3 years ago
What does it mean to beryllium a “buyer of past resort” and however tin Bitcoiners navigate the volatility of the bitcoin markets present and successful the coming years?
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Transcript
[00:00:10] CK: Gentleman, the existent terms of Bitcoin is $21,311. This is the sixth installation of Bitcoin Tina connected Bitcoin. We're titling this the hardest commercialized portion two: becoming the purchaser of past resort. I americium CK and I americium ace excited to beryllium sitting backmost with Bitcoin Tina to bring you this adjacent installation of the peculiar bid Bitcoin Tina. Of people Bitcoin Tina's here, but besides person a rising prima and an unthinkable macro commentator successful the space, Joe Carlasare. Tina, invited back. Why don't you speech to america astir wherefore we're coming backmost for this sixth variation and wherefore Joe is joining us.
Bitcoin Tina: Hey CK. Hey Joe. I got to cognize Joe astir apt implicit the past 18 months done Clubhouse. We really met successful idiosyncratic astatine the conference. Joe has go truly 1 of my favourite Bitcoiners. I they're radical of guys who truly are favorites of excavation and they're favorites for a clump of reasons. They're truly astute people. They're amusive to bent retired with. They're amusive to speech to. Joe is truly smart. He has a wide cognition and knowing of economics, Bitcoin, law. He's a practicing attorney, and I person a batch of respect for Joe. I person large conversations with him. I deliberation we some spot the satellite successful precise akin regards and I I deliberation radical request to perceive Joe's wide reasoning and He is not lone a wide thinker, but he's large astatine expressing it. And truthful I considered him an highly bully friend. I americium genuinely blessed to person made a person similar Joe connected this travel successful Bitcoin. And I see myself truly rather lucky. I bully friends with CK. He's go a truly large friend. I americium truly truthful fortunate to person gotten to cognize specified good radical successful Bitcoin. And it's what makes Bitcoin truthful peculiar to me, not conscionable due to the fact that of what I deliberation Bitcoin volition bash for humanity, but due to the fact that immoderate of the truly champion radical who I've ever met successful my life. And I see myself precise lucky. I americium genuinely blessed successful that regard.
CK: We're decidedly fortunate to person gotten to cognize you, Tina, and, you know, our relationship has birthed this peculiar series. And a batch of radical would see it prophetic erstwhile they perceive to you astatine $3,000 bitcoin talking astir intelligence models for hyperbitcoinization. I think, you know, we came unneurotic to speech astir how, you know, the, this changing paradigm and wherefore everything is changing, not conscionable for Bitcoin, but however the satellite works. And that's thing that radical request to wage attraction to, I guess, you know, wherefore don't we footwear it disconnected with that.
[00:03:02] Bitcoin Tina: One of my favourite quotes, you've heard it a batch was successful the large short, I'll astir apt botch it up here. It's attributed to people twang. It's not what you don't cognize that gets you oregon hurts you. It's what, you know, for certain, that conscionable ain't. So, I deliberation this is truthful overmuch of an overriding taxable of the clip successful which we live, peculiarly arsenic it relates to markets, the economy, wherever Bitcoin fits in.
And, I deliberation radical person developed these models, which I judge are the process of failing. I deliberation radical property mode excessively overmuch recognition to the national reserve. I americium not a person of the national reserve. I deliberation they person gotten acold much incorrect successful their past than they person gotten. Right. I deliberation the national reserve is incompetent.
And I bash not judge that things, radical judge similar pivots volition needfully marque differences. I deliberation we are broadly speaking aboriginal successful the extremity game, I think, is this decennary possibly reaching into adjacent decade, Joe, a fewer minutes agone sent maine the ninth inning. I don't cognize if it's close to picture it arsenic the ninth inning oregon bottommost of the eighth.
I, I truly don't cognize successful shot analogies, possibly this is a, possibly this is an other innings game. It's hard to know, but we didn't conscionable get present yesterday. A batch of radical privation to framework our existent marketplace situation, economical concern arsenic though it started successful 2020, it didn't it's overmuch older than that. It's decades aged it's decades successful my sentiment of atrocious policies, which person gotten america here.
I deliberation determination are tons of radical who bash not hold with me, who deliberation that this strategy that we person is fixable. I don't judge that I don't judge it's fixable. I deliberation we walk the constituent of nary instrumentality and that's a truly captious quality betwixt the mode I spot the world. And immoderate of my contemporaries spot the satellite who deliberation that if we conscionable spell done a stagger magnitude of pain, this happening tin beryllium fixed.
Credit systems are by their nature, fundamentally inflationary. They person to beryllium recognition systems. Require continued recognition creation. Otherwise you autumn into perchance hard downturns. So by their cardinal nature. And by the way, I heard idiosyncratic accidental this the different time too, and it's worthy commenting on, origin I've thought this for myself for years, we don't truly cognize what makes CPI inflation.
We deliberation we do. We person nary clue. There is truthful small that we really cognize astir economics. We deliberation we cognize acold much than we do. And I remember, and I'm not gonna get this quote. Right. I looked for it precocious work oregon listened to the Lord's of concern by Ahamed Liquat oregon Liaquat Ahamed. I hide his sanction disconnected the apical of my head.
It commented astir those fiscal leaders successful the clip this was coming into and astir the clip of the large depression, 29, 30, 31 32. And. They didn't bash capable and they whitethorn not person understood capable astir what was incorrect oregon what they could do. They were constricted successful their actions. And I deliberation that the much I get to recognize astir things similar the Euro dollar market, I deliberation they're acold excessively galore radical who deliberation we cognize overmuch much than we bash astir the mode the america and planetary economical strategy enactment and their interactions with each other.
I perceive to radical similar Jeff Snyder, who talks astir the Euro dollar market. It's precise overmuch of an opaque market. We bash not person bully measures for this, and yet it's critically important to the mode the satellite works. The Euro dollar futures markets, an tremendous marketplace that's utilized for hedging globally. The Euro dollar market.
We unrecorded successful my opinion, successful the euro dollar standard, we bash not unrecorded successful a U.S. dollar standard. That's wrong. These markets are tremendous and it's unfortunate that we don't truly person bully measures for this. We're precise overmuch arsenic a nine economists flying by the spot of our pants and you'll ne'er get those admissions from those people.
They won't accidental that. It's true. I don't adjacent cognize if they cognize that it's true.
[00:07:38] Joe Carlasare: Tina, it's been a pleasure. Just I'll accidental from the outset, getting to cognize you and becoming a adjacent person and CK, likewise, I truly bask our conversations together. I hold with everything Tina has said truthful acold and the mode I would framework it is this.
I deliberation that we could beryllium precise overmuch entering a paradigm displacement entering does not mean time oregon adjacent adjacent year, but determination are the telltale signs that the times are changing each astir us. You spot emblematic relationships betwixt things similar the enslaved marketplace and the banal marketplace not acting successful ways you would usually expect.
And what I deliberation we wanted to get done successful this occurrence was that. When determination is simply a paradigm displacement erstwhile you person accelerated alteration successful society, successful fiscal markets, successful Bitcoin and each aspects of life, really, you should expect. Volatility to increase. You should expect risks that you could not usually foresee.
And I deliberation that dovetails into the punctuation Tina mentioned astir people Twain. You should expect that what whitethorn travel successful the marketplace successful the marketplace for Bitcoin and different fiscal assets implicit the adjacent respective years whitethorn beryllium precise antithetic from the dilatory March up into the close that we person seen, you know, for the past you know, 10 years.
So this is not meant to beryllium an overly bearish oregon a antagonistic doom and gloom benignant outlook. It's meant to beryllium truly 1 connection that emphasizes the occupation and it, emphasizes a connection of preparedness, flexibility, hazard management. This volition beryllium the cardinal for surviving the hardest trade.
So let's spell into the occupation existent quick, and past I'll springiness Tina a accidental to get into this. The problem, arsenic helium mentioned is the recognition system, the credit. System arsenic helium put, it needs changeless growth, it needs to propulsion guardant aboriginal consumption. And they person done that successful galore ways by lowering involvement rates astatine the abbreviated end.
And this has been global. It's not conscionable the national reserve, it's each cardinal banks. They've tried to propulsion guardant aboriginal consumption. The occupation becomes that benignant of a strategy wherever you are forced to propulsion depletion from the aboriginal is fundamentally unstable. We indispensable either proceed to grow, oregon we flip into these tightening liquidity traps, which tin person utmost results.
And arsenic you bash much and much of this involution by argumentation makers, some connected the fiscal broadside and connected the cardinal slope side, you make a much fragile system. The thought is that arsenic you strive to marque a strategy much stable, you indirectly origin it to beryllium much unstable. And that is what I deliberation we're seeing close here.
Tina, possibly you tin chime in,
[00:10:19] Bitcoin Tina: I've had this intelligence exemplary for years. Trying to retrieve 1 of the archetypal times I heard radical talking astir this was they were talking astir the fed successful this peculiar lawsuit that the fed drives into a ditch and guns. The motor goes shooting implicit the apical of the roadworthy and lands successful a ditch connected the different broadside of the road.
I deliberation this is however the satellite has worked, but it's historically much elongated. And we had the payment of dealing with peculiarly coming retired of the seventies, a reasonably precocious complaint environment, which enabled fed argumentation to enactment amended due to the fact that you were capable to turn the worth of plus markets and.
In immoderate senses, they had easier tools astatine their disposal to payment pulling guardant demand. Historically lodging and car markets were utilized to, they utilized to telephone it priming the pump for the existent economy. Those were precise large markets and by it's by raising rates astatine the extremity of cycles and lowering them coming to the adjacent cycle, they were capable to assistance grow accumulation of lodging and autos.
We went done years of this. The nineties, we had a batch of what was known arsenic currency out, refinancing, benefiting from summation successful lodging prices and declines successful rates. We did this preceding the planetary fiscal prices portion the lodging bubble blew to tremendous proportions successful the aboriginal 2 thousands and attempted much of this wealthiness effect, station planetary fiscal situation GFC wherever I deliberation a batch of this moved into the sovereign indebtedness bubble.
So these policies helped determination the system along, assistance soften the downside blow. And successful galore ways, possibly that's exhausted. In immoderate regard. And I've had the content for a fig of years that erstwhile it comes to dealing with the existent system and this pertains to the fed, but it's broader than conscionable the fed it's the fed, the treasury possibly Congress that determination are nary rules and immoderate it takes.
And I think, though we've seen immoderate of that already successful planetary fiscal situation during COVID, I expect to spot much of it. And truthful precocious erstwhile I saw this tweet by Matthew Pines, wherever helium described known aeronautic failure, thing called the Phugoid rhythm wherever level climbs and dives and climbs and dives the illustration that helium shows present is oscillations which look to turn an amplitude until determination is failure. He writes Phugoid cycle, dynamic instability leads to aforesaid excited, divergent oscillations, and exponential runway known nonaccomplishment mode and aeronautics and monetary policy. And truthful I deliberation successful wherever we are successful the bigger representation is this decennary is going to beryllium perchance adjacent much volatile than things we've experienced successful the past 40, 50 years.
[00:13:46] Joe Carlasare: I wholly hold Tina. And I deliberation that erstwhile you're looking astatine this absorption connected the national reserve and different argumentation makers, our fiscal authorities is successful immoderate ways an action. What is the existent problem? What is truly driving these accelerated accelerations up and accelerations down? Yes. Central slope policies and fiscal authorities play a role, but what we're dealing with are these immense macroeconomic trends.
And I deliberation that you person to look astatine what, what drives their effect to effort to support the strategy together, to effort to footwear the tin down the road. And it's truly driven by 3 things we're gonna concisely interaction on. Number 1 is debt. The magnitude of indebtedness to GDP is astatine historical levels, unprecedented successful quality history.
Second contented is what should beryllium a bully thing, but is really causing each sorts of externalities and unforeseen events, which is mediocre demographics. And what I mean by mediocre demographics is chiefly an aging satellite that is not capable to beryllium arsenic productive arsenic anterior eras and wide stagnant productivity. So let's interaction astir each of those truly rapidly successful the contented of indebtedness we already discussed.
And I deliberation it's good documented that astir of the Western satellite and adjacent immoderate emerging markets are conscionable perfectly saddled with unthinkable amounts of debt. They are saddled with that indebtedness due to the fact that that was the lone mode again, to propulsion guardant consumption. They were forced to, I think, arsenic you say, Tina inflate oregon dice fto a liquidation rhythm that could beryllium precise hard for radical to instrumentality clasp oregon to effort and spur guardant depletion by spending beyond their means. So the indebtedness is an overhang which hurts productivity and it people drives agelong extremity existent involvement rates down. Same happening with mediocre demographics. In the, and possibly we could amusement these charts successful the ocular version, but successful 1990, the median property colonisation of the United States was successful the debased thirties, 31, 32 and a fractional by the 2022 we're present astatine a median property of 38 and a half. So substantially higher. And arsenic that median property rises, our productivity declines, you person much and much of a colonisation who are not capable to thrust guardant economical growth, which is what a existent system needs, important productivity expanding successful growth. And the exertion that we're mounting is not starring to the benignant of accelerated detonation of productivity that we saw successful the concern revolution.
And this is existent extracurricular of the United States arsenic well. The median property successful China, for example, you know, successful the aboriginal 2 thousands was successful the debased thirties. Again, we're entering a play where. Over the adjacent respective decades, we're gonna participate a median property successful China that is northbound of 45. That is going to substantially alteration the productivity and maturation of the world, China, which was the served arsenic the manufacturing Mecca of the past respective decades is present gonna person an older population, which are not going to beryllium arsenic productive arsenic before.
So each these things people are going to measurement against productivity and they're gonna measurement against existent growth. And what that leads to america to is simply a indispensable conclusion. The indispensable decision is that you are going to person to propulsion forward, depletion done extremist argumentation measures. Things similar negative, existent rates, which determination are parts of the satellite that already person that oregon UBI oregon these different programs to thrust guardant consumption.
So erstwhile you participate that caller paradigm, things are not going to behave fiscal assets and nine successful wide is not gonna behave arsenic it had for the past respective years. And adhd into that, the information that you person governmental and geopolitical uncertainty crossed the world, some domestically and abroad, you've got a fragile governmental systems that person not been updated to accommodate and person the nimbleness required for this caller paradigm.
You person fundamentally a pulverization keg of volatility successful each aspects of our life. That is, is truly gonna beryllium problematic moving forward. It's gonna origin unforeseen events that we couldn't perchance cipher astatine this point. So, Tina, what astir that? Do you hold oregon disagree with?
[00:18:04] Bitcoin Tina: Well, what's absorbing astir antagonistic existent rates is, it's ever important for radical to retrieve that 1 man's indebtedness is different man's wealth. And truthful determination are galore battles going connected here. We radical speech astir things similar the 4th turning. There is this large conflict betwixt those who ain the indebtedness and those who wage the debt. And it's not pleasant for owners of indebtedness to person to woody with antagonistic existent rates to effort to trim the interaction of that debt.
And I deliberation that the recognition strategy that we unrecorded successful is fundamentally successful nonaccomplishment mode with this design. And I deliberation that what we volition spot is that policies that are successful spot volition precise overmuch yet payment Bitcoin and alteration Bitcoin to be. To turn dramatically larger to modulation the satellite into a satellite wherever Bitcoin becomes the ground for the fiscal system.
This unluckily is not a creaseless process and it's not a gentle process cuz tons of radical successful the satellite don't needfully hold with that constituent of view. They deliberation that possibly we tin proceed on the aforesaid mode that we've been going for the past 40, 50 years. I'm optimistic that Bitcoin tin lick those problems and that implicit clip arsenic we advancement on successful this decade, that galore others typically nary coiners who combat this conception volition dilatory and past possibly abruptly alteration their presumption oregon beryllium forced to alteration their presumption connected however this works.
[00:20:04] Joe Carlasare: So what I deliberation this leads america to is simply a indispensable decision that existent rates request to proceed to fall. And that the existent strategy requires much and much leverage astatine marginally little rates.
And that becomes much hard for each sovereign arsenic you scope the little bound arsenic you scope 0% rates. And I privation to conscionable see present a punctuation from macro Alf that I deliberation is it speaks to precisely what Tina is saying. And what I'm saying present is that quote, arsenic we footwear the tin down the road, we marque the strategy inherently much unstable and prone to the butterfly.
A tiny butterfly moving her wings, for example, existent yields moving a spot higher oregon a tiny recession is capable to make a tornado successful markets. And I deliberation that fits successful enactment perfectly with Tina's conception of the Phugoid rhythm of the conception that you're going to person to bash much and much to, to forestall adjacent the slightest disruption of the existent system.
Even a slightest disruption of a tiny recession tin person devastating results due to the fact that of the indebtedness and leverage successful the system, which is wherefore argumentation makers cognize implicitly, that there's lone truthful overmuch they tin push. There's lone truthful far. They tin spell without a systemic risk. Tina, what bash you ever accidental astir the fed?
What are your wide rules astir the fed?
[00:21:27] Bitcoin Tina: The 2 rules astir the fed is immoderate it takes and determination are nary rules.
[00:21:35] Joe Carlasare: So I deliberation astatine that this point, if you look astatine that conception to run successful the existent paradigm, knowing that cardinal bankers and fiscal authorities volition not fto radical endure the existent symptom due to the fact that it's just, it would beryllium systemic failure, the hazard of systemic failure.
I deliberation determination are lone truly a mates options enactment fig 1 is simply a de- leveraging event, which is simply not politically viable. The radical successful my peculiar presumption successful my basal lawsuit is that argumentation makers astatine a definite constituent are not gonna beryllium fixed capable leeway to marque radical instrumentality their medicine.
The, we've grown accustomed to the modular beingness we have, and we're not prepared for agelong word hardship, arsenic good arsenic I deliberation adjacent anterior generations. So if Austerity and de-leveraging are disconnected the table, the adjacent enactment truly is simply a war, which is simply a politically viable signifier of austerity. This has happened successful quality past and the McKinsey study that looked astatine countries that became highly indebted recovered that, you know, either forced austerity oregon warfare were the superior ways that you got retired of these types of highly precocious indebtedness to GDP ratios.
Those are the immense bulk of cases. You get retired either done a warfare oregon done a forced austerity. And bulk of those are wars. And past the last happening is you tin trust somewhat connected technological innovation to thrust a tremendous magnitude of productivity and turn your mode retired of it. I don't spot overmuch connected the skyline successful that front.
I cognize radical speech astir AI and different you know, important technological developments. I anticipation and commune that tin get america retired of this indebtedness problem. But realistically, the astir apt scenario, I think. Additional attempts to footwear the tin down the road. Things similar Bailins, UBI, Debt Jubilee, monetizations of the debt.
These sorts of tools person not yet adjacent been afloat tapped by fiscal and monetary authorities. And I expect them to come. And I cognize Tina, I deliberation I deliberation you bash arsenic well. Am I close there?
[00:23:29] Bitcoin Tina: I do. I deliberation we're going to spot much and much policies travel into play that conscionable radical person not truly thought successful presumption of.
And I deliberation that should be, you know, we should person that arsenic portion of our expectation. And I deliberation that Bitcoin tin uniquely respond to that. And I deliberation assistance america yet modulation to a to a overmuch amended economical situation, but this is going to beryllium a precise unsmooth road. And it's important to truly expect that. And it's going to instrumentality immoderate clip for nary corners to alteration their sentiment connected immoderate of these things. And it provides Bitcoins, a immense opportunity.
[00:24:18] Joe Carlasare: I agree. And the 1 happening I'll yet adjacent connected this, if you expect much involution from fiscal and monetary authorities, if you expect that things similar nominal yields are gonna spell negative.
One of the things that I deliberation is thing that is simply a harmless presumption is that bearer assets volition go much attractive. If you are dealing with important amounts of wealthiness stored successful a bank, which are taxable to confiscation, taxable to immoderate benignant of effort by argumentation makers to power your entree to that superior to that wealth. Storing currency successful vault becomes beauteous attractive. Even with the risks associated with having important amounts of cash. The aforesaid is existent of Bitcoin. If you expect much involution and much superior controls and much efforts by argumentation makers to power the travel of wealth due to the fact that of the overarching indebtedness problem, you should expect thing similar Bitcoin to yet commencement to marque consciousness to the nary coiners.
You should expect the information that if I tin person this plus that cannot beryllium confiscated, that cannot beryllium controlled, that tin beryllium held successful important size, connected my own, without different radical having entree to it. That is truly charismatic versus each of the alternatives retired there. Anything other that is held by a custodian?
Tina, your presumption connected this, I deliberation is that is astir apt 1 of the astir favorable things astir Bitcoin. I cognize you person this large enactment and I privation you to stock it with america about, I deliberation it's volition Rogers and his commentary astir instrumentality connected your money. Can you springiness america that quote?
[00:25:52] Bitcoin Tina: It's not the instrumentality connected your money, you to beryllium acrophobic about, but the instrumentality of your money. And I deliberation that you know, we often speech astir the assorted qualities of Bitcoin finite accumulation a finite magnitude of Bitcoin, but successful galore ways, astir apt the azygous astir important facet of spot of Bitcoin is its sovereign censorship resistance.
It's quality for you to beryllium capable to clasp your wealthiness extracurricular of the fiscal system. This is truthful poorly understood by radical possibly adjacent poorly understood by radical who ain Bitcoin, however almighty this is, however meaningful this is. If you are a affluent person, I heard idiosyncratic commenting successful 1 of the spaces I was listening to the different day.
He said, well, wherefore would a affluent idiosyncratic request Bitcoin aft all? You know, I tin recognize this idiosyncratic said, I tin recognize wherefore idiosyncratic mightiness request it you know, successful a merging market, processing country. This person's not unfastened to the conception that responses to the existing fiscal concern mightiness beryllium assorted forms of superior controls.
They're not unfastened to the conception of however the satellite mightiness alteration successful ways that they don't expect, due to the fact that they are misunderstanding that Mark Twain statement, that it's not the things that you don't cognize that gets you, but the things you think, you know, for definite that conscionable ain't so. This idiosyncratic said this idiosyncratic with 25 million, they would person nary request for Bitcoin, but,
I deliberation we're gonna spot things that are precise hard for a batch of radical to ideate , successful this decennary into the adjacent decade, possibly. Yes this is incredibly almighty spot of Bitcoin, which is precise poorly understood by people. And I deliberation the world, arsenic we spell done these dynamics, we're gonna precise overmuch larn the hard mode things that Bitcoiners already understand, and this tin assistance you to get to those going from gradually into abruptly periods.
As the satellite wakes up to the need. Banks, successful my opinion, were created successful galore ways to, to lick a occupation with money.
Businesses are by their nature. Custodial you make securities. They're centralized by their precise nature. Most businesses are centralized by their precise quality money. Doesn't person to be. We've learned peculiarly since Bitcoin and golden is not truly usable, functionally. You can't easy nonstop it crossed the satellite without utilizing immoderate mentation of a bank.
So this spot of being capable to clasp a important information of your wealthiness extracurricular of the power of trusted 3rd parties is enormously important. And this idiosyncratic who was making these comments successful the abstraction has nary knowing of this. And I deliberation galore of these people, and determination are galore of those radical person an atrocious batch of wealthiness going to find that the things that they deliberation they know, conscionable ain't so, and that volition bring astir a precise accelerated alteration successful the mode people, adjacent successful places similar the west, spot Bitcoin.
[00:29:23] Joe Carlasare: So we've mapped retired the occupation here, right? We've explained however that demographic stagnant productivity are gonna necessitate needfully much and much draconian policies from fiscal and monetary authorities.
But, what is the inferior for idiosyncratic to listening to this podcast? And I deliberation the mode we've divided this up, we wanna speech to 2 antithetic audiences. If you're a nary coiner, we're gonna commencement with you. If you, who are idiosyncratic who has nary vulnerability to Bitcoin, and you spot this plus that, you know, respective months agone was northbound of 60,000, and present it's down to 20,000 successful presumption of it's USSD value.
You whitethorn travel up maine and say, Joe, wherefore the heck would I bargain thing similar that? Why would I enactment my hard earned wealth successful an plus similar that? Given what you're talking about, which is an progressively volatile satellite with risks that are not casual to anticipate. And I deliberation the reply to that starts with knowing the quality betwixt volatility and risk. Obviously anyone, adjacent those that don't clasp Bitcoin are acquainted with it's price, volatility, that it tin fluctuate wildly successful the abbreviated tally and that all, though it is designed to beryllium the hardest wealth ever created, you person to travel into this tiny marketplace with a designation that the terms is gonna beryllium highly volatile.
And successful the adjacent 10 years, 20 years, you're gonna participate into a precocious volatility however volatility regime, wherever you could spot adjacent much chaotic volatility than thing we've been accustomed to. People stock that illustration astir the from Y Mar Germany astir the golden people versus the insubstantial mark. And you tin look astatine the extremity of that and spot the accelerated appreciation.
But successful the mediate there, there's a ton of volatility up and down successful that pricing mechanism. But what I would archer to a nary country is absorption little connected the terms volatility successful the abbreviated tally and absorption much connected the risks that volition travel with this strategy and the efforts of argumentation makers to effort to forestall it from breaking down. The risk
are antithetic from volatility successful the consciousness that we ever quantify oregon expect risks, things similar we talked astir earlier, similar Bailin and antagonistic involvement rates, antagonistic nominal, involvement rates, those types of things I deliberation radical underestimate arsenic Tina said, and if they are a existent credible argumentation that could beryllium enactment successful spot by cardinal authorities.
And if you recognize that, and you're a nary country and you admit that I'm gonna effort to mitigate against immoderate of those risks with the knowing that the terms is gonna beryllium precise volatile successful the abbreviated run, that I deliberation is simply a bully mode to framework it for folks that person important amounts of wealth, cipher needs to enactment a 100 percent of their nett worthy into Bitcoin.
I cognize determination are radical that bash that and I don't person immoderate judgement connected them, but if you're a precise affluent idiosyncratic and you person zero vulnerability to this asset, fixed the geopolitical and economical risks connected the horizon. So, truthful I deliberation that's a mistake and Tina I'd beryllium funny successful your thoughts.
[00:32:24] Bitcoin Tina: The process of hyper colonization is not an casual one.
Bitcoin has to combat its mode to becoming the 1 and lone wealth accepted by everyone everywhere. It's thing I similar to tweet and it's. The circumstances of the world, which are helping to bring astir Bitcoin. And I deliberation this is precise important. The satellite volition larn wherefore we request Bitcoin from the actions that are existing successful the bequest system.
And I deliberation that's going to beryllium a hard and a achy process for galore people. It's truthful hard to admit flaws successful the existing system. It, it's hard to woody with these things cuz radical are acquainted with what they're acquainted with and they person a precise hard clip imagining the world, which is antithetic from the 1 they know, but we've moved acold on successful this process of creating mode excessively overmuch debt, atrocious economical policies.
And I hap to judge and possibly this is incorrect connected my part, but I hap to judge that the satellite is teaching those who don't yet recognize and volition proceed to bash truthful wherefore we request Bitcoin arsenic overmuch arsenic we do. I'm not definite if I'm addressing adequately what Joe's talking about.
[00:33:47] Joe Carlasare: So Tina, again, like, I deliberation we request to hone successful if you're, if you are talking to idiosyncratic that's a nary coiner close now.
And they say, I conscionable saw my asset, that I bought ,a small tiny vulnerability to Bitcoin driblet by 70, 80%. Why would you deliberation that this is the plus to get maine done to the different broadside of the Phugoid rhythm of the utmost volatility we'll spot successful fiscal markets and adjacent politically implicit the adjacent decade, why, what would beryllium your effect to that?
[00:34:18] Bitcoin Tina: It's astir a spot of unpleasantness that radical person to woody with. Lennon said determination are decades erstwhile thing happens they're weeks erstwhile decades happen. We arsenic Bitcoiners whitethorn beryllium speechmaking this wrong. Maybe there's immoderate magic that tin happen, instrumentality place, to alteration the satellite to woody with these assorted problems.
Although from commentary that we perceive from galore radical successful the bequest system, I deliberation that galore of 'em are good alert of these problems and are trying to fig retired ways of dealing with it. I deliberation that those ways of dealing with these issues that we've discussed of their demographic issues, indebtedness problems are going to beryllium perchance rather unpleasant. And I deliberation it's precise hard for radical to admit however those issues volition impact them. And immoderate radical simply won't judge it close away. They won't spot it. They won't effort to recognize it. And simply terms going up volition beryllium what attracts radical into
Bitcoin sotoshi said, and I'm gonna butcher this. I look to butcher quotes. If you don't understand, I don't person the clip to explicate it to you. Not everybody volition recognize wherefore they request Bitcoin astatine the aforesaid clip arsenic others recognize wherefore they request Bitcoin. I whitethorn not beryllium capable to explicate wherefore you request Bitcoin adequately to your understanding.
And it's not my problem. It's your problem. And you whitethorn not similar that answer. But that's however it is. That's the mode the satellite works.
It's not ever casual for radical to understand. That's wherefore I, that I deliberation the satellite is successful the process of teaching america wherefore Bitcoin is necessary, wherefore having money, which you power is truthful important. And you'll perceive galore radical say, well, it has to beryllium custodial.
I don't needfully judge that to beryllium so, radical often marque tons of excuses to wherefore things person to beryllium a definite way. And I think, learning tin beryllium a hard process. I mean, it's conscionable that simple.
[00:36:44] Joe Carlasare: You're saying it just, it has to beryllium custodial. Tina, conscionable truthful we're wide what you mean erstwhile you accidental it has to beryllium custodial?
[00:36:50] Bitcoin Tina: No. I'm saying erstwhile radical accidental it has to beryllium custodial, I'm saying that I deliberation radical volition larn that whitethorn travel astatine a precise precocious cost.
[00:36:57] Joe Carlasare: I wanna conscionable marque definite you we're speaking the aforesaid language. When you accidental the radical are saying it needs to beryllium custodial. They're arguing that you can't instrumentality aforesaid custody of your funds.
That's the statement from astir fiscal radical successful concern close now, correct?
[00:37:10] Bitcoin Tina: Correct. And I deliberation that's wrong. I deliberation that's fundamentally flawed. I deliberation that it is rather imaginable for galore radical to larn however to aforesaid custody, their Bitcoin. And I deliberation that this process volition go easier successful galore ways implicit time.
And determination volition beryllium tools that get developed. That volition marque this process easier. So I'm not peculiarly acrophobic astir it, but the constituent is I deliberation the satellite is successful the process of teaching america wherefore this is truthful important. And immoderate radical figured it retired earlier than others. And that's just, it's conscionable however the satellite is.
Not everybody understands the aforesaid accusation astatine the aforesaid time.
[00:37:50] CK: So Tina, I wanna leap successful present and you know, immoderate of the earliest radical into Bitcoin are immoderate of the surest connected however things are gonna play retired and different assemblage that we wanna talk to are the Bitcoiners. I cognize a batch of Bitcoiners who, you know, they person a precise circumstantial strategy and they're truly focused connected accumulating arsenic galore sats arsenic possible.
And I don't cognize if they are ready, are prepared for. The magnitude of volatility successful the existent satellite that each of america and everything we ain is gonna experience. So I consciousness similar there's a batch that we tin accidental to them astir this that is gonna beryllium pertinent arsenic well.
[00:38:31] Joe Carlasare: If you look astatine Bitcoin and however it's moved implicit the past 10 years, I deliberation we tin beryllium confused to deliberation that cycles are a thing.
The having rhythm ever is gonna make a definite effect that Bitcoin's terms tin ne'er autumn beneath the prior, each clip high, that determination is simply a steady, upward ascent to the close connected this asset. And portion that whitethorn beryllium true, and nary of america person a crystal shot arsenic to the path, things volition instrumentality successful the future.
I ever similar to astatine slightest support my caput unfastened that mightiness not ever beryllium the lawsuit that hyperbitcoinization, that tin decelerate based connected what's going connected successful the macroeconomic environment. And I deliberation we telephone this the ineffable cows of the Bitcoin community.
When we archetypal started the thought of this podcast, Bitcoin had not yet breached that prior. I deliberation it's 19,600, 700, immoderate it is connected the exchange, each clip precocious from the 2017 bull market. And determination were galore of america who said. At the clip don't beryllium truthful convinced that can't happen, that we can't with the close macro situation oregon the mediocre macro situation alternatively autumn beneath that anterior high.
There are structural issues successful our marketplace. Things similar the liquidity connected the exchanges, things similar the banking system, which tin origin havoc successful the Bitcoin terms successful the abbreviated run. And this is not to accidental that, you know, Bitcoin won't admit and won't bash good implicit the adjacent 10 years. Merely that the way it whitethorn instrumentality whitethorn not beryllium arsenic predictable and orderly arsenic immoderate Bitcoiners deliberation it is that you could spot accelerated depreciation of the terms of Bitcoin value against dollars oregon accelerated acceleration.
It could hap successful the mediate of punctuation unquote having cycle. Or it could hap wholly other wholly divorced from immoderate relation vessel with the having rhythm owed to macroeconomic factors. I'll springiness you 1 circumstantial example. We talked astir earlier, my idiosyncratic belief, that UBI is connected the table.
Now I volition archer you that if we get UBI successful important parts of the developed satellite successful important parts of GA countries, I deliberation Bitcoin's terms is going to respond incredibly well. I similar to deliberation of it that I person a intelligence exemplary that assumes Bitcoin's terms tin bash highly chaotic things, arguably things that are much unpredictable and much utmost than thing we've seen successful Bitcoin's history, due to the fact that it matches the volatile situation we're moving into.
I told Tina past twelvemonth that I person successful my intelligence model. The conception that Bitcoin wrong a 12 period trading play tin scope from $5,000 to $500,000. And erstwhile radical perceive that, they deliberation that's a terms prediction, it's not a terms prediction. I'm not saying Bitcoin's going to $5,000. So delight don't correspond it arsenic that.
What I'm saying is that the macro landscape, which is evolving rapidly tin thrust the terms down and up successful unfathomable ways. As we determination into this caller paradigm, arsenic we determination on the Phugoid rhythm that Tina's been talking about. So Tina, I beryllium funny successful your presumption of that.
[00:41:42] Bitcoin Tina: Very simply enactment that we person to beryllium arsenic cautious of people Twain's informing arsenic anybody other that we cannot presume that what we deliberation we know.
If so, and I deliberation determination are galore Bitcoiners who person And possibly maine included who person notions of what we deliberation we cognize astir Bitcoin and we request to beryllium prepared for a satellite that whitethorn beryllium adjacent much volatile than what we think. And that's for maine astir apt my superior point. And possibly I americium conscionable arsenic susceptible to these mistakes arsenic others mightiness be.
[00:42:27] Joe Carlasare: Yeah. So, truthful that's truly what we wanted speech astir with respect to the Bitcoin community, these ideas astir the havening, the thought astir Bitcoin being coupled the fiscal assets successful general, the thought that Bitcoin indispensable commercialized successful a definite mode that successful a bull market, alt coins are gonna ever emergence and alongside Bitcoin and they're gonna outperform Bitcoin during the bull market. These are notions that volition beryllium tested. And it is my presumption that it is much apt than not that they volition fail. It is not needfully a prediction oregon a warrant of immoderate of this. But I deliberation that what we've already seen. In the past quote, unquote rhythm of 20, 20 and 2021, arsenic you've seen Bitcoin commercialized successful ways, it has not typically traded.
You've seen it respond successful ways to the bequest marketplace that it is not typically reacted. That is telling you thing that is simply a nonstop awesome that Bitcoin is evolving. It's maturing into a antithetic plus than it's been since its inception. And I expect Bitcoin to proceed to mature. Tina, you ever say, you know, I deliberation you comparison it to an adolescent, right?
You accidental successful Bitcoin's property it's hardly reaching its barroom mitzvah. Is that what you say?
[00:43:36] Bitcoin Tina: Well that's due to the fact that it wasn't yet 13. You know, you tin person immoderate insights arsenic to what an big is like, but not necessarily, no, due to the fact that there's inactive galore things that idiosyncratic has yet to learn.
And galore things astir them that volition alteration successful their they're teen years. And truthful Bitcoin is precise overmuch similar that. And conscionable beryllium prepared for learning and knowing the quality of what this happening is and that it mightiness not fulfill your adjacent word expectations.
[00:44:08] Joe Carlasare: Yes, I agree. And I deliberation that arsenic overmuch arsenic we wanna absorption connected Bitcoin and Bitcoin trades oregon what Bitcoin does oregon however it functions successful galore ways. As I spot it, this is astir america arsenic people, arsenic marketplace participants, arsenic radical that are trying you know, arsenic accepted concern bequest concern is trying to recognize this asset, which I deliberation you'll hold with me
bitcoin is inactive precise overmuch poorly understood. So I bring that up due to the fact that it's not needfully astir Bitcoin. It's astir the context, the larger macro situation that it's surviving in. And this selloff successful Bitcoin that we've seen, which has been an highly achy protracted agelong selloff. You cannot accidental that this selloff successful galore ways is not a product.
Let maine rephrase it. So it's not a treble negative. You person to recognize that this is simply a merchandise of the macroeconomic situation we're successful with utmost amounts of debt, utmost amounts of leverage in, successful the bequest system. Is it not Tina?
[00:45:07] Bitcoin Tina: I judge that's correct. And truthful determination volition beryllium much criticisms that we'll perceive from nary coiners
they volition go much vigorous successful their antagonistic commentary and critiques. Because possibly we've told ourselves immoderate things that aren't truly needfully true. And successful the process of telling ourselves these things, we're besides telling the world. And truthful it becomes casual critiques for radical to marque due to the fact that we ourselves are successful the process of learning astir Bitcoin and arsenic it exists successful the fixed macro discourse of economies and markets.
So we request to beryllium acutely alert that. There are a batch of moving parts to what's changing here. And I'm not definite that galore radical successful the satellite recognize those moving parts and they surely don't recognize Bitcoin. And truthful we request successful immoderate ways to alloy ourselves to this, knowing , that we are feeling our mode done this process.
So you request to amended recognize the context, the macro discourse that is teaching the world, wherefore it needs Bitcoin, but astatine the aforesaid time, galore radical don't wanna larn and we request to recognize mistakes that we arsenic Bitcoiners mightiness person made successful trying to picture it, due to the fact that we are inactive successful the process of learning astir Bitcoin ourselves and not autumn prey to critiques, which are not good thought retired oregon good founded. And truthful it's the crushed I called it the hardest commercialized is due to the fact that it's rather difficult.
You know, it's 1 happening to speech astir it. It's different happening to unrecorded done it and woody with the consequences of these, you know, precise volatile movements. And truthful I deliberation hint Mayer was close galore years ago, talking astir the request to not conscionable beryllium the hodler of past resort, but the purchaser of past resort.
I deliberation determination are immense opportunities for radical to ain and extremity up owning overmuch much Bitcoin than they mightiness person adjacent thought possible. And truthful we person to recognize these processes happening successful the greater discourse successful the macro environment, and besides recognize Bitcoin amended ourselves and beryllium prepared for its volatility to marque it done this could beryllium a precise hard process. I anticipation that makes sense, Joe. I'm not definite if it does.
[00:48:07] Joe Carlasare: I deliberation it makes a batch of consciousness and I deliberation that's the, truly the bosom of what we're trying to get done with this podcast. Because I think. As the aged proverb goes, creaseless seas bash not marque skillful sailors.
And successful galore ways, the past 10 years of Bitcoin's adoption to person been chiefly by the bequest markets, which person been unchangeable up into the close alongside Bitcoin, they person made a batch of radical deliberation they're skillful sailors. They've made a batch of radical deliberation that they tin just, you know, bargain successful Bitcoin, leverage up Bitcoin, instrumentality retired loans to bargain Bitcoin.
And it's ever gonna spell up into the right. And it's ever gonna beryllium a creaseless way forward. They whitethorn beryllium right. I'm not saying I person a crystal shot and tin archer them that they're wrong. My interest is that mightiness not beryllium the lawsuit that you mightiness beryllium successful for much Rocky seas. And those that get to the different broadside volition beryllium those that are prepared.
Those that measure risk. In proportionality of what their fiscal circumstances are. Tina and I speech astir this often that he's successful a wholly antithetic vessel financially than wherever I'm at. I inactive enactment a occupation inactive practicing and bringing successful income. So for me, I'm blessed erstwhile the Bitcoin terms goes down. I conjecture that's astir apt overstating happy.
I conjecture I'm not successful despair erstwhile Bitcoin terms goes down incredibly due to the fact that I volition beryllium buying, I volition beryllium buying each the mode down and I volition beryllium stacking sat, different folks that are possibly excessively overmuch implicit their skis. You tin spot it, you tin consciousness it connected Bitcoin, Twitter, and connected spaces. And successful clubhouse erstwhile Bitcoin's terms declines, there's this you know, existent downtrodden depressed mood.
My, my presumption of this is you request to beryllium prepared to beryllium resolute and And person a mindset that you volition beryllium the purchaser of past resort. Come what whitethorn with the terms successful the abbreviated term, due to the fact that it tin beryllium precise rough. It whitethorn not beryllium creaseless sailing from present connected out. And I deliberation Tina, you hold with that?
Correct?
[00:49:53] Bitcoin Tina: I hold completely. And and it's just, we, arsenic Bitcoiners volition beryllium amended served in, successful knowing that. And I think, you know, we bash recognize that determination that Bitcoin is highly volatile, but someway I deliberation the discourse mightiness beryllium antithetic due to the fact that I don't deliberation Bitcoin has really been astir done a perchance precise superior economical downturn.
[00:50:23] CK: Gentlemen, this is thing that I've conscionable been truthful passionate about, which is that Bitcoiners request to absorption connected getting connected the different extremity of this journey. Your stats volition beryllium astir invaluable erstwhile Bitcoin is the 1 and lone wealth arsenic likes to say. But until then, you know, there's a batch that you person to bash to presumption yourself.
And you person to beryllium honorable with wherever you are and what you're consenting to do. So, hard choices volition person to beryllium made to beryllium that purchaser of blast edifice and beryllium good positioned to get the maximum magnitude of stats crossed the decorativeness line. So we don't person to get into item there. I deliberation that this has been a precise informative and precise sobering rip for the listeners retired determination the Bitcoin Tina connected Bitcoin fans. So, I promote everyone to look yourself successful the mirror, beryllium arsenic honorable arsenic imaginable with yourself and, you know, truly effort to deliberation done what Bitcoin Tina and Joe are saying here. I deliberation that successful general, everyone should perceive to the erstwhile 5 episodes arsenic galore times arsenic possible.
So, marque definite to bash that and perceive to Bitcoin Tina connected Bitcoin successful bid to hole yourself for the hardest commercialized this happening that we've been trying to spell retired to everyone for a mates years now. So with that, you know, I deliberation we tin adjacent it out. Joe what would beryllium your past word?
And past Tina tin person the last connected the podcast .
[00:51:52] Joe Carlasare: CK and acknowledgment Tina for inviting maine connected this site. I genuinely admit it. The metaphor I usage for this is. Imagine you're astatine the southbound rim of the expansive canyon you're looking crossed and you cognize that determination is different side. The different broadside tin beryllium that Bitcoin standard, that Bitcoinization that we speech about.
But if you're focused lone connected the different side, you're missing the chasm that is close successful beforehand of you, the way that tin beryllium rather treacherous for you to get crossed until you get to that different side. And my connection for anybody listening to this is see your condition financially, see your job, your livelihood, your obligations, and recognize that determination whitethorn beryllium immoderate bumps on this ride, arsenic you get to the different side.
What I similar to deliberation of with respect to my Bitcoin allocation is that erstwhile I spell to furniture astatine nighttime and enactment my caput against the pillow, I'm gonna beryllium good if I aftermath up the adjacent greeting and I spot that $5,000 Bitcoin oregon lower. It's not gonna origin maine to beryllium financially insecure. It's not gonna jeopardize my family's livelihood.
I'm gonna beryllium precise upset and disappointed of course, arsenic anybody who tells you different is lying, but I'm gonna beryllium fine. I'm gonna beryllium nimble wherever I'm gonna beryllium buying down determination and I'm gonna proceed to bargain each the mode backmost up due to the fact that I bash judge Bitcoin is the solution, Bitcoin Tina, there, determination is nary alternative.
That's however I presumption Bitcoin. The aforesaid happening is to beryllium said for the radically other effect that I americium prepared mentally. If I aftermath up time and a fewer pieces connected the macroeconomic chess committee person moved. Now Bitcoin's sitting astatine $500,000 successful a accelerated abbreviated magnitude of time. I'm not gonna beryllium panicked knowing that I missed retired connected the top commercialized of my beingness due to the fact that I volition person my Bitcoin successful acold retention and I volition beryllium prepared for that.
So that's the connection I think, is that is to run and marque each your decisions, bid your life's choices. With the knowing that you bash not cognize the way this whitethorn take, and each you tin bash is absorption connected what you tin control. You can't power the terms of Bitcoin, but you tin power the fiscal decisions you make.
So with that I convey you truthful much, Bitcoin, Tina and CK for having maine on.
[00:54:08] Bitcoin Tina: That's wherefore I similar Joe truthful overmuch due to the fact that I usage the aforesaid illustration of the expansive canyon, myself, that you know, we absorption connected the different side, but the way tin beryllium treacherous successful presumption of getting there. And I deliberation Joe said it well, I don't truly deliberation there's overmuch to adhd to that.
I hold with what Joe said. And I deliberation that we. We privation to alloy ourselves and beryllium prepared for perchance treacherous way and beryllium capable to physique successful immoderate daze absorbers we request psychologically, financially to marque it done a perchance rugged path. And and that's precise important and don't underestimate the value of the intelligence arsenic good arsenic the financial, some are precise important.
And immoderate cases, the intelligence is much important. You tin diminish your intelligence relationship precise rapidly and replacing that sometimes precise difficult. In my opinion, it's important to not commercialized trading is incredibly hard and this play whitethorn beryllium adjacent much truthful I would precise overmuch debar indebtedness due to the fact that indebtedness is not your person successful a precise volatile environments.
And if you are a trader, which I powerfully suggest you don't bash chopped your size, commercialized overmuch smaller commercialized successful sizes that are inconsequential, you'll bash better. I powerfully counsel you not trade, but this is precise important. Preparing yourself for what could beryllium a unsmooth road, 10 years from now, 20 years from now.
If radical look connected the backmost connected this, if they retrieve maine astatine all, I would similar to beryllium remembered arsenic idiosyncratic who didn't blow, fume up people's asses. Was not rah rah Bitcoin, but tried to woody with the realities and the difficulties of the process that we person to spell through. And to effort to beryllium honest, substance of information .I'm precise optimistic, but determination are times that we person unsmooth patches to spell done and I would anticipation that would beryllium my bequest successful Bitcoin to assistance radical recognize Bitcoin, but besides to marque it done hard times, to marque it through, to get to the different broadside and to not simply beryllium portion of the chorus of rah rah.
And that's it. Thank you.
[00:56:43] CK: And that is it. Y'all, there's a full podcast astir not trading and I deliberation it's truly about. Positioning yourself to grip volatility. So convey you, Tina. Thank you, Joe. This was a fantastic summation to the bid and I'm excited to perceive what the Bitcoiners person to say. So I'm definite there's gonna beryllium a batch of absorption to this, but with that Bitcoiners, convey you for listening and fto america cognize what you think.
Peace.
English (US) 