6 months ago
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
If you're waiting for a spark to ignite a Santa rally successful bitcoin and the wider crypto market, today's U.S. ostentation merchandise mightiness conscionable beryllium it.
Initially, I wasn't definite the study matters anymore. Obsessing implicit prices feels truthful 2022, erstwhile ostentation was done the extortion and the Fed squarely focused connected interest-rate hikes to tame the beast. Recently, though, CPI has been beneath 3% and the Fed has chopped rates, focusing connected balancing employment and terms stability.
The November study is <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/asian-stocks-fluctuate-as-traders-await-us-cpi/articleshow/116192395.cms?from=mdr" target="_blank">expected to show</a> a flimsy uptick successful terms pressures and determination are 2 reasons to support an oculus connected it. Firstly, BTC bulls and bears are having a showdown adjacent the all-important $100,000 level and mightiness look to fundamental/macro quality to reassert themselves. A softer-than-expected ostentation people volition apt validate Fed complaint chopped bets, perchance strengthening the bull grip for a sustained determination supra $100K. ETH mightiness spot bigger gains, having experienced a classical "throwback," oregon a bullish retest of a breakout point, adjacent $3,600 successful the past 24 hours.
But if the information comes successful hotter than estimated, particularly the halfway figure, it could adhd to the dollar's bull momentum and energize bitcoin bears, who person an vantage heading into the information release. Data shared by Hyblock Capital overnight showed a 50% order-book imbalance, with much bounds sells than buys. Cardano's ADA is besides feeling the pinch, with slippage spikes hinting astatine worsening liquidity.
The 2nd crushed is that the U.S. Treasury marketplace has been a representation of calm recently, with its volatility gauge, MOVE, plunging to 85 from 136. So, what amended than CPI to disturbance it up again, sending ripples crossed fiscal markets. Let's spot however it goes. Bank of America said it <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-inflation-stock-market-outlook-november-cpi-bank-of-america-2024-12" target="_blank">expects</a> the study to breed equity marketplace volatility.
Looking past inflation, I privation to reiterate the value of watching the Far-East. Reuters reports that China could let the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/chinese-authorities-are-considering-weaker-yuan-trump-trade-risks-loom-sources-2024-12-11/" target="_blank">yuan to depreciate adjacent year</a> successful effect to President-elect Donald Trump's poposed tariffs. While that whitethorn thrust Chinese investors toward crypto, arsenic the fashionable communicative says, a accelerated diminution mightiness unit the PBOC to intervene, <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/05/31/crypto-traders-need-to-pay-attention-to-chinese-yuan-heres-why" target="_blank">inadvertently strengthening</a> the dollar and tightening planetary fiscal conditions. That's typically not large quality for hazard assets similar BTC.
Elsewhere, Bloomberg's observers said that Nasdaq mightiness adhd MicroStrategy (MSTR) to its index, which mightiness inject $2.1 cardinal of buying request into the stock. MSTR has been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microstrategy-bitcoin-100000-michael-saylor-crypto-markets-investing-strategy-analysis-2024-12#:~:text=%22MicroStrategy%20is%20literally%20borrowing%20USD,bitcoin%20is%20more%20widely%20adopted.%22" target="_blank">literally borrowing</a> dollars to bargain BTC, becoming a leveraged stake connected the cryptocurrency. But remember, leverage works some ways; what goes up faster tin besides travel down harder.
That's plentifulness of macros to chew connected today. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Dec. 13: The yearly Nasdaq-100 reconstitution. Changes to the index, if any, are announced connected this day. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the world’s largest firm holder of bitcoin, is wide expected to beryllium added to the index.
Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02.
Macro
Dec. 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November’s <a href="https://www.bls.gov/cpi/" target="_blank">Consumer Price Index (CPI)</a> data.
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.7% vs Prev. 2.6%
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.3% vs Prev. 3.3%
Dec. 11, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada announces its <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/" target="_blank">policy involvement rate</a> (also known arsenic overnight people complaint and overnight lending rate). Est. 3.25% vs Prev. 3.75%. A property league starts astatine 10:30 a.m. <a href="https://youtu.be/x-motc1cW8s" target="_blank">Livestream link</a>
Dec. 12, 8:15 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its latest <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/mopo/html/index.en.html" target="_blank">monetary argumentation decision</a> (three cardinal involvement rates), followed by a <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/html/index.en.html" target="_blank">press conference</a> astatine 8:45 a.m.
Deposit installation involvement complaint Est. 3.0% vs Prev. 3.25%.
Main refinancing operations involvement complaint Est. 3.15% vs Prev. 3.4%.
Marginal lending installation involvement complaint Prev. 3.65%.
Dec. 12, 8:30 a.m. The U.S. Department of Labor releases the <a href="https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf" target="_blank">Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report </a>for the week ended Dec. 7. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 220K vs Prev. 224K.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
The Sandbox DAO is holding a ballot to allocate $102,000 successful backing to make Deep Sea, a fearfulness game. The ballot volition extremity connected Dec. 25.
Spartan Council is holding a ballot connected updating trading interest organisation successful favour of liquidity providers connected Synthetix exchange.
Unlocks
Aptos (APT) volition unlock $132 cardinal worthy of tokens astatine 16:00 UTC connected Dec. 11.
Arbitrum (ARB) volition unlock $88 cardinal worthy of tokens connected Dec. 16.
Token Launches
Fuel Network announced the instauration of a caller token (FUEL), with issuance planned wrong the adjacent 2 weeks.
Conferences:
Dec. 9 - 12: <a href="https://adfw.com/" target="_blank">Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2024</a> (Abu Dhabi, UAE)
Dec. 9 - 13: <a href="https://www.blockchainweek.lu/" target="_blank">Luxembourg Blockchain Week 2024</a>
Dec. 12 - 13: <a href="https://www.globalblockchainshow.com/" target="_blank">Global Blockchain Show</a> (Dubai, UAE)
Dec. 12 - 14: <a href="https://www.taipeiblockchainweek.com/" target="_blank">Taipei Blockchain Week 2024</a> (Taipei, Taiwan)
Dec. 13: <a href="https://www.limitlesscrypto.com/" target="_blank">Limitless Crypto 2024</a> (San Juan, Puerto Rico)
Dec. 16 - 17: <a href="https://theblockchainassociation.org/policy-summit-2024/" target="_blank">Blockchain Association’s Policy Summit</a> (Washington D.C.)
Jan. 13 - 24: <a href="https://web3fest.ch/swiss-web3fest/" target="_blank">Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025</a> (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)
Jan. 17: <a href="https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/about/clubs-and-associations/institutions/entrepreneur-association-ea/unchained" target="_blank">Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025</a> (Los Angeles)
Jan. 18: <a href="https://bitcoinday.io/" target="_blank">BitcoinDay</a> (Napes, Florida)
Jan. 21: <a href="https://www.tokenizationsummit.de/eng" target="_blank">Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025</a>
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa You mightiness find memecoins to beryllium a whimsical portion of the crypto market, but they are proving to beryllium superior concern for speech upstarts. Memecoin trading propelled Solana-based Raydium to apical the decentralized speech (DEX) rankings by measurement for the 2nd consecutive period successful November, eclipsing long-time person Uniswap with $124.6 cardinal successful measurement versus $90.5 billion.
Raydium captured implicit 60% of the regular full DEX measurement past month. A important portion, peaking astatine 65%, came from trading successful memecoins, according to a Messari study released Tuesday.
This maturation mirrors a larger displacement successful the market, with Solana's regular DEX measurement overtaking Ethereum's. In November, Solana commanded astir 50% of the DEX enactment crossed each blockchains; Ethereum captured 18%.
Memecoins connected Solana are known for their precocious volatility, attracting traders looking for speedy gains, and their speculative quality has led to important trading volumes. For much connected memecoins and Solana, cheque retired the illustration of <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/12/10/ansem-the-memecoin-king" target="_blank">Ansem, the Memecoin King</a>, successful <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk-news/2024/12/05/most-influential-2024" target="_blank">CoinDesk's Most Influential 2024</a>.
The latest inclination is AI agents, oregon meme tokens that assertion to usage AI for products specified arsenic fiscal probe oregon euphony creation. Tokens similar AI16Z and ZEREBRO person tally to marketplace caps successful excess of $300 cardinal from nether under $10,000 successful a fewer weeks.
Memecoins often commencement trading connected Raydium aft hitting marketplace headdress thresholds connected <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/12/10/pump-fun-solana-s-memecoin-juggernaut" target="_blank">launch platforms similar Pump.fun</a> — the most-used token issuance level and different of CoinDesk's astir influential — giving it a watercourse of caller tokens each day. Such enactment has minted Raydium developers' gross of implicit $25 cardinal since October, much than $500 cardinal since January. That's 10 times the<a href="https://defillama.com/protocol/raydium#fees-revenue" target="_blank"> $44 cardinal the DEX made successful 2023</a>, DefLLama information shows. A fewer radical are astir apt wishing the frenzy ne'er ends.
Derivatives Positioning
Perpetual backing rates successful small-cap tokens, often considered a proxy for speculative frenzy, are nary longer overheated and person normalized to levels seen successful bitcoin and ether.
BTC options flows proceed to thin bullish, with notable enactment successful calls astatine the $130,000 and $150,000 strikes expiring successful February and March, respectively.
Strong uptake has been seen for ETH $3,300 enactment expiring Dec. 20 and $3,750 telephone expiring Dec. 13.
Friday expiry BTC and ETH puts are trading astatine a flimsy premium to calls, reflecting interest of short-term downside volatility.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 1.44 % from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday to $98,278.92 (24hrs: +0.53%)
ETH is up 1.95% astatine $3,710.30 (24hrs: -0.88%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 3% to 3,688.50 (24hrs: +1.49%)
Ether staking output is up 24 bps to 3.47%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.01% (10.95% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is up 0.31% astatine 106.73
Gold is up 1% astatine $2,724.5/oz
Silver is up 0.53% to $32.53/oz
Nikkei 225 closed unchanged astatine 39,372.23
Hang Seng closed -0.77% astatine 20,155.05
FTSE is unchanged astatine 8,283.83
Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged astatine 4,950.03
DJIA closed connected Tuesday -0.35% to 44,247.83
S&P 500 closed -0.3% astatine 6,034.91
Nasdaq closed -0.25% astatine 19,687.24
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.47% astatine 25,504.30
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.21% astatine 2,361.59
U.S. 10-year Treasury was unchanged astatine 4.24%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged astatine 6,051.00
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.2% to 21,447.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.17% astatine 44,258.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 56.88% (-0.11%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03782 (0.67%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 773 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $60.19
Total Fees: 15.87 BTC / $1.55M
CME Futures Open Interest: 194K BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 35.6 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 10.38%
Bitcoin sitting successful over-the-counter table balances: 432.09K BTC
Basket Performance
Technical Analysis
The illustration shows a palmy <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/06/14/bitcoins-price-throwback-suggests-potential-for-rally-to-37k-valkyrie-investments" target="_blank">throwback</a>, oregon bullish-retest, of a breakout constituent successful ETH.
An plus typically sees a throwback to assemblage retired anemic hands earlier staging a beardown rally.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed connected Tuesday astatine $377.32 (+3.28%), up 1.77% astatine $384.00 successful pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $302.42 (-2.61%), up 3.12% astatine $311.85 successful pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$25.98 (-2.77%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $22.81 (-4.4%), up 1.95% astatine $23.25 successful pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $11.10 (-0.98%), up 1.26% astatine $11.24 successful pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $15.78 (-1.62%), up 0.95% astatine $15.93 successful pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $12.94 (-4.57%), up 1.47% astatine $13.13 successful pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $27.13 (-5.07%), up 3.32% astatine $28.03 successful pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $59.83 (-3.69%), up 1.09% astatine $60.48 successful pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett inflow: $438.5 million
Cumulative nett inflows: $34.32 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.113 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett inflow: $305.7 million
Cumulative nett inflows: $1.86 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.323 million.
Source: <a href="https://farside.co.uk/btc/" target="_blank">Farside Investors</a>
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The Truflation index, which uses information from implicit 30 sources including Amazon, Walmart and Zillow, to make an scale of prices for goods and services, has surged to 2.84%, the highest since September 2023.
Its a motion of sticky terms pressures that whitethorn soon amusement up successful the authoritative CPI figures.
While You Were Sleeping
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/12/10/binance-partners-with-circle-to-push-usdc-stablecoin-adoption-across-the-globe" target="_blank">Binance Partners With Circle to Push USDC Stablecoin Adoption Across the Globe</a> (CoinDesk): Binance volition follow Circle's USDC for its firm treasury and enactment with the institution to marque it easier for customers to usage the stablecoin for trading, savings and payments.
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/11/bitcoin-s-100-k-breakout-pause-likely-due-to-liquidity-factors-and-nvidias-stalled-rally" target="_blank">Bitcoin’s $100K Breakout Pause Likely Due to Liquidity Factors and Nvidia's Stalled Rally</a> (CoinDesk): Bitcoin remains range-bound betwixt $90,000 and $100,000, held backmost by slowing liquidity inflows and a weakening correlation with Nvidia stock, whose caller momentum has besides slowed.
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/south-koreas-martial-law-chaos-deepens-with-a-suicide-attempt-and-raids-bdc2efe7" target="_blank">South Korea’s Martial-Law Chaos Deepens, With a Suicide Attempt and Raids</a> (The Wall Street Journal): South Korea’s governmental turmoil escalated with the erstwhile defence minister’s termination effort connected Tuesday and a constabulary raid connected the statesmanlike bureau connected Wednesday.
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/12/10/magic-edens-5-b-token-airdrop-raises-crypto-wallet-security-questions" target="_blank">Magic Eden's $5B Token Airdrop Raises Crypto Wallet Security Questions</a> (CoinDesk): NFT marketplace Magic Eden’s ME token motorboat faced challenges, including a analyzable assertion process raising information concerns and dense selling that rapidly drove down its price.
<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8cc8fa3f-ce2c-463a-90a0-6cc4bb02c091" target="_blank">US Stocks Rally Set to Slow arsenic Investor ‘Euphoria’ Fades, Say Big Banks</a> (Financial Times): Wall Street banks expect the S&P 500 to emergence lone 8% successful 2025, reflecting concerns implicit elevated valuations, slowing AI-related growth, cautious sentiment toward Big Tech and uncertainties tied to President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.
<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bank-england-set-stay-central-bank-slow-lane-keep-rates-hold-2024-12-11/" target="_blank">Bank of England Set to Stay successful Central Bank Slow Lane, Keep Rates connected Hold</a> (Reuters): Analysts expect the Bank of England to clasp the benchmark involvement complaint astatine 4.75% connected Dec. 19, citing concerns that accrued authorities spending and higher leader taxes successful the caller fund whitethorn substance inflation.
In the Ether
English (US) 