3 months ago
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered immoderate stableness astir its 200-day mean astatine astir $84,000 aft dipping beneath $77,000 aboriginal past week. The broader marketplace betterment was led by memecoins, layer-2 tokens and gaming tokens.
However, maintaining a sustained uptick could inactive beryllium a challenge, particularly since President Donald Trump's medication appears to person a higher tolerance for marketplace instability than galore expected. Just 2 months ago, erstwhile Trump took office, the crypto marketplace was buzzing with optimism that immoderate turbulence created by tariffs would pb to punctual argumentation enactment from the White House.
That optimism seems to person been misplaced. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said corrections are steadfast and normal, a hint that the anticipated "Trump put" mightiness instrumentality longer to materialize than traders hoped.
More importantly, connected NBC News' "Meet the Press" connected Sunday, Bessent did not regularisation retired the anticipation of a recession. This starkly contrasts with authorities officials' emblematic cognition of emphasizing "glass fractional full" position erstwhile the going gets tough.
It could mean Trump isn't acceptable to backmost down from his tariff combat conscionable yet, keeping hazard assets feeling uneasy. If banal prices proceed to fall, it's hard to ideate bitcoin staying resilient for long, particularly fixed the deficiency of uplifting narratives successful the crypto market.
"It's conscionable a guess, but I uncertainty Trump volition reverse people connected tariffs and his thrust to bring U.S. manufacturing backmost astatine these terms levels," Greg Magadini, manager of derivatives astatine Amberdata, shared successful an email. "I can’t representation a script wherever hazard assets clang and crypto remains unaffected, oregon wherever the VIX increases and crypto's implied volatility doesn’t travel suit."
Plus, sentiment is deteriorating connected Main Street, which could adhd to the caller hazard aversion successful some the crypto and accepted markets. A illustration shared connected X by Otavio Costa, a macro strategist astatine Crescat's Capital, highlights a grounds fig of U.S. consumers expecting conditions to worsen implicit the adjacent twelvemonth (see Chart of the Day, below).
The absorption connected macro means traders volition travel Wednesday's Fed gathering for cues connected the cardinal bank's readiness to deploy stimulus. The barroom is debased aft Chairman Powell said the slope is successful a wait-and-watch mode to measure the interaction of Trump's policies earlier cutting rates.
In different news, Aave Labs's Founder, Stani Kulechov, confirmed that the Aave decentralized autonomous enactment had reached a wide statement against introducing a caller token for Horizon, an Aave inaugural to integrate real-world assets into decentralized finance.
Trump is reportedly going to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin astir ending the Ukraine war. Digital plus premier broker FalconX said it had completed the “first-ever” artifact commercialized successful CME's SOL futures with StoneX arsenic counterparty. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
March 17: CME Group launches solana (SOL) futures.
March 17: Ethereum (ETH) testnet Hoodi goes live.
March 18: Zano (ZANO) hard fork web upgrade; this activates “ETH Signature enactment for off-chain signing and plus operations.”
March 20: Pascal hard fork web upgrade goes unrecorded connected the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.
March 21, 1:00 p.m.: The SEC’s Crypto Task Force hosts a roundtable, open to the public, that volition absorption connected the explanation of a security.
March 24 (before marketplace open): Bitcoin miner CleanSpark (CLSK) volition join the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
March 24, 11:00 a.m.: Bugis web upgrade goes unrecorded connected Enjin Matrixchain mainnet.
March 25: The Mimir upgrade goes unrecorded connected Chromia (CHR) mainnet.
Macro
March 17, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases February income data.
Retail Sales MoM Est. 0.7% vs. Prev. -0.9%
Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.2%
March 18, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases February user terms scale (CPI) data.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.4%
Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.1%
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.6% vs. Prev. 0.1%
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.1% vs. Prev. 1.9%
March 18, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases February residential operation data.
Housing Starts Est. 1.375M vs. Prev. 1.366M
March 18, 11:00 p.m.: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) releases its Statement connected Monetary Policy.
Interest Rate Decision Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0.5%
March 19, 6:00 a.m.: Eurostat releases (final) February eurozone user terms scale (CPI) data.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.3%
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 2.5%
March 19, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its involvement complaint decision. The FOMC property league is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
Fed Funds Interest Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%
March 19, 5:30 p.m.: The Central Bank of Brazil announces its involvement complaint decision.
Selic Rate Est. 14.25% vs. Prev. 13.25%
Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market
March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Aave DAO is discussing the launch of Horizon, a licensed lawsuit of the Aave Protocol to let institutions to “access permissionless stablecoin liquidity portion gathering issuer requirements.”
Balancer DAO is discussing the deployment of Balancer V3 connected OP Mainnet.
March 17, 10 a.m.: Jito to clasp a Delegate’s Call to sermon JIP-15, JIP-16, and its Tokenomics Report.
March 18, 6 a.m.: Toncoin (TON) to big an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session connected its ecosystem expansion.
March 18, 8 a.m.: Binanceto big an AMA session with Binance’s VP of Product Jeff Li and Binance Angel Victor Balaban.
Unlocks
March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of its circulating proviso worthy $79.80 million.
March 18: Mantra (OM) to unlock 0.51% of its circulating proviso worthy $34.1 million.
March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating proviso worthy $14.04 million.
March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating proviso worthy $96.8’0 million.
March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating proviso worthy $27.31 million.
Token Listings
March 18: Jupiter (JUP) to beryllium listed connected Arkham.
March 18: Paws (PAWS) to beryllium listed connected Bybit.
March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
CoinDesk's Consensus is taking spot in Toronto connected May 14-16. Use codification DAYBOOK and prevention 15% connected passes.
March 18-20: Digital Asset Summit 2025 (New York)
March 18-20: Fintech Americas Miami 2025
March 19-20: Next Block Expo (Warsaw)
March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires
March 25-26: PAY360 2025 (London)
March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)
March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025
March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)
March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
BNB Chain trading volumes flipped those of Ethereum and Solana implicit weekend.
Decentralized exchanges (DEX) built connected BNB Chain racked up implicit $1.7 cardinal successful trading measurement successful each of the past 3 days arsenic newer memecoins created trading opportunities for traders.
The PancakeSwap DEX processed implicit $1.2 cardinal of measurement successful the past 24 hours, helping to boost CAKE token prices by 30%.
The Mubarak (MUBARAK) memecoin emerged arsenic the token gaining the astir attraction connected X, gaining listings connected platforms similar Binance Alpha and exchanges specified arsenic Bitget connected Monday.
It was introduced done the BNB Chain-based Four Meme launchpad connected March 13, with an archetypal marketplace headdress arsenic debased arsenic $6,000. That soared past $100 cardinal connected Sunday. The coin has nary inherent inferior beyond its meme-driven appeal, emblematic of galore tokens successful this category, relying alternatively connected assemblage engagement and speculative trading.
Data from DEXTools shows brisk token issuance enactment connected BNB Chain arsenic of European greeting hours Monday, though astir caller launches neglect to interruption a $10,000 marketplace capitalization oregon autumn to zero arsenic their creators propulsion liquidity from trading pools.
Meanwhile, BNB Chain's BNB has gained 5% successful the past 24 hours amid the renewed demand, beating a broader marketplace fall.
Derivatives Positioning
The hardly affirmative BTC and ETH perpetual backing rates awesome caution and formed uncertainty connected the terms recovery. Several altcoins similar XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, LINK and TRX are seeing antagonistic rates, indicating a bias for shorts.
BTC, ETH CME futures ground remains debased adjacent 5%.
Short and near-dated BTC and ETH puts proceed to beryllium pricier than calls.
Top artifact flows successful BTC options connected Deribit featured OTM telephone selling and enactment buying.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.9% from 4 p.m. ET Friday astatine $83,468.34 (24hrs: -0.23%)
ETH is down 0.67% astatine $1,910.26 (24hrs: +0.18%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.76% astatine 2,625.62 (24hrs: -0.33%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps astatine 2.96%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0075% (8.2% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is down 0.14% astatine 103.57
Gold is unchanged astatine $2,996.63/oz
Silver is up 0.18% astatine $33.84/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +0.93% astatine 37,396.52
Hang Seng closed +0.77% astatine 24,145.57
FTSE is up 0.21% astatine 8,650.39
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.22% astatine 5,415.98
DJIA closed connected Friday +1.65% astatine 41,488.19
S&P 500 closed +2.13% astatine 5,638.94
Nasdaq closed +2.61% astatine 17,754.09
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +1.45% astatine 24,553.40
S&P 40 Latin America closed +3.83% astatine 2,432.92
U.S. 10-year Treasury complaint is down 3 bps astatine 4.29%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.35% astatine 5,672.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.31% astatine 19,858.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.39% astatine 41,685.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.60 (-0.25%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02289 (0.18%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 815 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $47.38
Total Fees: 5.22 BTC / $436,428
CME Futures Open Interest: 149,470 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 27.6 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 7.84%
Technical Analysis
The bitcoin-gold ratio has collapsed to levels past seen successful aboriginal November. The descent has penetrated the ratio's March 2024 high, flipping it into a absorption level.
The 50-day SMA has peaked and is besides trending south, looking to determination beneath the 200-day SMA successful a alleged decease cross. That would awesome a prolonged golden outperformance comparative to bitcoin.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Friday astatine $297.49 (+13%), down 1.91% astatine $291.80 successful pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $183.12 (+3.17%), down 0.63% astatine $181.97
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$17.98 (+8.18%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $13.18 (+8.39%), down 0.68% astatine $13.09
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $7.82 (+6.98%), down 0.77% astatine $7.76
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $8.81 (+1.73%), down 1.14% astatine $8.71
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $7.97 (+3.64%), down 1.25% astatine $7.87
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $15.30 (+5.01%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $34.35 (+5.3%), down 0.79% astatine $34.08
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $28.05 (+7.55%), down 7.27% astatine $26.01
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett flow: -$59.2 million
Cumulative nett flows: $35.29 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,118 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett flow: -$46.9 million
Cumulative nett flows: $2.53 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.521 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The stock of U.S. consumers expecting concern conditions to worsen successful the months up has deed a grounds high.
The improvement points to a pugnacious clip for hazard and growth-sensitive assets.
While You Were Sleeping
Bank of Korea Declines Bitcoin for Foreign Exchange Reserves Amid Volatility Concerns (Business Korea): The cardinal slope said bitcoin is unsuitable arsenic a reserve plus owed to its terms swings, constricted liquidity, deficiency of convertibility and nonaccomplishment to conscionable investment-grade recognition criteria.
OKX Suspends DEX Aggregator arsenic It 'Works Diligently' to Upgrade Security (CoinDesk): The steadfast paused its decentralized speech aggregator to instrumentality tagging and information upgrades amid EU scrutiny implicit imaginable misuse, which it denies.
Trump Says He Will Talk to Putin connected Tuesday to Discuss Ukraine (The New York Times): Trump said helium volition sermon onshore and powerfulness plants successful the March 18 call. He sees "a precise bully chance" of a 30-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire .
Trade War With Europe Puts $9.5 Trillion astatine Risk, U.S. Firms Say (The Wall Street Journal): The American Chamber of Commerce said a commercialized warfare could wounded transatlantic investments and pb to EU retaliation against U.S. work exports.
Kraken to Offer Superfast Trading With Planned Launch of Colocation Service (CoinDesk): Kraken said the work volition beryllium "accessible to each partners and clients, not conscionable institutions." Traders successful London tin expect sub-millisecond latency.
UBS Boosts Gold Target to $3,200 arsenic Trade Risks Stay Elevated (Bloomberg): The firm's analysts raised their one-year golden forecast, citing planetary commercialized tensions and rising U.S. recession risks arsenic cardinal drivers of capitalist demand.
In the Ether
English (US) 