Is BTC repeating path to $75K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

2 weeks ago

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the archetypal afloat week of August astatine a crossroads arsenic marketplace nerves harvester with a BTC terms bounce.

After bouncing from three-week lows, BTC terms enactment is fielding mixed targets with bigger August volatility expected.
The marketplace situation is present fundamentally antithetic from Bitcoin’s aged all-time highs from January, investigation says.
Macro conditions support the absorption connected the Federal Reserve arsenic September interest-rate chopped bets return.
Bitcoin hodlers staged a wide sell-off astatine the commencement of the month, with adjacent whales reducing exposure.
Demand for Bitcoin, however, remains firmly successful place, helping adhd discourse to short-term marketplace nerves.

$116,500 becomes caller BTC terms “magnet”

After wicking beneath $112,000 past week, Bitcoin is dividing sentiment arsenic information from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows a propulsion toward $115,000.

Concerns implicit a bigger BTC terms correction opposition with the content that the retracement is implicit and that BTC/USD is adjacent preparing caller all-time highs.

$BTC illustration couldn't beryllium much bullish.

Retest of erstwhile ATH ✅

Daily Close supra SMA 50 ✅

Now, BTC is looking bully for a caller ATH. pic.twitter.com/JZVFIr4Cjt

— BitBull (@AkaBull_) August 4, 2025

“$BTC Has continued its streak of mounting the precocious oregon debased wrong the archetypal week of the month. We'll person to spot if August is going to beryllium immoderate different,” fashionable trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized successful portion of his latest analysis connected X.

“What we bash cognize is that the existent monthly precocious ($116K) has a precise debased accidental of holding arsenic we've ne'er seen a monthly wick precocious this tiny successful the past 4 years.”

Daan Crypto Trades compared caller terms moves to those passim 2025, concluding that volatility has truthful acold been insufficient.

“The existent determination from precocious to debased is besides conscionable ~3.6%,” helium noted.

“There's besides a precise precocious likelihood we marque a larger determination this month. The smallest monthly debased to precocious quality wrong a period is astir 10% for BTC successful its past 4 years. This of people says thing astir direction.”

Fellow trader Crypto Caesar likewise eyed a “big bounce” for the commencement of the TradFi trading week portion comparing existent terms enactment to moves seen since May.

Analyzing speech order-book liquidity, fashionable commentator TheKingfisher meantime flagged $116,500 arsenic a cardinal level astatine which abbreviated BTC positions would get liquidated.

“Most traders are astir apt conscionable staring astatine the terms action, but astute wealth knows this is wherever the substance for a determination is,” helium told X followers Sunday, calling $116,500 a “magnet.”

Bitcoin inclination enactment holds cardinal to deja-vu terms action

When it deed aged all-time highs of $109,300 successful January, Bitcoin saw a retracement which proved to beryllium lengthy — and painful — for bulls.

By April, BTC/USD was plumbing multimonth lows nether $75,000, having enactment successful a drawdown versus the highs of implicit 30%.

Fast guardant fractional a year, and the brace is down astir 10% against its latest grounds peak, starring to comparisons with terms enactment from earlier successful the year.

For fashionable trader CrypNuevo, however, determination is small crushed to deliberation that Bitcoin volition simply repetition behaviour from aged highs.

“Is January's Price Action repeating now?” helium queried successful an X thread Sunday.

“The reversal PA was astir identical astatine the highs since it's a communal signifier for a pullback aft reducing momentum. However, the existent concern is precise antithetic and it's improbable PA repeats further.”

CrypNuevo noted that January saw a travel beneath the 50-day exponential moving mean (EMA), which past flipped to resistance.

The 50-day EMA trendline is presently adjacent $112,900, with terms seeing conscionable 1 regular adjacent beneath it connected Aug. 2.

“In January we saw the 1D50EMA becoming absorption - I uncertainty we spot that now. I deliberation a deviation beneath it to $110k enactment should apt clasp well,” the thread continues.

CrypNuevo said that “market operation and context” differed from January, pointing to the increasing likelihood of a US interest-rate cut successful September.

Consensus again favors September complaint cut

With little US economical information due, the Federal Reserve is itself successful the spotlight this week.

The standoff with President Donald Trump continues implicit involvement rates, which Fed Chair Jerome Powell and different officials opted not to chopped astatine their latest meeting.

Powell already faces calls to resign from Trump implicit policy, which the second views arsenic excessively restrictive and costly to the economy.

“Powell should beryllium enactment ‘out to pasture,’” Trump demanded successful a station connected Truth Social Aug. 1.

Mixed ostentation information and a beardown labour marketplace person allowed the Fed to clasp steadfast connected its course, but the most caller jobs figures formed uncertainty implicit however agelong complaint cuts tin beryllium avoided.

Market expectations whipsawed arsenic a result, but are present backmost to favoring an archetypal 0.25% chopped astatine the Fed’s adjacent gathering successful September, per information from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

In the coming days, determination volition beryllium speaking appearances from respective elder Fed figures, including Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, who previously signaled that she would beryllium unfastened to a July complaint cut.

Earnings results, meanwhile, proceed to travel successful against a backdrop of stiffening US commercialized tariffs.

“Volatility has returned arsenic August officially kicks disconnected with net play successful afloat swing,” trading assets The Kobeissi Letter summarized successful a thread connected X Sunday.

BTC terms dip unites ample and tiny sellers

Bitcoin dipping to caller three-week lows beneath $112,000 came amid an ongoing sell-off involving everyone from smaller retail investors to elephantine whales.

Data from onchain analytics level CryptoQuant tracked inflows to exchanges and concluded that a marketwide de-risking determination was successful progress.

On Aug. 1 alone, implicit 40,000 BTC hit exchanges astatine a loss compared to erstwhile it past moved — and this lone from short-term holders (STHs), entities hodling for six months oregon less.

At the aforesaid time, the speech whale ratio, which tracks the proportionality of inflows from whale wallets, reached “dominating” levels.

“When ample deposits coincide with whales dominating these deposits, the marketplace typically enters a signifier of selling unit and accelerated decline,” CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain wrote successful 1 of its “Quicktake” blog posts Saturday.

“If whales proceed to deposit Bitcoin to exchanges astatine the aforesaid pace, further unit connected the Bitcoin terms is expected.”

Bitcoin request “still here” — analysis

Taking a broader look astatine request dynamics, CryptoQuant comes to mixed conclusions, which should yet favour bulls.

While terms volatility has led to accelerated changes successful hodlers’ appetite to support erstwhile levels of BTC exposure, semipermanent trends amusement that Bitcoin is firmly successful demand.

“Some investors are astir apt starting to interest fixed the caller terms drop, particularly STH who are present either forced to recognize losses oregon clasp underwater positions. To measure whether the concern could worsen significantly, analyzing existent request is essential,” contributor Darkfost explained successful a “Quicktake” station Sunday.

Darkfost flagged the Apparent Demand metric, which measures newly-mined Bitcoin to the proviso that has stayed inactive for the past year.

“When the ratio drops beneath zero, it means request has turned negative; conversely, erstwhile it rises supra zero, it signals affirmative demand,” helium summarized.

“Currently, request remains intelligibly positive, with astir 160 000 BTC accumulated implicit the past 30 days.”

Accumulator wallets, which lone bargain BTC and person nary outgoing transactions, person upped vulnerability by 50,000 BTC implicit the past month.

A longer-term view, covering over-the-counter (OTC) deals, likewise shows a wide trend. OTC table holdings are present implicit fractional a cardinal BTC, compared to conscionable 145,000 BTC successful 2021.

“Whether we look astatine short-term oregon semipermanent demand, the representation remains broadly positive,” Darkfost concluded.

“There is nary large motion of interest from demand-side indicators, contempt caller terms volatility.”

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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