El Salvador’s Bukele reacts as $1B Bitcoin holdings bet increases on Kalshi

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele called attraction to prediction markets amid expanding bets that the country’s Bitcoin holdings volition deed $1 cardinal by year-end.

Bukele took to X connected Thursday to tweet astir Kalshi’s prediction market, which shows expanding betting enactment connected El Salvador’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings hitting $1 cardinal by precocious 2025.

“I could bash the funniest happening close now,” Bukele said, arsenic the likelihood of El Salvador hitting a $1 cardinal Bitcoin milestone earlier November jumped from 20% to 38% connected Kalshi connected Thursday.

Soon aft Bukele’s post, rival level Polymarket listed a akin bet, wherever the likelihood of a $1 cardinal Bitcoin milestone by December 2025 stood astatine 43%.

Kalshi tracking the likelihood since mid-August

Kalshi’s prediction marketplace connected El Salvador’s $1 cardinal Bitcoin holdings has been progressive since mid-August, with the “before December 2025” stake holding adjacent 24% and “before November 2025” hovering astir 18% until the past fewer days.

Following the spike to arsenic precocious arsenic 38%, the “before November 2025” stake dropped to 27%, portion the “before December 2025” stake hovered astir 35%.

Kalshi’s prediction marketplace connected “When volition El Salvador's Bitcoin holdings beryllium worthy $1 billion?” Source: Kalshi

While Kalshi had been tracking the likelihood of El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings reaching $1 cardinal for respective days, rival level Polymarket lone introduced a akin marketplace pursuing Bukele’s tweet.

Related: Bitcoin concern banks coming to El Salvador — Gov regulator

“New Polymarket: Will El Salvador clasp $1 cardinal of Bitcoin by…?” the level posted connected X conscionable hours aft Bukele highlighted Kalshi’s marketplace connected Thursday.

Polymarket introduced a betting marketplace “Will El Salvador clasp $1b+ of BTC by...?” connected Wednesday. Source: Polymarket

Cointelegraph approached Kalshi and Polymarket for comments regarding the marketplace listing policies, but had not received immoderate responses by the clip of publication.

Controversy astir El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings

While Kalshi and Polymarket are acceptable to capitalize connected the rising optimism astir El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings, neither of the platforms created betting markets concerning a erstwhile controversy.

In July, El Salvador’s cardinal slope president, Douglas Pablo Rodríguez Fuentes, and curate of finance, Jerson Rogelio Posada Molina, claimed that El Salvador had stopped buying Bitcoin aft signing the $1.4 cardinal indebtedness deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) successful 2024.

Related: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele tin present tally for predetermination indefinitely

Despite those claims being portion of El Salvador’s authoritative connection with the IMF, Bukele and El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office continued tweeting astir caller Bitcoin purchases, with holdings presently being reported astatine 6,282 Bitcoin ($709 million).

Bitcoin holdings successful El Salvador’s BTC treasury. Source: Bitcoin.gob.sv

As of now, neither Juan Carlos Reyes, president of El Salvador’s National Commission connected Digital Assets, nor immoderate different contacted parties person responded to Cointelegraph’s petition successful July asking them to clarify the controversy.

The quality came amid the prediction markets gaining momentum, with erstwhile Polymarket and Kalshi enforcement Toni Gemayel announcing a $15 cardinal rise from investors similar Coinbase Ventures for the prediction marketplace level Clearing Company.

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