Polymarket odds suggest US elections will be decided by Pennsylvania

Vice President Kamala Harris overtook erstwhile President Donald Trump’s likelihood of winning successful Michigan and Wisconsin connected prediction marketplace Polymarket.

If Harris wins the 2 plaything states, the authorities of Pennsylvania volition go the deciding origin successful who wins the US statesmanlike election.

Current odds

The likelihood took a crisp crook successful favour of Harris successful 2 retired of six “battleground states” pursuing the work of a CNN poll conducted by SRSS connected Oct. 31, which showed nary wide vantage for either candidate.

As a result, Harris’ likelihood to triumph Wisconsin and Michigan grew by 5% and 6%, respectively. Additionally, her wide likelihood of winning the full predetermination grew from 2.3% to 39.6% but remained importantly beneath Trump’s 60.3%.

Trump has a 22.2% pb implicit Harris successful wide odds. He besides has a 14% pb successful Pennsylvania and a ample borderline successful the remaining 3 plaything states: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.

Furthermore, a report published by Galaxy Research shows that Trump is starring successful 18 antithetic venues, varying from proprietary models to prediction markets. However, the information revealed that astir results are tight, with the erstwhile president losing its pb connected 13 retired of 18 venues assessed.

Polymarket hits caller records

The heated US elections are driving Polymarket to interruption caller records. In October, the prediction marketplace reached 220,682 unsocial traders, a 174% maturation compared to September, according to a Dune Analytics dashboard created by idiosyncratic rchen8.

Moreover, the monthly trading measurement reached astir $2.3 billion, soaring 353% successful 1 month. This is apt tied to election-betting activity, arsenic 85% of the enactment connected Polymarket past period was related to this topic.

Recently, manipulation rumors connected Polymarket began to spread, with researchers from Chaos Labs stating successful an Oct. 30 Fortune report that the level is “rife with fake lavation trading.”

However, those claims were not proven, with voices specified arsenic Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction marketplace Kalshi, arguing that prediction markets’ likelihood are not manipulated.

The station Polymarket likelihood suggest US elections volition beryllium decided by Pennsylvania appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.