4 months ago
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin held supra $100,000, with VET, ENA, LINK and LDO posting notable gains a time aft President Donald Trump bypassed mentioning crypto oregon a strategical bitcoin reserve successful his inauguration speech.
Signals from the bitcoin options marketplace bespeak heightened expectations for short-term terms turbulence alongside signs of increasing hazard aversion among traders since Trump's swearing in, according to Griffin Ardern, caput of options trading and probe astatine crypto fiscal level BloFin.
That could beryllium owed to respective reasons, including MicroStrategy's impending shareholder vote contiguous connected expanding its authorized shares to enactment its bitcoin buying strategy. In addition, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to summation rates connected Friday, which whitethorn fortify the yen. The precocious July BOJ complaint hike torched the currency's rally, destabilizing hazard assets, including cryptocurrencies.
There's besides uncertainty stemming from Trump's plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% connected Canada and Mexico and the looming indebtedness ceiling although, historically, the second has not had a important bearish interaction connected hazard assets.
"Markets received a stark reminder of beingness nether President Trump, with much volatility-inducing rhetoric," QCP Capital said,.
Still, observers stay optimistic.
“Despite a mostly disappointing archetypal time for cryptocurrencies nether the caller administration, Bitcoin managed to stay firmly supra $101K, sidestepping the feared ‘sell-the-news’ effect,” Valentin Fournier, an expert astatine BRN, noted. Fournier added that portion regulatory advancement and adjustments to nationalist reserves whitethorn instrumentality time, conditions are expected to amended successful the coming weeks.
The debut of the TRUMP memecoin implicit the play marked "a cardinal displacement successful the American integer plus landscape, yet attracting caller buyers, peculiarly into BTC and SOL," according to Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Trading.
"This improvement tin beryllium seen arsenic a dual narrative: a important worth instauration successful TRUMP, initially driven by intra-market rotation, which aboriginal sparked caller superior inflows arsenic cardinal investors recognized the broader affirmative catalysts for integer assets," Benayoun said. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto
Jan. 21: MicroStrategy (MSTR) shareholders ballot connected expanding the authorized stock superior to assistance money bitcoin purchases.
Jan. 23: First deadline for SEC determination connected NYSE Arca's proposal to database and commercialized shares of Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL), a closed-end trust, arsenic an ETF.
Jan. 25: First deadline for SEC decisions connected proposals for 4 spot solana ETFs: Bitwise Solana ETF, Canary Solana ETF, 21Shares Core Solana ETF and VanEck Solana Trust, which are each sponsored by Cboe BZX Exchange.
Jan. 29: Ice Open Network (ION) mainnet launch.
Feb. 4: MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) reports Q4 2024 earnings.
Feb. 4: Pepecoin (PEPE) halving. At artifact 400,000, the reward volition driblet to 31,250 pepecoin.
Feb. 5, 3:00 p.m.: Boba Network's Holocene hard fork web upgrade for its Ethereum-based L2 mainnet.
Feb. 12: Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) reports Q4 2024 earnings.
Feb. 15: Qtum (QTUM) hard fork web upgrade is scheduled to instrumentality spot astatine artifact 4,590,000.
Feb. 20: Coinbase Global (COIN) reports Q4 2024 earnings.
Macro
Jan. 21, 8:00 a.m.: The U.S. Treasury volition commencement taking "extraordinary measures" to halt the authorities from breaching the $36.1 trillion debt limit.
Jan. 21, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases December's Consumer Price Index.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. -0.1%.
Core Inflation Report YoY Prev. 1.6%.
Inflation Rate MoM Est. -0.7% vs. Prev. 0%.
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 1.7% vs. Prev. 1.9%.
Jan. 22, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases December’s Industrial Product Price Index.
PPI MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 0.6%.
PPI YoY Prev. 2.2%.
Jan. 22, 10:00 a.m.: The Conference Board releases December's Leading Economic Index (LEI) report for the U.S.
MoM Est. -0.1% vs. Prev. 0.3%.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
ApeChain is voting connected a revamped governance process for 75% of the on-chain treasury to beryllium directed to the DAO treasury declaration and the remaining 25% to the Ape Foundation for administrative and enactment purposes. Voting began Jan. 17 and volition past for 13 days.
CoW DAO is discussing the imaginable allocation of 80 cardinal COW to empower the halfway treasury squad for further liquidity provisioning, economical opportunities, and the improvement of the DAO’s merchandise roadmap from 2025 to 2028.
Jan. 22: Mantle (MNT) volition big a livestream with updates connected its 2025 roadmap. astatine 8 a.m.
Unlocks
Jan. 21: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.6% of circulating proviso worthy $76 million.
Jan. 31: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 41.5% of circulating proviso worthy $626 million.
Token Launches
Jan. 21: Bybit is listing Solayer (LAYER).
Jan. 22: Jambo (J) is listing connected OKX, Bitfinex and Bybit.
Conferences:
Day 9 of 12: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)
Day 2 of 5: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)
Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025
Jan. 24-25: Adopting Bitcoin (Cape Town, South Africa)
Jan. 25-26: Catstanbul 2025 (Istanbul). The archetypal assemblage league for Jupiter, a decentralized speech (DEX) aggregator built connected Solana.
Jan. 30, 12:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.: International DeFi Day 2025 (online)
Jan 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)
Jan. 30 to Feb. 4: The Satoshi Roundtable (Dubai)
Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)
Feb. 5-6: The 14th Global Blockchain Congress (Dubai)
Feb. 7: Solana APEX (Mexico City)
Feb. 13-14: The 4th Edition of NFT Paris.
Feb. 18-20: Consensus Hong Kong
Feb. 23 to March 2: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver, Colorado)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Donald and Melania Trump’s authoritative memecoins person inspired wannabe token creators to contented tokens based connected different household members. One specified token themed aft lad Barron Trump conscionable rug pulled for millions of dollars.
A spoof X relationship impersonating Barron promoted a BARRON token, which rapidly gained traction reaching a highest marketplace headdress of $87 million.
Initially, a important magnitude of liquidity was added to marque the token look morganatic and promote trading. However, it seems the token was designed to deceive from the start. Once the token reached a precocious bargain volume, each liquidity was removed from the token pools causing the terms to crash.
On-chain watchers estimated astatine slightest $1 cardinal worthy of Solana’s SOL tokens were extracted successful the rug pull, based connected archetypal buying and last selling transactions.
Even immoderate manufacture observers were instrumentality in.
Derivatives Positioning
Open involvement successful TRUMP perpetual futures has accrued 8%, suggesting the terms driblet is astatine slightest partially led by caller shorts. Opposite is the lawsuit for AAVE arsenic prices person risen alongside an uptick successful unfastened interest.
Other than AAVE, astir large coins, including BTC and ETH, person seen antagonistic unfastened interest-adjusted CVD, a motion of nett selling pressure.
BTC and ETH calls stay pricier than puts, but the telephone bias is weaker than a time ago.
Top artifact trades for the time see BTC bull telephone spreads and immoderate outright longs successful ETH calls, according to information root Amberdata, Deribit and Paradigm.
Market Movements
BTC is down 0.3% from 4 p.m. ET Monday astatine $103,280.72 (24hrs: -4.66%)
ETH is down 0.43% astatine $3,307.05 (24hrs: -1.97%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 1.27% astatine 3,960.57 (24hrs: -5.14%)
Ether staking output is up 27 bps astatine 3.58%
BTC backing complaint is astatine -0.0026% (-2.9% annualized) connected OKX
DXY is down 0.56% astatine 108.74
Gold is up 0.36% astatine $2,718.39/oz
Silver is unchanged astatine $30.48/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +0.32% to 39,027.98
Hang Seng closed +0.91% to 20,106.55
FTSE is unchanged astatine 8,521.58
Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged astatine 5,160.68
DJIA closed connected Friday +0.78% to 43,487.83
S&P 500 closed +1% to 5,996.66
Nasdaq closed +1.51% to 19,630.20
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed connected Monday +0.41% to 25,171.58
S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.23% to 2,258.33
U.S. 10-year Treasury is down 4 bps astatine 4.59%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.44% astatine 6,060.00
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.48% astatine 21,698.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.33% astatine 43,841.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 58.70
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03193
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 786 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $60.7
Total Fees: 12.37 BTC/ $1.3M
CME Futures Open Interest: 188,825 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 37.8 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 10.74%
Technical Analysis
BTC remains successful bullish territory supra the Ichimoku cloud contempt Trump failing to notation crypto oregon strategical BTC reserve Monday.
The resilience whitethorn entice much buyers to the market, perchance starring to grounds highs.
Crypto Equities
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed connected Monday astatine C$31.15 (+4.04%).
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed connected Friday astatine $396.50 (+8.04%), down 2.22% astatine $387.70 successful pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $295.48 (+4.92%), down 0.65% astatine $293.55 successful pre-market.
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $19.91 (+8.8%), down 0.5% astatine $19.81 successful pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $13.38 (0.67%), down 0.3% astatine $13.35 successful pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $15 (+2.53%), up 0.47% astatine $15.07 successful pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $11.87 (+6.17%), up 0.51% astatine $11.93 successful pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $25.37 (+3.13%).
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $64.68 (+11.06%), down 1.52% astatine $63.70 successful pre-market.
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $38.51 (+1.69%), up 8.47% astatine $41.77 successful pre-market.
ETF Flows
U.S. exchanges were closed connected Jan. 20 successful observance of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
The ETF information beneath is from Jan. 17 and remains unchanged.
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett flow: $1072.8 million
Cumulative nett flows: $38.18 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett flow: $23.9 million
Cumulative nett flows: $2.66 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.67 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The proviso of stablecoins connected the Solana blockchain has astir doubled since October.
Most of that is successful USDC, the world's second-largest dollar-pegged stablecoin.
While You Were Sleeping
U.S. to Hit Debt Ceiling connected Tuesday. Will Bitcoin Soar oregon Suffer? (CoinDesk): The U.S. Treasury begins bonzer measures to debar breaching the $36.1 trillion indebtedness limit. Historically, drawdowns successful the Treasury General Account (TGA), the government’s currency reserve, person coincided with bitcoin terms increases.
TRUMP, MELANIA Tokens Plunge 50% arsenic Trump Inauguration Fails to Buoy Bitcoin (CoinDesk): Memecoins TRUMP and MELANIA fell sharply post-inauguration contempt trading volumes exceeding galore large tokens. QCP Capital speculates that TRUMP’s motorboat connected Solana highlights the chain, perchance aiding U.S. SOL ETF prospects.
World Liberty Financial Buys $112.8 Million successful Crypto connected Trump’s First Day successful Office (The Block): On Monday, World Liberty Financial, a Trump-linked crypto project, commemorated his inauguration by spending a full of $112.8M connected ETH, wBTC, AAVE, LINK, TRX and ENA.
Trump’s Plans for Canada, Mexico Tariffs Send Dollar Higher (The Wall Street Journal): The U.S. dollar roseate against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso aft Trump’s projected tariffs. Asian markets showed mixed movements, portion lipid prices fell arsenic Trump pledged expanded U.S. production.
ECB’s Kazimir Sees Three to Four More Cuts Starting Next Week (Bloomberg): Peter Kazimir, an ECB Governing Council member, expects a complaint chopped adjacent week and perchance 3 more. He warns of risks from U.S. commercialized policies and inflationary pressures from import prices.
China Stocks, Yuan Cautiously Firm After Trump Delays Tariffs (Reuters): Chinese stocks and the yuan roseate cautiously aft Trump avoided imposing contiguous tariffs, offering short-term relief. China is focusing connected technological innovation and stimulating user spending to boost growth.
In the Ether
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