Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Rallies Into July as Options, Futures Signal Indifference

15 hours ago

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) has edged up 0.9% successful the past 24 hours, recovering from a dip aft its record monthly close astatine the extremity of June. July whitethorn transportation the inclination forward, if humanities information is immoderate motion of what's ahead.

BTC has risen successful each but 3 Julys successful the past 10 years, with an mean summation of astir 7%, according to CoinGlass data. Further grounds comes from marketplace shaper Wintermute, which plotted the mean regular bitcoin backing complaint — a proxy for capitalist sentiment — against spot returns since 2022. It recovered July is the lone period that pairs comparatively beardown gains with comparatively subdued sentiment.

In the past 3 years, bitcoin returned much than 0.3% a time connected mean portion backing hugged zero during the month, according to a enactment the marketplace shaper shared with CoinDesk.

Of course, past show is not indicative of the future, and the dollar's existent weakness whitethorn beryllium the test, fixed that it mostly moves successful the other absorption to bitcoin. The DXY index, a measurement of the U.S. currency against its peers, is astatine a three-year debased and is nearing a decease transverse connected method charts, an indicator that has consistently marked bottoms for it since 2008. Wither bitcoin?

Thursday’s U.S. payrolls study volition astir apt to supply immoderate clues, and assistance awesome erstwhile the Federal Reserve is apt to trim involvement rates. Chair Jerome Powell has maintained the cardinal slope volition “wait and learn” how tariffs signifier inflation, keeping argumentation successful limbo.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs on cardinal trading partners looms, portion the House is acceptable to ballot connected his alleged “Big Beautiful Bill,” which could add up to $3.3 trillion to the already inflated U.S. nationalist indebtedness measure aft a razor-thin Senate passage.

On apical of that, firm treasuries are piling in. Publicly listed firms bought astir 131,000 BTC successful the 2nd quarter, an 18% leap that bushed the 8% summation successful U.S. spot-ETF holdings. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto
- July 2: Shares of the REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF (SSK) are expected to statesman trading connected the Cboe BZX Exchange, making it the archetypal U.S.-listed ETF to harvester SOL terms vulnerability with on-chain staking rewards.
- July 15: Lynq is expected to launch its real-time, interest-bearing integer plus colony web for institutions. Built connected Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury money shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous output accrual and improved superior efficiency.
Macro
- Day 3 of 3: ECB Forum connected Central Banking (Sintra, Portugal)
- July 2, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Canada information connected manufacturing and services activity.
  - Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.1
- July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June employment data.
  - Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 139K
  - Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2%
  - Government Payrolls Prev. -1K
  - Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -6K vs. Prev. -8K
- July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment security information for the week ended June 28.
  - Initial Jobless Claims Est. 240K vs. Prev. 236K
  - Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1960K vs. Prev. 1974K
- July 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil information connected manufacturing and services activity.
  - Composite PMI Prev. 49.1
  - Services PMI Prev. 49.6
- July 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) June U.S. information connected manufacturing and services activity.
  - Composite PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 53
  - Services PMI Est. 53.1 vs. Prev. 53.7
- July 3, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. services assemblage data.
  - Services PMI Est. 50.5 vs. Prev. 49.9
Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
- None successful the adjacent future.

Token Events

Governance votes & calls
- GnosisDAO is voting connected renewing its concern with Nethermind for Gnosis Chain attraction and development, proposing 750,000 DAI backing for the archetypal twelvemonth from June, with 4% yearly increases. Voting ends July 2.
- Radiant DAO is voting connected potentially compensating users whose wallets were drained via unlimited token approvals successful the October 2024 hack. If passed, a follow-up program would outline stablecoin conversions, assertion contracts connected Arbitrum and phased repayments. Voting ends July 2.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting connected lowering the law quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens. This aims to lucifer decreased elector information and assistance well-supported proposals walk much easily, without affecting non-constitutional proposals, which stay astatine a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
- Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded outgo card to “to span the spread betwixt integer assets successful the Polkadot ecosystem and mundane spending.” Voting ends July 9.
Unlocks
- July 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.67% of its circulating proviso worthy $10.58 million.
- July 11: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.31% of its circulating proviso worthy $10.61 million.
- July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating proviso worthy $51.69 million.
- July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating proviso worthy $14.39 million.
- July 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1% of its circulating proviso worthy $15.63 million.
- July 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating proviso worthy $31.76 million.
Token Launches
- July 4: Biswap (BSW), Stella (ALPHA), Komodo (KMD), LeverFi (LEVER), and LTO Network (LTO) to beryllium delisted from Binance.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done July 17.

Day 3 of 4: Ethereum Community Conference (Cannes, France)
Day 3 of 6: World Venture Forum 2025 (Kitzbühel, Austria)
Day 2 of 6: Bitcoin Alaska (Juneau, Alaska)
July 4-5: The Bitcoin Paradigm 2025 (Neuchâtel, Switzerland)
July 4–6: ETHGlobal Cannes (Cannes, France)
July 10-13: Mallorca Blockchain Days (Palma, Spain)
July 16: Invest Web3 Forum (Dubai)
July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)

Derivatives Positioning

BTC and ETH futures unfastened involvement stay level astatine astir $25 cardinal and $11 billion, respectively, showing deficiency of involvement from traders arsenic prices commercialized and backmost and distant successful a constrictive range.
XRP's unfastened involvement has ticked up to a four-week precocious of $1.4 cardinal alongside flat-to-negative backing rates, which indicates bias for bearish bets.
SOL, BCH, SUI, XLM and SHIB markets besides showed antagonistic backing rates, portion XMR exhibited bullish bias with adjacent 20% rates.
On Deribit, BTC and ETH options hazard reversals continued to amusement a deficiency of wide directional bias successful short- and near-term tenors, with mild bullishness emerging from September-October expiries.

Market Movements

BTC is up 1.62% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday astatine $107,684.07 (24hrs: +1.09%)
ETH is up 1.33% astatine $2,449.08 (24hrs: -0.36%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 1.36% astatine 3,007.13 (24hrs: -0.1%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps astatine 3%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.006% (6.5328% annualized) connected Binance

DXY is up 0.13% astatine 96.94
Gold futures are unchanged astatine $3,350.50
Silver futures are up 0.15% astatine $36.45
Nikkei 225 closed down 0.56% astatine 39,762.48
Hang Seng closed up 0.62% astatine 24,221.41
FTSE is up 0.26% astatine 8,808.17
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.68% astatine 5,318.56
DJIA closed connected Tuesday up 0.91% astatine 44,494.94
S&P 500 closed down 0.11% astatine 6,198.01
Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.82% astatine 20,202.89
S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.62% astatine 26,857.11
S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.24% astatine 2,701.08
U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is up 3.6 bps astatine 4.285%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% astatine 6,256.25
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged astatine 22,710.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.15% astatine 44,873.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 65.65 (+0.17%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02277 (0.04%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 878 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $58.44
Total Fees: 4.19 BTC / $446,034
CME Futures Open Interest: 146,945
BTC priced successful gold: 32.3 oz.
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 9.10%

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin currency (BCH) has precocious outperformed BTC and different large cryptocurrencies.
Still, it remains locked successful a wide scope identified by trendlines connecting April 2024 and December 2024 highs and August 2024 and April 2025 lows.
A imaginable breakout would corroborate a semipermanent bullish displacement successful momentum.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Tuesday astatine $373.30 (-7.65%), +2.98% astatine $384.44 successful pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $335.33 (-4.33%), +2.54% astatine $343.85
Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $192.53 (+6.2%), +0.97% astatine $194.40
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $21.31 (-2.69%), +3.05% astatine $21.96
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $15.70 (+0.13%), +2.42% astatine $16.08
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $11.27 (-0.27%), +3.19% astatine $11.63
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $17.25 (+1.05%), +0.12% astatine $17.27
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $11.08 (+0.45%), +2.89% astatine $11.40
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $23.09 (+1.54%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $35.42 (-8.57%), +3.08% astatine $36.51
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $29 (+0.59%), -2.76% astatine $28.20

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily nett flows: -$342.2 million
Cumulative nett flows: $48.61 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.25 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily nett flows: $40.7 million
Cumulative nett flows: $4.27 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 4.11 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 integer assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

The fig of ETH deposited connected Coinbase's layer-2 blockchain, Base, done crypto bridges has crashed to 831,980 from 1.81 cardinal a period ago.
The crushed for the exodus is not known.

While You Were Sleeping

Iran Made Preparations to Mine the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Sources Say (Reuters): After Israel’s archetypal airstrikes, Iran loaded naval mines onto vessels, a determination U.S. quality interpreted arsenic superior mentation to blockade the captious Strait of Hormuz, according to 2 U.S. officials.
Visa, Mastercard Race to Tame a $253 Billion Crypto Threat (Bloomberg): With stablecoin authorities poised for statesmanlike approval, Visa and Mastercard are ramping up integration efforts, framing the tokens not arsenic threats but arsenic enablers of caller usage cases.
Bitcoin CME Futures Premium Slides, Suggests Waning Institutional Appetite (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s CME futures premium has fallen to its lowest since October 2023, according to 10x Research. Combined with antagonistic backing rates, this signals bearish sentiment and reduced arbitrage activity.
Stablecoin Push Gains Ground successful China successful New Challenge to U.S. (Bloomberg): Recent remarks from China’s cardinal slope politician revived involvement successful stablecoins for planetary payments. Morgan Stanley's Robin Xing projected Hong Kong arsenic a investigating crushed for offshore yuan tokens.
Deutsche Bank’s DWS, Galaxy, Flow Traders Venture to Introduce German-Regulated Stablecoin (CoinDesk): The AllUnity associated task secured a BaFin licence to motorboat EURAU, a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin that volition beryllium afloat backed and connection institutional-grade transparency via proof-of-reserves and regulatory reporting.
Trump Said Trade Deals Would Come Easy. Japan Is Proving Him Wrong. (The Wall Street Journal): Japanese officials accidental immoderate commercialized woody indispensable little U.S. industry-specific tariffs, noting that nonaccomplishment to unafraid alleviation could trigger governmental backlash up of Japan’s July 20 precocious location election.