ETH chart divergence flashes warning while onchain metric predicts rally to $4.5K

Key takeaways:

• Ether perpetual futures measurement has surpassed Bitcoin, signaling a large displacement successful marketplace interest.

• A bearish RSI divergence points to short-term exhaustion.

Ether (ETH) has traded conscionable beneath the $4,000 absorption since December, 2025 and traders are uncertain whether it volition beryllium crossed immoderate clip soon. Despite the trouble successful overcoming $4,000, 1 cardinal people for bulls lies astatine the +1σ progressive realized terms band, presently hovering adjacent $4,500. The metric tracks the mean ETH cost, actively changing hands connected the network.

Data from Glassnode indicated that this level acted arsenic a ceiling during the March 2024 precocious and the 2020–21 cycle. A sustained breakout supra this enactment has antecedently triggered accelerated upward momentum, but besides carries the hazard of overheating and structural volatility.

Ether realized terms bands. Source: Glassnode/X

The momentum is besides reflected successful ETH’s aboriginal markets. Cointelegraph reported that Ether perpetual futures person surpassed Bitcoin successful measurement dominance for the archetypal clip since 2022, marking the “largest” displacement successful trading absorption toward ETH ever recorded. Likewise, pseudonymous trader Byzantine General precocious revised his short-term outlook, stating,

“I deliberation I'm incorrect astir ETH getting immoderate short-term downside. It’s excessively strong, refuses to people immoderate important correction... It’s looking similar a conscionable f***ing nonstop it moment.”

Supporting this narrative, Ether’s liquidation maps uncover a dense clump of abbreviated liquidations stacked conscionable supra $4,000. A cleanable determination supra this threshold could liquidate arsenic overmuch arsenic $930 cardinal successful positions, perchance fueling a vertical determination toward $4,500.

ETH/USDT Liquidation heatmap 3-day. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Here’s wherefore immoderate Ethereum traders expect ETH terms to deed $16K this cycle

Bearish divergences rise short-term caution for ETH

While bullish momentum dominates the narrative, a cardinal method awesome could derail the existent rally. On some the four-hour and one-day timeframes, Ether’s terms has printed caller section highs, but the comparative spot scale (RSI) has failed to corroborate the move, starring to bearish divergences.

Bearish divergences could beryllium an aboriginal motion of purchaser exhaustion, resembling patterns successful erstwhile section tops. Zooming out, the regular illustration reveals a persistent bearish divergence that hasn’t afloat resolved since ETH crossed supra $3,500. A short-term pullback toward cardinal enactment zones can’t beryllium ruled retired if terms fails to travel done beyond $4,000 with convincing volume.

Ether four-hour, one-day illustration bearish divergences. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If a bearish correction pans out, the contiguous enactment scope connected the little clip framework remains conscionable beneath $3,700, wherever a constrictive just worth spread (FVG) is observed.

However, persistent bearish unit could pb to Ether investigating its semipermanent FVG betwixt $3,200 and $3,300, starring to a bearish interruption of structure.

Related: ‘Largest’ measurement skew for ETH confirms pivot to altcoins: Glassnode

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.