Fundstrat Predicts Ethereum Drop To $1,800 In H1 2026

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A screenshot attributed to Fundstrat Research is stirring statement implicit whether Tom Lee’s steadfast is projecting a crisp first-half 2026 correction successful crypto markets—despite Lee’s caller nationalist bullishness connected Ethereum.

Wu Blockchain shared the representation via X, describing it arsenic an interior lawsuit enactment titled “2026 Crypto Outlook: Near-Term Headwinds, Second-Half Upside,” timestamped Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025 astatine 7:34 p.m. ET.

Fundstrat’s Bearish Call Vs. Tom Lee’s Bull Case

The papers is credited to Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s caput of integer plus strategy, and includes a base-case script calling for a “meaningful drawdown successful 1H 2026,” with people ranges of bitcoin astatine $60,000–$65,000, ether astatine $1,800–$2,000, and solana astatine $50–$75. The enactment adds that those levels would correspond “attractive opportunities into year-end,” and that if the presumption is wrong, the penchant is inactive to “play defense” until spot is confirmed.

The ETH scope is what acceptable the marketplace chatter off. Ether is trading astir the $3,000 area, making $1,800 a worldly downside script if taken astatine look value.

The controversy, specified arsenic it is, comes from the proximity to Lee’s ain messaging. At Binance Blockchain Week, Lee said ethereum astatine astir $3,000 looked “severely undervalued,” a stance that reads precise otherwise than a probe model explicitly mapping a imaginable determination to the high-$1,000s. Over the past fewer weeks, Lee adjacent publically shared his predictions that ETH could scope $20,000 adjacent twelvemonth and $62,000 implicit the adjacent respective years.

Farrell responded straight connected X connected Dec. 20, arguing the framing of “internal conflict” misunderstands however Fundstrat operates. The firm, helium said, houses respective analysts with autarkic processes, each designed for antithetic lawsuit objectives and clip horizons.

Lee’s work, Farrell wrote, is aimed astatine ample institutions that mightiness allocate 1%–5% to BTC and ETH and is structured astir longer-term macro and “secular” trends. Farrell’s research, by contrast, is positioned for investors with heavier crypto exposure—he referenced portfolios with ~20%+ allocations—where progressive hazard absorption and rebalancing substance much than maintaining a azygous long-duration thesis done volatility.

That favoritism is cardinal to interpreting the leaked-style targets. Farrell’s nationalist mentation wasn’t “we are bearish,” but alternatively “we are cautious successful the adjacent term.” He said markets look priced for “near-perfection” portion risks stay elevated—citing authorities shutdown dynamics, commercialized volatility, uncertainty astir AI capex, and a Federal Reserve seat transition, alongside choky high-yield spreads and debased cross-asset volatility.

He besides highlighted mixed travel conditions. In Farrell’s telling, semipermanent ETF request could amended arsenic wirehouses onboard, but near-term pressures persist from “OG selling,” miners, money redemptions, and adjacent the anticipation of an MSCI MicroStrategy delisting—an point that stood retired due to the fact that it suggests the hazard lens extends beyond spot crypto into the crypto-equity analyzable that has go a cardinal liquidity and sentiment barometer.

Farrell’s stated basal case: “an early-year bounce followed by different 1H drawdown, creating a much charismatic accidental into year-end.If I’m wrong, I’d alternatively hold for confirmation (trend breaks, flows, momentum, oregon a wide catalyst). Crypto is reflexive, and for my objective, patience matters successful no-man’s land.”

The thread ends connected a constituent galore readers missed successful the archetypal screenshot-driven outrage cycle: Farrell inactive expects BTC and ETH to “challenge caller ATHs by year-end,” describing a shorter, shallower carnivore that could compress the accepted four-year rhythm narrative. “For those who tuned into the outlook: I inactive expect BTC and ETH to situation caller ATHs by year-end, efficaciously ending the accepted four-year rhythm with a shorter, shallower bear,” helium wrote via X.

At property time, Ethereum traded astatine $3,043.