6 months ago
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
It's virtually raining BTC options! OK, not literally, but conscionable 2 weeks aft telephone and enactment contracts for BlackRock's spot bitcoin exchange-traded money (ETF) began trading, we present person Cboe cash-settled FLEX options connected some the Cboe Bitcoin U.S. ETF Index and the Cboe Mini Bitcoin U.S. ETF Index.
These options debuted without overmuch fanfare connected Monday and person opened up a caller "defined outcome" market, according to Jeff Park, the caput of alpha strategies astatine Bitwise. Park says they let for the customization of over-the-counter strategies portion wholly cutting retired counterparty risk. That paves the mode for innovative strategies focused connected main extortion and scope accrual astatine a clip erstwhile elephantine companies similar Microsoft mightiness beryllium contemplating a BTC investment.
But here's the dampener: BTC isn’t truly responding to each the excitement. The largest cryptocurrency is trading level adjacent $95,000 and investigating the patience of bulls who are itching for that landmark interruption supra $100K. The lackluster effect could beryllium a motion of marketplace exhaustion, particularly fixed whispers the U.S. authorities perchance moving to liquidate its holdings.
The dollar scale (DXY) is simply a spot tentative too, with traders holding occurrence till they spot Tuesday's U.S. JOLTS occupation report. Expectations are that vacancies roseate to 7.48 cardinal successful November from the erstwhile 7.44 million, per FXStreet. A hotter-than-expected fig could assistance the dollar, pb to reduced bets connected a Fed interest-rate chopped and enactment unit connected BTC.
Looking astatine the wider crypto market, large tokens similar ETH are mostly calm, though XRP and ADA are inactive riding a question acknowledgment to retail capitalist enthusiasm. Money is besides being rotated into darlings of the erstwhile bull tally similar LINK, which has gained 24% successful the past 24 hours. Even litecoin (LTC) is rising. One happening to enactment — XRP’s chaotic terms spikes person a past of marking large BTC and crypto marketplace tops, arsenic we'll spot successful our TA conception down below.
There are rumors flying astir that Solana is astir to denote thing large related to airdrops. <a href="https://x.com/EleanorTerrett/status/1863803574121050306" target="_blank">According to</a> Fox writer Eleanor Terrett, President-elect Donald Trump mightiness denote a replacement for the outgoing SEC-chair Gary Gensler's arsenic aboriginal arsenic Tuesday.
Now for thing jaw-dropping: Yield farming connected Avalanche-based TraderJoe is heating up with the astir traded pair, <a href="https://lfj.gg/avalanche/pool?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email" target="_blank">AVAX/USDC, offering</a> a 24-hour APR of implicit 1,000%. Can you judge it?
Investor request for stablecoins is going done the roof. Late Monday, annualized deposit rates for USDT and USDC changeable up to astir 30%, portion USDe spiked arsenic precocious arsenic 60% connected AAVE. Galois Capital is calling that a <a href="https://x.com/Galois_Capital/status/1863879264434532660" target="_blank">sign of froth</a>, truthful decidedly enactment alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02
Macro
Dec. 4, 4:00 a.m.: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) releases its latest <a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/economic-outlook.html" target="_blank">Economic Outlook</a>. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann and Chief Economist Álvaro Pereira volition contiguous the findings during an lawsuit that starts astatine this time. Livestream <a href="https://oecdtv.webtv-solution.com/82fd95cba31bb793658607a114db81ac/or/hybrid_launch_of_the_oecd_economic_outlook_2024.html" target="_blank">link</a>.
Dec. 4, 10:00 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) <a href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/" target="_blank">releases</a> November’s Services PMI report. Est. 55.5 vs Prev. 56.0.
Dec. 4, 1:40 p.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell takes portion successful a moderated treatment astatine <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/events/dealbook" target="_blank">The New York Times DealBook Summit</a> successful New York City.
Dec. 4, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/beige-book-default.htm" target="_blank">releases</a> the Beige Book, an economical summary utilized up of FOMC meetings.
Dec. 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm" target="_blank">releases</a> November's Employment Situation Report.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Est. 183K vs Prev. 12K.
Unemployment Rate Est. 4.1% vs Prev. 4.1%.
Average Hourly Earnings MoM Est. 0.3% vs Prev. 0.4%.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY Prev. 4%.
Token Events
Token unlocks
Dec. 3, 2 p.m.: EigenLayer volition unlock 0.69% of EIGEN, worthy nether $5 million.
Dec. 4, 2 a.m.: Ethena to unlock 0.44% of ENA, worthy conscionable implicit $10 million
Hacks
Scam Sniffer states $9.38 cardinal successful funds were stolen from 9,208 victims successful November. Overall crypto losses down 79% year-over-year.
Conferences:
Dec. 2 - 3: <a href="https://digiassetsconnect.wbresearch.com/" target="_blank">DigiAssets Connect 2024</a> (Geneva)
Dec. 2 - 3: <a href="https://digitaltransformationkuwait.com/" target="_blank">Digital Transformation Kuwait Conference 2024</a> (Kuwait)
Dec. 2 - 6: <a href="https://tcc.iacr.org/2024/" target="_blank">Theory of Cryptography Conference 2024</a> (Milan)
Dec. 3 - 4: FT’s <a href="https://banking.live.ft.com/" target="_blank">Global Banking Summit</a> (London)
Dec. 9 - 10: <a href="https://b.tc/conference/mena" target="_blank">Bitcoin MENA 2024</a> (Abu Dhabi)
Dec. 9 - 12: <a href="https://adfw.com/" target="_blank">Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2024</a> (Abu Dhabi)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa Virtuals Protocol AI cause @aixbt_agent — an autonomous bot that scours Crypto Twitter chatter and upcoming trends — was seemingly tricked into whipping up an thought for a $CHAOS token aft a user's query astir what the bot considered to beryllium the "ideal" token design.
CHAOS was automatically deployed by different AI cause based connected @aixbt_agent's X posts, with the marketplace headdress reaching implicit $17 cardinal wrong an hour. The bot (or its operators) person since tried to region it from the token, but its authoritative wallet has already received upward of $100,000 successful fees arsenic a stock of the full fees earned by floating CHAOS connected decentralized exchanges.
Derivatives Positioning
BTC's implied volatility word operation remains successful contango, but front-end puts are again trading astatine a premium to calls, reflecting interest the terms is astir to drop.
ETH's word operation is successful backwardation, with the beforehand extremity astatine an annualized 71% versus the backmost extremity astatine 68%. That's a motion traders are preparing for accrued turbulence successful the adjacent fewer weeks.
Options flows person been mixed, with enactment spreads lifted alongside notable bullish enactment successful the BTC Dec. 27 expiry telephone astatine the $180,000 strike.
In the past 7 days, respective tokens person accrued successful terms alongside an uptick successful perpetual futures unfastened interest. At the aforesaid time, they person seen a diminution successful the cumulative measurement delta (CVD), implying a nett selling pressure.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.3% from 4 p.m. ET Monday to $95,390.35 (24hrs: -0.52%)
ETH is down 0.13% astatine $3,612.17 (24hrs: -0.82%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 0.8% to 3,880.75 (24hrs: +6.51%)
Ether staking output is up 9 bps astatine 3.16%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.019% (20.7% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is down 0.21% astatine 106.22
Gold is up 0.35% astatine $2,643.8/oz
Silver is up 1.79% to $30.98/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +1.91% astatine 39,248.86
Hang Seng closed +1% astatine 19,746.32
FTSE is up 0.64% astatine 8,366.36
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.71% astatine 4,881.10
DJIA closed connected Monday -0.29% to 44,782.00
S&P 500 closed +0.24% astatine 6,047.15
Nasdaq closed +0.97% astatine 19,403.95
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.22% astatine 25,590.33
S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.47% astatine 2,317.19
U.S. 10-year Treasury was unchanged astatine 4.2%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged astatine 6061.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged astatine to 21209.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged astatine 44884
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 55.83% (-0.25%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.0378 (-0.43%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 716 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $60.13
Total Fees: 19.2 BTC/ $1.98 million
CME Futures Open Interest: 184,195 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 36.2 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 10.30%
Bitcoin sitting successful over-the-counter table balances: 420,605
Basket Performance
Technical Analysis
The illustration shows trends successful XRP and BTC implicit time.
Historically, crisp rallies successful XRP, often favored by retail investors, person occurred during the last stages of BTC's bull market.
XRP has surged implicit 300% successful 4 weeks, outperforming the broader marketplace by leaps and bounds.
TradFi Assets
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed connected Monday astatine $380.30 (-1.85%), down 0.35% astatine $378.95 successful pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $302.40 (+2.09%), up 0.82% astatine $304.88 successful pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$24.83 (-3.05%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $25.63 (-6.53%), down 2.61% astatine $24.98 successful pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $12.10 (-4.35%), down 0.41% astatine $12.05 successful pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $16.06 (-10.18%), up 1.06% astatine $16.23 successful pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $14.52 (+1.18%), down 6.96% astatine $13.51 successful pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $27.63 (-5.18%).
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $60.71 (+6.47%), down 1.17% astatine $60.00 successful pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett inflow: $353.6 million
Cumulative nett inflows: $31.03 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.079 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett inflow: $24.2 million
Cumulative nett inflows: $601 million
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.070 million.
Source:<a href="https://farside.co.uk/" target="_blank"> Farside Investors</a>
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
Long-term bitcoin holders are continuing to tally down their stashes, according to IntoTheBlock. They present clasp 12.45 cardinal BTC, the slightest since July 2022.
Their balances person fallen by 9.8% this cycle, compared with 15% successful 2021 and 26% successful 2017, IntoTheBlock said.
While You Were Sleeping
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/02/silk-road-bitcoin-worth-nearly-2-b-moved-to-coinbase-prime" target="_blank">Silk Road Bitcoin Worth Nearly $2B Moved to Coinbase Prime</a> (CoinDesk): On Monday, the U.S. authorities moved astir $2 cardinal successful seized bitcoin linked to Silk Road to Coinbase Prime, signaling imaginable sales. The 19,800 BTC transportation follows past authorities sell-offs that triggered marketplace drops, though bitcoin lone fell 1% to $95,800. The authorities inactive holds $18 cardinal successful seized crypto assets.
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/02/polymarket-retains-loyal-user-base-a-month-after-election-data-shows" target="_blank">Polymarket Retains Loyal User Base a Month After Election, Data Shows</a> (CoinDesk): Polymarket has maintained beardown enactment a period aft the U.S. election, with unfastened involvement rebounding to $115 cardinal and regular volumes stabilizing supra pre-election levels. Around 60% of bets stay nether $100, showing wide participation, portion progressive wallet numbers and divers marketplace involvement awesome the platform's maturation extends beyond election-driven speculation.
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-02/what-happens-if-french-government-falls-after-budget-showdown" target="_blank">France Faces ‘Moment of Truth’ With Government connected Brink of Collapse</a> (Bloomberg): Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and a leftist confederation filed no-confidence motions Monday against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, with votes required by aboriginal adjacent week. Budget uncertainty has rattled markets, driving up borrowing costs and weakening the euro, portion Barnier warns of fiscal turmoil if his authorities collapses.
<a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3289122/chinas-yuan-hits-lowest-level-months-trump-tariff-threats-roil-currencies" target="_blank">China’s Yuan Hits Lowest Level successful Months arsenic Trump Tariff Threats Roil Currencies</a> (South China Morning Post): The Chinese yuan has weakened to multimonth lows against the U.S. dollar pursuing Trump’s reelection, with the offshore yuan dropping beneath 7.3 per dollar. Fears of renewed commercialized disputes, superior outflows and tariff threats person pressured the currency, but analysts item home argumentation decisions arsenic cardinal to aboriginal exchange-rate stability.
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/03/ethena-partners-with-onchain-derivatives-protocol-derive-secures-5-of-drv-token-supply-for-s-ena-holders" target="_blank">Ethena Partners with Onchain Derivatives Protocol Derive, Secures 5% OF DRV Token Supply for sENA Holders</a> (CoinDesk): Ethena and Derive.xyz announced a concern that includes a multimillion-dollar assistance to the Lyra Foundation and 5% DRV token rewards for sENA holders. The integration of Ethena’s USDe collateral volition let Derive users to gain further output portion boosting liquidity and trading measurement crossed some platforms.
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/bitcoin-euphoria-threatens-to-break-these-etfs-eca74ca2" target="_blank">Bitcoin Euphoria Threatens to Break These ETFs</a> (The Wall Street Journal): Leveraged ETFs tied to MicroStrategy purpose to treble the company's regular returns but conflict to conscionable targets owed to constricted entree to swaps, forcing reliance connected options. Analysts accidental these ETFs amplify the stock’s volatility, arsenic regular adjustments necessitate marketplace makers to commercialized MicroStrategy shares to hedge their exposure.
In the Ether
English (US) 