Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Seen Overcoming Bearish Futures, Options Signals

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Markets are accustomed to unit successful the Middle East. That, astatine least, is the decision you mightiness gully from the mode fiscal markets — particularly lipid — reacted to the U.S. airstrikes connected Iran's atomic sites implicit the play and the menace of Iran blocking the cardinal Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

Both Brent and WTI crude gapped higher by conscionable 3% aboriginal Monday and person since reversed gains alongside affirmative moves successful bitcoin (BTC) and futures tied to the S&P 500. The dollar scale is trading somewhat higher and golden is nursing mean losses.

Long-term catalysts volition flooded immoderate bearish sentiment, said Valentine Fournier, an expert astatine BRN.

"Despite short-term volatility and [short-lived] risk-off sentiment, semipermanent structural request is increasing stronger. Public entities similar Texas and corporations similar MetaPlanet are solidifying bitcoin’s presumption arsenic a strategical reserve, laying the groundwork for a rebound erstwhile uncertainty fades," Fournier said successful an email.

"We stay constructive connected bitcoin’s resilience and judge Solana could outperform successful a recovery. Ethereum has mislaid immoderate organization enactment abbreviated term, but whitethorn regain crushed arsenic volatility cools," Fournier added.

Mean Theodorou, co-founder astatine crypto speech Coinstash, said volatility could persist during the week up arsenic macro conditions and governmental headlines stay successful the drivers' seat, with each eyes fixated connected the U.S.-Iran situation.

Other observers pointed to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semiannual monetary argumentation grounds to Congress, scheduled for Tuesday, and Friday's merchandise of halfway PCE information arsenic cardinal events for the week.

Theodorou said that altcoins whitethorn stay progressive arsenic traders question opportunities extracurricular of major-cap tokens, though "caution is warranted fixed caller terms instability, with DOGE, ADA and SOL each posting steep double-digit losses, highlighting wide marketplace de-risking arsenic planetary struggle is acceptable to predominate astir determination making successful the near-term."

In different news, Tokyo-listed Metaplanet said it bought different 1,111 BTC. The cryptocurrency speech OKX is reportedly considering an archetypal nationalist offering (IPO) successful the U.S. Grant Cardone, CEO of existent property concern steadfast Cardone Capital, disclosed that the institution has added astir 1,000 BTC to its equilibrium sheet.

As for the processing power of artificial intelligence, popular AI cause Aixbt said decentralized perpetuals-focused speech Hyperliquid has proved DeFi tin outperform during existent stress, referring the risk-off implicit the weekend.

"Next situation gonna abstracted the platforms that really enactment from the ones propped up by VC wealth and bare promises," the cause said. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • June 25: ZIGChain (ZIG) mainnet will spell live.
  • June 30: CME Group volition introduce spot-quoted futures, pending regulatory approval, allowing trading successful bitcoin, ether and large U.S. equity indices with contracts holdable for up to 5 years.
• Macro
  • June 23: The 20th EU-Canada Summit successful Brussels, with EU leaders António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, focusing connected strategical partnership, trade, security, energy, and situation management. Leaders are expected to hold connected the EU-Canada Security and Defence Partnership and contented a associated statement.
  • June 23, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases April retail income data.
    • Retail Sales MoM Prev. 0.5%
    • Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.3%
  • June 23, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (flash) June U.S. information connected manufacturing and services activity.
    • Composite PMI Prev. 53
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 51 vs. Prev. 52
    • Services PMI Est. 52.9 vs. Prev. 53.7
  • June 23, 10 a.m.: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman volition present a code connected "Monetary Policy and Banking." Livestream link.
  • June 23, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses releases Q1 GDP data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 1.1%
    • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 6.1% vs. Prev. 2.1%
  • June 24, 8:30 a.m.: 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases May user terms ostentation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.5%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.5%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.1%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 1.7% vs. Prev. 1.7%
  • June 24, 10 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell testifies earlier the U.S. House Financial Services Committee connected the semiannual monetary argumentation report. Livestream link.
  • June 24, 10 a.m.: The Conference Board (CB) releases June U.S. user assurance data.
    • CB Consumer Confidence Est. 99.8 vs. Prev. 98
  • June 24–25: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit successful The Hague, the Netherlands, wherever heads of state, overseas and defence ministers of 32 allies and partners volition conscionable to sermon security, defence spending and cooperation.
  • June 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell testifies earlier the U.S. Senate Committee connected Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs connected the semiannual monetary argumentation report. Livestream link.
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • June 23 (TBC): HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, $-0.12

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • ApeCoin DAO is voting connected whether to sunset the decentralized autonomous organization and motorboat ApeCo, a caller entity established by Yuga Labs with a ngo to “supercharge the APE ecosystem.” Voting ends June 24.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting connected lowering the law quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens. This aims to lucifer decreased elector information and assistance well-supported proposals walk much easily, without affecting non-constitutional proposals, which stay astatine a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
  • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded outgo card to “to span the spread betwixt integer assets successful the Polkadot ecosystem and mundane spending.” Voting ends July 9.
  • June 25, 5:30 p.m.: A BNB Super Meetup is being hosted successful New York.
• Unlocks
  • June 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating proviso worthy $15.48 million.
  • July 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.3$ of its circulating proviso worthy $109.99 million.
  • July 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.67% of its circulating proviso worthy $988 million.
  • July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating proviso worthy $45.24 million.
  • July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating proviso worthy $13.29 million.
• Token Launches
  • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).
  • June 26: Sahara AI (SAHARA) to beryllium listed connected OKX, Bitget, MEXC, CoinW, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done July 17.

• June 24-26: Blockworks' Permissionless IV (New York)
• June 25-26: Bitcoin Policy Institute’s Bitcoin Policy Summit 2025 (Washington)
• June 26: The Injective Summit (New York)
• June 26-27: Istanbul Blockchain Week
• June 30 to July 3: Ethereum Community Conference (Cannes, France)

Token Talk

by Shaurya Malwa

• Kraken-backed layer-2 blockchain Ink is gaining momentum up of its INK token rollout, with regular transactions topping 500,000 and progressive contracts doubling since May.
• The Ink Foundation announced a 1 cardinal fixed-supply INK token and a assemblage airdrop via an Aave liquidity pool.
• Despite rising activity, Ink's full worth locked (TVL) remains nether $8 million, signaling untapped maturation potential.
• Ink started its mainnet successful aboriginal December, beating its archetypal Q1 2025 schedule.
• Fully EVM-compatible, Ink enables developers to migrate Ethereum apps for cheaper and faster execution.
• The web is portion of Optimism’s Superchain, joining Base, Sony, Uniswap and others successful a broader layer-2 (L2) ecosystem.
• The INK token volition not beryllium utilized for governance, but for incentivizing liquidity and app usage connected the network.

Derivatives Positioning

• Annualized BTC futures ground connected offshore exchanges has dropped beneath 5%, astir closing the spread with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. Meanwhile, connected the CME, ground remains dependable astir 7%. A akin dynamic is seen successful the ether market.
• Funding rates for BTC and ETH were somewhat positive, portion TRX, BCH and XLM rates were profoundly antagonistic successful a motion of bias for abbreviated positions.
• The terms betterment from overnight lows looked shaky arsenic the cumulative measurement delta for astir tokens, including BTC, was negative. A antagonistic CVD indicates stronger selling pressure.
• On Deribit, near-dated puts traded astatine a premium to calls, reflecting downside fears, with bullishness emerging intelligibly lone aft September expiry.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 2.03% from 4 p.m. ET Friday astatine $101,619.64 (24hrs: -0.9%)
• ETH is down 7.2% astatine $2,253.11 (24hrs: -0.34%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 4.54% astatine 2,803.26 (24hrs: -0.9%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 23 bps astatine 3.13%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0007% (0.8191% annualized) connected OKX

• DXY is up 0.60% astatine 99.29
• Gold futures are down 0.16% astatine $3,380.20
• Silver futures are up 0.26% astatine $36.11
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.13% astatine 38,354.09
• Hang Seng closed up 0.67% astatine 23,689.13
• FTSE is unchanged astatine 8,774.97
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.20% astatine 5,223.01
• DJIA closed connected Friday up 0.08% astatine 42,206.82
• S&P 500 closed down 0.22% astatine 5,967.84
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.51% astatine 19,447.41
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.03% astatine 26,497.57
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.83% astatine 2,592.58
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is up 1 bp astatine 4.39%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.21% astatine 6,030.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.23% astatine 21,894.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.09% astatine 42,552.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 65.67% (-0.07%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02218 (0.59%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 835 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $50.94
• Total Fees: 2.78 BTC / $282,367.38
• CME Futures Open Interest: 149,590 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 29.6 oz
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 8.39%

Technical Analysis

• The dollar scale (DXY), which tracks the U.S. currency's worth against large peers, has risen past the trendline that characterizes the downtrend from January highs.
• The breakout could headdress gains successful the dollar-denominated assets similar golden and bitcoin.

Crypto Equities

Effective June 30, the terms for Galaxy volition beryllium for its Nasdaq listing denominated successful U.S. dollars alternatively than the Canadian-dollar-denominated listing connected the TSX.

• Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Friday astatine $369.7 (+0.18%), -1.33% astatine $364.80 successful pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $308.38 (+4.43%), -1.69% astatine $303.18
• Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $240.28 (+20.39%), +7.1% astatine $257.34
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$25.80 (-3.19%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $14.32 (-1.17%), -1.54% astatine $14.10
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $9.56 (-3.82%), -1.15% astatine $9.45
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $11.86 (-0.34%), -0.51% astatine $11.80
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $9 (-1.96%), -1.22% astatine $8.89
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $18.58 (-0.64%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $36.14 (+13.15%), -1.77% astatine $35.50
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $31.64 (+4.98%), -1.36% astatine $31.21

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $6.4
• Cumulative nett flows: $46.64 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.22 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flows: -$11.3
• Cumulative nett flows: $3.91 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~3.98 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The crypto marketplace remains defined by stark dichotomy: On 1 hand, bitcoin, ether and stablecoins are rapidly being integrated into the planetary fiscal system.
• On the different hand, obscure memecoins proceed to substance wild, speculative trading.
• On Sunday, the lesser-known integer lipid memecoin (OIL) surged implicit 500% arsenic Iran threatened to artifact the Strait of Hormuz.

While You Were Sleeping

• Iran Issues Stark Warning to Trump ‘The Gambler:' We Will End This War (Reuters): A spokesperson for Iran’s subject said U.S. strikes connected the country’s uranium enrichment facilities expanded its database of imaginable targets for retaliatory action.
• Oil, Gas Prices Rise arsenic U.S. Strikes connected Iran Fuel Supply Fears (The Wall Street Journal): Blocking the Strait of Hormuz could propulsion lipid supra $100 a barrel, analysts warn, with lone a 3rd of regular exports reroutable done pipelines successful Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
• Bitcoin Holds Key Support; Oil Disappoints 'Doomers' arsenic Brent and WTI Erase Early Price Gains (CoinDesk): Bitcoin bounced backmost supra $101,000 aft dipping beneath $98,000, portion ING noted lipid markets look unconcerned astir a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent retreating beneath $80 aft an aboriginal spike.
• Bitcoin Bounces From War-Driven Dip, Eyes $98.2K arsenic Key Bull Market Line (CoinDesk): Analysts highlighted a bitcoin terms of $98,200 — the mean outgo ground of precocious moved coins — arsenic the threshold separating bullish breakouts from inclination reversals.
• Metaplanet Buys 1,111 Bitcoin for $117M, Pushes Total Holdings to Over 11K BTC (CoinDesk): The Japanese company's acquisition astatine an mean terms of $105,681 per bitcoin raised its full holdings to 11,111 BTC with an mean outgo ground of $95,700 per bitcoin.
• EU and Canada Prepare to Sign Security Pact Ahead of NATO Summit (Bloomberg): Canada and the EU volition motion a information and defence pact successful Brussels, a archetypal measurement toward joining SAFE, the EU’s arms money that could unfastened caller markets to Canadian defence contractors.

In the Ether