Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Reclaims $105K as Iran Tensions Ease, Bulls Regroup

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

"Always slice geopolitics," the founders of the LondonCryptoClub newsletter said Monday arsenic bitcoin BTC fell beneath $100,000 aft Iran fired missiles astatine U.S. airbases successful the Middle East.

It looks similar they were right. BTC rapidly reversed its driblet and has since topped $105,000, restoring spirits successful the broader market, wherever VIRTUAL, JUP and SEI are flashing gains of implicit 20%, according to CoinDesk data.

The way of slightest absorption appears to beryllium to the higher side, with President Donald Trump announcing a ceasefire betwixt Israel and Iran, though unconfirmed reports of caller aggression by Tehran and a effect from Jerusalem present a enactment of caution.

Also supporting a gain: At slightest 2 Fed members appointed by Trump are present leaning successful favor of a complaint chopped adjacent period and the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency is studying the usage of crypto holdings successful the owe qualification process.

Anthony Pompliano's ProCap Financial plans to spell public done a merger with Columbus Circle Capital, with a absorption connected bitcoin plus absorption and gross generation.

"While the ceasefire optimism is driving short-term gains, the hazard of renewed tensions remains elevated," Valentin Fournier, the pb probe expert astatine BRN, said successful an email. "That said, ETF inflows and ProCap’s IPO awesome increasing organization demand, adjacent adjacent rhythm highs — a beardown ballot of assurance for semipermanent upside."

The U.S. Federal Reserve removed the conception of “reputational risk” from its ceremonial slope supervision program, supposedly easing crypto banking restrictions. Bloomberg reported that VMS Group, a multifamily bureau with conscionable nether $4 cardinal successful assets nether management, is considering a $10 cardinal allocation to strategies managed by decentralized concern hedge money Re7 Capital.

In accepted markets, the dollar scale fell to 98, extending Monday's sell-off, portion the terms of golden dropped to its 50-day elemental moving mean astatine $3,318. Nasdaq futures chalked retired a aureate crossover, offering bullish cues to the crypto market. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • June 25: ZIGChain (ZIG) mainnet will spell live.
  • June 30: CME Group volition introduce spot-quoted futures, pending regulatory approval, allowing trading successful bitcoin, ether and large U.S. equity indices with contracts holdable for up to 5 years.
• Macro
  • June 24, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases May user terms ostentation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.5%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.5%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.1%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 1.7% vs. Prev. 1.7%
  • June 24, 10 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell testifies earlier the U.S. House Financial Services Committee connected the semiannual monetary argumentation report. Livestream link.
  • June 24, 10 a.m.: The Conference Board (CB) releases June U.S. user assurance data.
    • CB Consumer Confidence Est. 99.8 vs. Prev. 98
  • Day 1 of 2: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit successful The Hague, the Netherlands, wherever heads of state, overseas and defence ministers of 32 allies and partners volition conscionable to sermon security, defence spending and cooperation.
  • June 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell testifies earlier the U.S. Senate Committee connected Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs connected the semiannual monetary argumentation report. Livestream link.
  • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases May manufactured durable goods orders data.
    • Durable Goods Orders MoM Est. 7.2% vs. Prev. -6.3%
    • Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM Prev. -7.5%
    • Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.2%
  • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (final) Q1 GDP data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Est. -0.2% vs. Prev. 2.4%
    • GDP Price Index QoQ Final Est. 3.7% vs. Prev. 2.3%
    • GDP Sales QoQ Final Est. -2.9% vs. Prev. 3.3%
  • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment security information for the week ended June 21.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 247K vs. Prev. 245K
    • Continuing Jobless Claims Prev. 1945K
  • June 26, 3 p.m.: Mexico's cardinal bank, the Bank of Mexico, announces its involvement complaint decision.
    • Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 8% Prev. 8.5%
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • None successful the adjacent future.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • ApeCoin DAO is voting connected whether to sunset the decentralized autonomous organization and motorboat ApeCo, a caller entity established by Yuga Labs with a ngo to “supercharge the APE ecosystem.” Voting ends June 24.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting connected lowering the law quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens. This aims to lucifer decreased elector information and assistance well-supported proposals walk much easily, without affecting non-constitutional proposals, which stay astatine a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
  • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded outgo card to “to span the spread betwixt integer assets successful the Polkadot ecosystem and mundane spending.” Voting ends July 9.
  • June 25, 5:30 p.m.: A BNB Super Meetup is being hosted successful New York.
• Unlocks
  • June 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating proviso worthy $15.48 million.
  • July 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating proviso worthy $109.99 million.
  • July 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.67% of its circulating proviso worthy $988 million.
  • July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating proviso worthy $45.24 million.
  • July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating proviso worthy $13.29 million.
• Token Launches
  • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).
  • June 26: Sahara AI (SAHARA) to beryllium listed connected OKX, Bitget, MEXC, CoinW, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done July 17.

• Day 1 of 3: Blockworks' Permissionless IV (New York)
• June 24: Finnovex Qatar 2025 (Doha)
• June 24: ETHMilan 2025 (Milan)
• June 24: Africa Fintech Forum 2025 (Cairo)
• June 25-26: Bitcoin Policy Institute’s Bitcoin Policy Summit 2025 (Washington)
• June 25-26: CDAO Government 2025 (Washington)
• June 25-26: FinTech Summit Africa 2025 (Johannesburg)
• June 25-26: Money Expo Colombia 2025 (Bogota)
• June 25-26: NFY.NYC 2025 (New York)
• June 25-27: 7th Blockchain and Internet of Things Conference (Tsukuba, Japan)
• June 25-27: 7th International Congress connected Blockchain and Applications (Lille, France)
• June 25-28: Solana Solstice 2025 (New York)
• June 26: The Injective Summit (New York)
• June 26: Webit 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
• June 26-27: Istanbul Blockchain Week
• June 26-27: Seoul Meta Week 2025 (Seoul)
• June 28: Cyprus Blockchain Summit 2025 (Limmasol)
• June 28-29: The Bitcoin Rodeo (Calgary, Canada)
• June 30: RWA Cannes Summit 2025 (Cannes, France)
• June 30 to July 3: Ethereum Community Conference (Cannes, France)
• June 30 to July 5: World Venture Forum 2025 (Kitzbühel, Austria)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Ethereum developer Barnabé Monnot projected EIP-7782, halving slot times from 12 seconds to 6 seconds to boost web velocity and idiosyncratic experience.
• Faster blocks mean faster confirmations, with much predominant information updates for wallets, DeFi apps, and L2s — creating a smoother, much responsive blockchain.
• DeFi ratio could amended arsenic a effect of tighter arbitrage windows, faster terms find and little trading fees owed to higher liquidity successful AMMs.
• Key timing changes see reducing artifact connection clip to 3 seconds, attestations to 1.5 seconds and aggregation to 1.5 seconds.
• Monnot argues Ethereum’s “service price” volition rise, making it much competitory arsenic a planetary colony and confirmation layer.
• Potential drawbacks see bandwidth pressure, validator show issues, and web instability if poorly implemented.
• The connection targets the 2026 Glamsterdam upgrade, which focuses connected state optimizations and protocol-level speedups crossed the Ethereum blockchain.

Derivatives Positioning

• Cumulative unfastened involvement successful BTC modular and perpetual futures listed worldwide dropped to 650K BTC connected Monday, the lowest since May 18, earlier bouncing somewhat aboriginal today. ETH futures showed akin trends.
• BNB, BCH, DOT spot antagonistic backing rates successful a bias for bearish abbreviated positions successful perpetual futures markets. BTC, ETH backing rates held moderately positive.
• SHIB, ETH, HBAR person seen the astir maturation successful the affirmative cumulative measurement delta, implying nett buying pressure.
• On Deribit, enactment skews person weakened astatine the front-end, with ETH puts inactive pricier than BTC.
• Block flows connected OTC web Paradigm person been mixed.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.43% from 4 p.m. ET Monday astatine $105,285.37 (24hrs: +3.78%)
• ETH is up 2.96% astatine $2,417.93 (24hrs: +7.67%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 2.89% astatine 2,970.00 (24hrs: +6.84%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bps astatine 3.12%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0035% (3.804% annualized) connected Binance

• DXY is down 0.48% astatine 97.94
• Gold futures are down 1.75% astatine $3,335.50
• Silver futures are down 0.38% astatine $36.05
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.14% astatine 38,790.56
• Hang Seng closed up 2.06% astatine 24,177.07
• FTSE is up 0.41% astatine 8,793.55
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.77% astatine 5,314.14
• DJIA closed connected Monday up 0.89% astatine 42,581.78
• S&P 500 closed up 0.96% astatine 6,025.17
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.94% astatine 19,630.97
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.42% astatine 26,609.36
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.27% astatine 2,585.46
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is unchanged astatine 4.35%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.92% astatine 6,133.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.19% astatine 22,337.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.80% astatine 43,246.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 65.3 (-0.12%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02298 (0.31%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 799 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $53.3
• Total Fees: 4.89 BTC / $500,494
• CME Futures Open Interest: 149,575 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 31.1 oz
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 8.82%

Technical Analysis

• DOGE's regular illustration shows prices are looking to bounce from April lows nether 15 cents, hinting astatine a imaginable treble bottommost pattern.
• A emergence beyond the horizontal absorption (neckline) is needed to corroborate the treble bottommost breakout and awesome bullish inclination reversal.

Crypto Equities

Effective June 30, the terms for Galaxy volition beryllium for its Nasdaq listing denominated successful U.S. dollars alternatively than the Canadian-dollar-denominated listing connected the TSX.

• Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Monday astatine $367.18 (-0.68%), +1.87% astatine $374.05 successful pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $307.59 (-0.26%), +3.09% astatine $317.10
• Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $263.45 (+9.64%), +0.46% astatine $264.66
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$25.38 (-1.63%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $14.18 (-0.98%), +2.61% astatine $14.55
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $9.27 (-3.03%), +2.91% astatine $9.54
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $11.35 (-4.3%), +2.82% astatine $11.67
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $8.85 (-1.67%), +2.82% astatine $9.10
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $18.09 (-2.64%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $41.98 (+16.17%), +1.94% astatine $42.80
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $28.77 (-9.07%), +6.6% astatine $30.67

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flow: $350.6 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $47.0 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.23 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flow: $ 100.7 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $4.0 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.98 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The illustration shows the fig of progressive oregon unfastened BTC/USD longs (bullish bets) connected crypto speech Bitfinex.
• The tally is rising again.
• Historically, determination has been an inverse correlation betwixt the longs and bitcoin's price.

While You Were Sleeping

• Israel Says It Agreed to Bilateral Ceasefire With Iran, Will ‘Respond Forcefully’ to Any Violation (The Times of Israel): The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) met and surpassed each the operation's objectives, eliminating atomic and ballistic rocket threats deemed instantly existential, according to the premier minister's office.
• Bitcoin Could Spike to $120K, Here Are 4 Factors Boosting the Case for a BTC Bull Run (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s resilience passim the Iran-Israel war, falling lipid prices, imaginable Fed complaint cuts and bullish method signals are reinforcing the lawsuit for further gains.
• Metaplanet Plans to Inject $5B Into U.S. Unit to Accelerate Bitcoin Buying Strategy (CoinDesk): The Japanese steadfast volition usage its Florida-based unit, launched May 1, to accelerate bitcoin accumulation toward a 210,000-coin extremity by the extremity of 2027, leveraging U.S. fiscal infrastructure for businesslike large-scale acquisition.
• Ark Invest Continues to Dump Circle Shares, Buys Robinhood and Coinbase (CoinDesk): ARK sold 415,855 Circle (CRCL) shares crossed 3 ETFs connected Monday, pursuing past week’s 609,175-share sale, aft the banal surged much than sevenfold since its IPO.
• Trump’s Iran Attack Spurs Concerns of Retaliation successful the U.S. (The Wall Street Journal): FBI offices successful large U.S. cities were ordered to refocus connected Iran-related threats, portion Department of Homeland Security flagged accrued risks of cyberattacks and hatred crimes targeting Jewish and pro-Israel communities.
• Starmer and Zelenskiy Agree Military Production Project successful London (Reuters): Under the caller three-year agreement, Ukraine volition stock battlefield drone information with the U.K., enabling British factories to rapidly nutrient and proviso ample numbers of drones for usage against Russia.

In the Ether