6 months ago
By Jacob Joseph and Jamie Sly (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
As the twelvemonth winds down, the crypto marketplace seems to beryllium catching an aboriginal dose of vacation fervor. Bitcoin touched an all-time precocious conscionable beneath $108,000 yesterday and is present holding dependable astir $107,000.
Bitcoin maxis person been successful Christmas spirits ever since the U.S. elections successful aboriginal November, with President-elect Donald Trump's bullish overtures to the manufacture a motion of the increasing organization alignment with the integer plus market.
The president-elect seems to beryllium teasing "more surprises," fueling speculation of much favorable crypto policies aft helium pledged to make a strategical BTC reserve. The pledge earlier this period helped substance bitcoin’s rally.
The incoming administration’s pro-crypto rhetoric has supercharged sentiment, with immoderate analysts drafting comparisons with MicroStrategy’s equilibrium expanse playbook, but connected a nationalist scale. While the thought of the U.S. stockpiling bitcoin feels audacious, the markets look to similar the fearlessness.
While plans for a “national bitcoin reserve” stay speculative, Trump’s crypto-friendly stance is already influencing sentiment and markets. Exodus Movement (EXOD), a crypto wallet provider, conscionable secured approval to database connected NYSE American, the New York Stock Exchange’s sibling market. While a azygous listing isn’t seismic, it’s yet different information constituent suggesting U.S. markets are acceptable to invited integer plus companies backmost into the fold.
The play of giving is seen elsewhere successful crypto too, with the highly anticipated instauration of PENGU, the authoritative token of the Pudgy Penguin ecosystem. Luca Netz, Pudgy Penguins' CEO, said the token’s merchandise “opens the doorway for deeper engagement” portion rewarding long-time believers successful the ecosystem.
The PENGU airdrop follows the high-profile airdrops of Hyperliquid and Magic Eden successful caller weeks, with the former’s terms enactment serving arsenic a enactment of caution for imaginable aboriginal sellers of the token.
Avalanche released its biggest web upgrade, Avalanche9000, introducing improvements that marque it cheaper and easier to motorboat subnets. “This is the commencement of hundreds of Avalanche L1s launching,” the squad wrote connected X. “Avalanche9000 reduces the outgo to deploy an L1 by 99.9%, and with hundreds of L1s being developed connected testnet, look retired for an detonation of launches successful the coming months.” The blockchain's AVAX token is trading astatine $50.2, up 2.49% from past night’s close.
The latest limb up for BTC, however, faces a near-term headwind successful the signifier of the Federal Reserve’s complaint determination connected Wednesday. Moreover, with this rhythm marked by increasing organization participation, the markets mightiness beryllium successful for further volatility arsenic the vacation play approaches. TradFi participants often follow a risk-off stance and adjacent positions up of the break. Stay Alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Dec. 18, 9:30 a.m.: Software cryptocurrency wallet shaper Exodus Movement (EXOD) starts trading connected NYSE American, a sibling of NYSE.
Macro
Dec. 17, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2%.
Core Inflation Rate Prev. 1.7%.
Dec. 18, 2:00 a.m.: The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases November's Consumer Price Inflation bulletin.
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs Prev. 2.3%.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.6% vs Prev. 3.3%.
Dec. 18, 5:00 a.m.: Eurostat releases November's euro-area ostentation data. Inflation Rate YoY Final Est. 2.3% vs Prev. 2.0%.
Dec. 18, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its fed funds people rate, presently 4.50%-4.75%. The CME's FedWatch tool indicates that interest-rate traders delegate a 97.1% probability of a 25 basis-point cut. Press league starts astatine 2:30 p.m. Livestream link.
Dec. 18, 10:00 p.m.: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest complaint decision. Short-term involvement complaint Est. 0.25% vs. Prev. 0.25%.
Dec. 19, 7:00 a.m.: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest-rate decision. Bank Rate Est. 4.75% vs Prev. 4.75%.
Dec. 19, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases third-quarter GDP (final).
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.8% vs Prev. 3.0%.
GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 1.9% vs Prev. 2.5%.
Dec. 20, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases November's Personal Income and Outlays report.
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index YoY Prev. 2.3%.
Core PCE Price Index YoY 2.8%.
Dec. 24, 1:00 p.m. The Fed releases November’s H.6 (Money Stock Measures) report. Money Supply M2 Prev. $23.31T.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Own The Doge DAO holds a connection discussion connected which NEIRO token tin officially usage the dog's likeness.
Unlocks
Ethena to unlock 0.44% of its ENA circulating supply, worthy $14.7 cardinal astatine 2 a.m. connected Dec. 18.
QuantixAI volition unlock 5.6% of its QAI circulating supply, worthy $22 million, astatine 5 p.m. connected Dec.18.
Token Launches
Flare is launching a $260,000 retroactive airdrop, distributed bi-weekly to FAssets users connected Songbird, Flare's canary network
Conferences:
Day 2 of 2: Blockchain Association’s Policy Summit (Washington D.C.)
Jan. 13-24: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)
Jan. 17: Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025 (Los Angeles)
Jan. 18: BitcoinDay (Naples, Florida)
Jan. 20-24: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)
Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025
Jan 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa AI Agents aren't a gag class anymore. Eliza Labs, the creator of the assemblage person AI16Z, is joining Stanford University's Future of Digital Currency Initiative to probe however artificial quality agents tin amended Web3. The concern is acceptable to leverage Eliza Labs' open-source AI cause framework, an anime quality named Eliza, to probe however AI agents tin foster trust, coordinate activities and marque choices successful the satellite of decentralized finance. Starting successful 2025, the absorption volition beryllium connected crafting caller strategies for however these autonomous agents tin physique and corroborate spot successful digital-currency ecosystems — providing credence to the niche assemblage that whitethorn initially walk disconnected arsenic yet different meme play. Eliza is an open-source, decentralized AI cause model developed by ai16z, a task parodying the task superior steadfast Andreessen Horowitz (a16z). It allows users to physique and deploy autonomous AI agents that tin interact crossed aggregate platforms, including Discord, X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram. These agents tin grip voice, substance and media interactions, providing a versatile connection instrumentality for users.
Derivatives Positioning
The futures annualized rolling ground continues to interval astir 15%, making the ground commercialized an incredibly charismatic investment. This tin beryllium seen with CME futures unfastened involvement increasing by astir 30,000 BTC from the November low.
Currently, $15.4 cardinal of notional worth is acceptable to expire successful bitcoin connected Dec. 27, with astir 60% of the full acceptable to expire retired of the money.
MicroStrategy's 30-day implied volatility has dropped 53% from a Nov. 22 high, indicating the marketplace is expecting little melodramatic terms swings arsenic we attack the extremity of the trading year.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 0.93% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday to $107,069.48 (24hrs: +3.36%)
ETH is down 0.92%% astatine $4,011.12 (24hrs: +2.81%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 0.87% to 3,950.07 (24hrs: +2.93%)
Ether staking output is up 12 bps to 3.16%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.01% (10.95% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is up 0.16% astatine 107.03
Gold is unchanged astatine $2,653.70/oz
Silver is unchanged astatine $30.86/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -0.24% astatine 39,364.68
Hang Seng closed -0.48% astatine 19,700.48
FTSE is down 0.75% astatine 8,199.90
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.33% astatine 4,963.45
DJIA closed -0.25% to 43,717.48
S&P 500 closed +0.38% astatine 6,074.08
Nasdaq closed +1.24% astatine 20,173.89
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.5% astatine 25,147.20
S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.86% astatine 2,276.92
U.S. 10-year Treasury was unchanged astatine 4.42%
E-mini S&P 500 are down -0.27% astatine 6,064.00
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.31% to 22,400.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.37% astatine 43,608.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 57.88 (24hrs: +0.32%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.037 (24hrs: -0.45%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 784 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $63.4
Total Fees: $1.3 million/ 12.3 BTC
CME Futures Open Interest: 208,000 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 40.3oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 11.47%
Bitcoin sitting successful over-the-counter table balances: 405,423 BTC
Basket Performance
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has seen free-flowing terms find since breaking March's all-time precocious connected Nov. 6, with the terms rising to a grounds supra $107,000 from $73,757.
Both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) are pointing upwards, indicating bullish momentum during the terms find phase. The notably ample spread betwixt the 2 EMAs underscores the caller short-term terms enactment arsenic 1 of important strength.
Still, the RSI shows momentum gradually slowing since the March breakout, with the measurement printing a bearish divergence connected the regular chart. The existent RSI speechmaking of 70.85, whitethorn beryllium considered overbought.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed connected Monday unchanged astatine $408.50, up 1.65% astatine $415.25 successful pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $315.31 (+1.52%), up 0.67% astatine $317.42 successful pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$29.56 (+2.07%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $24.56 (+8.05%), up 2.04% astatine $25.06 successful pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $14.03 (+8.01%), up 2.49% astatine $14.38 successful pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $16.56 (+6.5%), up 1.87% astatine $16.87 successful pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $12.48 (+3.83%), up 1.2% astatine $12.63 successful pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $29.60 (+8.19%), up 1.96% astatine $30.18 successful pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $74.50 (+10.91%), up 3.36% astatine $77.00 successful pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett inflow: $636.9 million
Cumulative nett inflows: $36.21 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.131 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett inflow: $51.1 million
Cumulative nett inflows: $2.31 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.520 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
Since Sept. 19, semipermanent holders — defined by Glassnode arsenic investors who person held bitcoin for longer than 155 days — person distributed implicit 880,000 bitcoin.
On average, about, 9,887 BTC person been sold each time since Sept. 19.
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin Traders No Longer Chasing Record Price Rally, Options Data Show (CoinDesk): Bitcoin topped $107,000 Monday, but options pricing signals traders’ caution contempt this week’s expected 25 basis-point complaint cut, showing reduced enthusiasm to pursuit the uptrend successful the abbreviated term.
Trudeau Teeters successful Canada After Deputy’s Scathing Resignation (Bloomberg): Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned successful protestation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's fiscal policies, deepening a governmental situation arsenic the authorities struggles with increasing interior dissent and tariff threats from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
SEC Approves Crypto Wallet Maker Exodus to List connected NYSE American After Denying It successful May (CoinDesk): Crypto wallet steadfast Exodus Movement volition uplist from OTC Markets to NYSE American connected Dec. 18, perchance signaling a regulatory displacement pursuing Trump’s pro-crypto predetermination win.
Will the Fed Keep Cutting successful 2025? (The Wall Street Journal): Federal Reserve officials stay divided connected the gait of 2025 complaint cuts, arsenic steadfast inflation, a resilient labour market, a surging banal marketplace and the incoming administration's projected policies adhd to economical uncertainty.
Dollar Set to Extend Trump Rally, Says Wall Street (Financial Times): Wall Street is expecting the dollar to fortify successful 2025, fueled by pro-growth policies and commercialized tariffs, contempt Donald Trump’s stated tendency for a weaker currency to enactment U.S. exports.
IP-Backed Meme Token CAT Bags Binance Spot Listing, Spiking Bullish Sentiment (CoinDesk): Simon’s Cat (CAT) surged 50% connected Monday aft securing a Binance spot listing, with the enactment of its intelligence spot giving it an borderline arsenic non-IP memecoins look expanding ineligible scrutiny.
In the Ether
English (US) 