3 hours ago
A starring trader connected decentralized betting level Polymarket, who goes by the sanction JustWakingUp, is wagering that the Federal Reserve (Fed) volition chopped involvement rates by 50 ground points (bps) adjacent week.
According to X grip Polymarket Whales, JustWakingUp is the platform’s astir prolific trader, boasting astir $400 cardinal successful full trading measurement to day and profits exceeding $2 million.
The trader has placed a $15,000 stake that the Fed volition trim rates by 50 bps to 3.75% adjacent week and is already showing a 3% summation connected the presumption arsenic of writing. The trader stands to marque astir $226,000 if the Fed does chopped rates by 5 bps.
The market, however, mostly expects the Fed to present a 25 ground constituent chopped adjacent week, with the CME’s FedWatch Tool assigning a 91% probability to specified an outcome.
That said, the likelihood of a jumbo 50 bps chopped person surged to astir 10% pursuing Friday’s disappointing August jobs report, reflecting increasing expectations of much assertive easing. BlackRock and StanChart person called for a 50 bps cut.
Adding to marketplace expectations, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported connected Tuesday that the system added 911,000 less jobs successful the 12 months ending March 2025 than antecedently estimated, marking the largest yearly downward revision connected record.
Traders are present intimately watching Wednesday’s U.S. Producer Price Index and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index information releases. Softer-than-expected readings could adhd to expectations for a 50 bps cut, perchance sending bitcoin and stocks higher.
English (US) 