Futures desks made 9 out of 10 Bitcoin trades in May while spot activity slowed down

Bitcoin crossed the six-figure enactment for the archetypal clip this twelvemonth successful March and spent April drifting adjacent the precocious $90,000 area. May opened astatine $96,505 and connected May 22 printed a caller grounds astatine $111,700, a 15.7 % beforehand successful 3 weeks.

Since then, the terms has been hovering supra $107,000, portion turnover connected derivatives acold outpaced spot, showing wherever risk-taking was concentrated.

Across April, the marketplace recorded an mean of 32,403 BTC successful regular spot measurement and 439,043 BTC connected futures venues, placing the spot-to-derivative ratio astatine 0.0739. During May, those numbers slid to 23,766 BTC and 350,734 BTC, respectively. That pushed the ratio down to 0.0702 and lifted the derivative stock of full enactment to 93.7 %, the highest monthly people this year.

Graph showing Bitcoin’s spot-to-derivatives trading measurement ratio from Jan. 1 to May 26, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

Summed crossed the 26 observed trading days, May delivered 618,000 BTC of spot turnover versus 9.12 cardinal BTC connected futures books. In dollar terms, utilizing the regular adjacent equates to astir $67 cardinal successful currency trades and much than $990 cardinal successful futures exposure. This is the lowest the ratio has been since 2023 and shows however acold the marketplace has migrated toward contract-based enactment since ETFs arrived successful aboriginal 2024.

This month’s archetypal trading time saw 9,435 BTC commercialized connected spot books against 377,196 BTC connected futures, a ratio of 0.0746. On May 22, spot ticks reached 31,599 BTC portion derivatives surged to 467,328 BTC; the ratio compressed to 0.0677. By May 26, with terms cooling to $109,460, spot measurement fell to 14,967 BTC, but futures inactive printed 289,617 BTC, leaving the ratio astatine 0.0597, the lowest level of the month.

Graph showing Bitcoin’s spot and derivative trading measurement from May 1 to May 26, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

Open involvement followed volume. Futures worth locked successful contracts climbed from $65.81 cardinal connected May 18 to $80.91 cardinal connected May 22. The leap lined up with the grounds terms and pushed the OI-to-market-cap ratio beyond 0.05 for the archetypal time, flagging a gearing origin greater than 1:20 connected galore venues.

The signifier is clear: each limb higher successful terms came with a proportionally larger summation successful futures turnover, whereas spot request faded erstwhile the highest was printed. This illustration points to terms find driven by funding-backed positioning alternatively than outright buying connected currency exchanges. With much than 9 retired of each 10 traded coins present cycling done contracts, tiny backing adjustments tin amplify terms swings quickly.

Funding rates already bespeak the heavier gearing. Data from May 21 to May 23 amusement the open-interest-weighted complaint climbing from 0.0061 % to 0.0181 % earlier sliding backmost to 0.0064 %. That bump lined up with the grounds high, showing however small spot travel was required erstwhile perpetual costs turned positive. If rates crook negative, the aforesaid mechanics tin little the terms done wide presumption trimming.

Spot exchange-traded funds adhd different variable. Net inflows betwixt May 15 and May 22 totaled $2.1 billion, yet the terms rally outpaced that currency by a wide borderline erstwhile measured against derivatives volume. With spot desks quiet, immoderate ample ETF redemption could unit liquidity seekers into futures markets and accentuate moves.

Institutional traders intelligibly favour derivatives implicit spot. During the week of the record, the US 10-year output eased 8 ground points and the dollar scale slipped 0.6 %. Basis trades that abbreviated the beforehand period and bargain spot to gain backing narrowed slightly, accordant with the output move, but ne'er widened capable to entice a wholesale pivot backmost to currency markets.

Until observable currency buying strengthens, the marketplace sits connected a operation of geared positions that tin magnify gains and drawdowns. A sustained rebound successful spot stock would make a firmer instauration for Bitcoin’s price, portion different crisp correction could permission Bitcoin’s terms exposed to forced unwinds from the derivatives market.

The station Futures desks made 9 retired of 10 Bitcoin trades successful May portion spot enactment slowed down appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.