituent wherever it adjacent liquidated a $12 cardinal BTC abbreviated presumption earlier retracing its gains.

“This aforesaid entity pumped BTC 2 weeks ago, and BTC dumped the time aft that,” chap trader BitBull continued connected the topic.

As Cointelegraph reported, bid publication liquidity manipulation by large-volume traders has contributed to assorted terms fakeouts successful caller months.

A monthly adjacent dissimilar immoderate other?

With the play adjacent falling abbreviated of grounds highs, 2 different candles present travel into absorption connected BTC/USD.

The June monthly adjacent volition besides determine Q2 BTC terms performance, which presently envisages awesome 30% gains.

Even June itself, contempt ending up a rollercoaster of headline-driven volatility, is connected way to extremity up “green,” per information from monitoring assets CoinGlass.

Bitcoin traders are frankincense assured that this period could enactment arsenic a springboard for a stronger instrumentality to signifier next.

17 hours distant from locking successful different record-breaking monthly close.

Broke the January highs past period - retested them this month, and pushed higher erstwhile more.

July should beryllium adjacent better.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/UAsHi9Vt5Q

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) June 30, 2025

To seal the highest monthly adjacent of each time, BTC terms enactment indispensable lone clasp $104,630, giving bulls leeway for a astir 2.9% dip.

The limits to last-minute volatility could meantime beryllium decided by speech order-book liquidity.

Monitoring assets Material Indicators notes plentifulness of near-term terms magnets some supra and beneath existent levels.

“Ask liquidity is concentrated successful the $108k - $110k scope portion bid liquidity is distributed down to $98k which could invitation immoderate volatility implicit the adjacent 24 - 48 hours,” it summarized connected X alongside a people of Binance order-book liquidity.

Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan added that helium “expects” different liquidity drawback to the downside successful the future, contempt the imaginable of grounds candle closes.

Nonfarm payrolls owed arsenic marketplace cements rate-cut bets

The Independence Day vacation rounds disconnected what is ostensibly a quiescent week for US macroeconomic data.

Crypto and risk-asset traders tin frankincense intermission for thought arsenic an unprecedented divided betwixt Federal Reserve argumentation and governmental volition hangs successful the air.

While galore Fed officials and Chair Jerome Powell stay steadfast successful their determination not to chopped involvement rates, US President Donald Trump continues to openly knock their decisions.

This has included calling Powell a “stupid person” successful summation to claiming that the Fed is excessively precocious successful starting a caller rate-cut cycle, with Trump adjacent sparking rumors of Powell’s dismissal.

“For the clip being, we are good positioned to hold to larn much astir the apt people of the system earlier considering immoderate adjustments to our argumentation stance,” Powell told Congress astatine the commencement of 2 days of grounds past week.

While markets spot small accidental of a chopped coming astatine the adjacent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering astatine the extremity of July, the September gathering present has 75% likelihood of a 0.25% reduction, per the latest information from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

As Cointelegraph reported, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michaelle Bowman hinted that she would beryllium unfastened to a July chopped if information were to allow.

This week’s main constituent of interest, meanwhile, comes successful the signifier of nonfarm payrolls information connected July 3.

“Critical request deficit”

Bitcoin semipermanent holders (LTHs) are opening to origin interest arsenic Q2 comes to a close.

Reactivation of dormant coins, combined with the newly-mined supply, is presently outpacing request from buyers, probe warns.

In 1 of its “Quicktake” blog posts connected June 29, onchain analytics level CryptoQuant did not mince its words, describing the concern arsenic a “critical request deficit.”

“The travel of coins onto the marketplace from miners and profit-taking LTHs is present greater than what caller buyers are purchasing,” contributor Crazzyblockk wrote.

“This is simply a bearish improvement for 2 reasons: It straight increases the ‘for sale’ supply, putting downward unit connected the price. Selling by LTHs, often considered ‘smart money,’ tin awesome that experienced players judge the marketplace has reached a section top.”

CryptoQuant’s Apparent Demand metric, which subtracts LTH and newly-mined coins from purchaser pressure, is present antagonistic connected a rolling 30-day basis.

The past clip antagonistic Apparent Demand was recorded came arsenic BTC/USD emerged from multimonth lows nether $75,000 successful April.

“Consequently, the marketplace is successful a susceptible state. Any terms rallies from present volition apt conflict to flooded this question of disposable supply, and marketplace enactment whitethorn beryllium weaker than anticipated,” CryptoQuant concluded.

“While not a guarantee, this on-chain awesome powerfully suggests a play of caution is warranted until request shows wide signs of recovery.”

Time is ticking for the Bitcoin bull market

Bitcoin terms enactment whitethorn beryllium conscionable respective months distant from its adjacent bull marketplace top.

The latest commentary from fashionable trader and expert Rekt Capital includes references to humanities terms rhythm behaviour portion arguing that the blow-off apical whitethorn beryllium person than galore believe.

“If Bitcoin is going to highest successful its Bull Market successful September/October 2025 arsenic per humanities Halving cycles…,” helium told X followers successful 1 of respective caller posts connected the topic.

“That’s lone 2-3 months away.”

Rekt Capital noted that successful 2024, BTC/USD deed caller all-time highs up of docket earlier April’s artifact subsidy halving event. History, however, dictates that rhythm highs yet travel connected time.

“In 2024, Bitcoin was experiencing acceleration successful its rhythm by 260 days erstwhile it rallied to caller All Time Highs earlier the Halving. Since then, Bitcoin has reduced that acceleration to 0,” helium continued.

“In fact, what if Bitcoin is present experiencing a slowing down successful its cycle?”

If a slowdown is the case, BTC/USD should frankincense marque up for mislaid clip with important gains and a instrumentality to terms find sooner alternatively than later.

“It’s existent that Bitcoin’s archetypal Price Discovery Correction has lasted longer than usual. But Bitcoin tends to overperform and underperform successful antithetic phases successful the cycle,” Rekt Capital concluded.

“So erstwhile Bitcoin breaks retired into a parabolic rally, it would astir apt drastically trim immoderate ‘cycle extension’ BTC brought connected itself implicit the past respective months.”

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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