Bullish Bitcoin bets unraveled below $110K: Will October revive risk-on sentiment?

2 hours ago

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin suffers its steepest play diminution since March, slipping nether $110,000.
Over $15 cardinal successful leveraged positions were flushed out, signaling a reset successful hazard appetite.
October seasonality has historically delivered beardown Bitcoin gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) is enduring its sharpest play diminution since March 2025, with prices dropping implicit 5% and sliding beneath the $110,000 mark. The correction has deed short-term traders hard, arsenic more than 60,000 BTC were sent to exchanges astatine a nonaccomplishment this week.

This marked the archetypal clip successful 5 months that Bitcoin fell nether the short-term holder (STH) outgo ground of $109,700, a level that could awesome accent among speculative marketplace participants.

At the aforesaid time, the drawdown has exposed the standard of risk-on positioning crossed the crypto market. Crypto expert Maartunn noted that $11.8 cardinal successful leveraged altcoin bets and $3.2 cardinal successful speculative Bitcoin positions person been flushed out, pointing to a important reset successful hazard appetite. The expert argued that this cleanup could assistance trim marketplace fragility, paving the mode for a much balanced recovery.

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Market sentiment has besides shifted sharply. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that the Advanced Sentiment Index plunged from 86% (extremely bullish) to conscionable 15% (bearish) successful 2 weeks. While zones beneath 20% often trigger method bounces, Adler Jr. stressed that sustained betterment volition necessitate sentiment to ascent backmost supra 40–45% with the 30-day moving mean trending higher.

Long-term holders (LTH) appeared unchangeable arsenic organisation remained subdued astatine $76.7 cardinal per week. Meanwhile, lone 1.5% of STH are astatine a loss, with astir inactive successful profit, limiting the hazard of forced liquidations.

However, Adler Jr. cautioned that capitulation risks would emergence if STH losses exceeded 10% and marketplace worth dipped beneath the realized value.

October seasonality to the rescue?

While the short-term representation looked fragile, Bitcoin’s existent way is not acold disconnected from humanities seasonality. September typically delivers antagonistic returns, averaging −3.43%, and BTC has truthful acold managed to stay somewhat affirmative astatine +0.68%.

Bitcoin web economist Timothy Peterson suggested the latest pullback fits neatly into past patterns. “This is the September capitulation,” Peterson said, “On my regular tracking sheet, Sept. 25 is the lowest median value. Bitcoin finishes the adjacent 5 days higher 80% of the time, with an mean summation of 1.7%.”

Peterson besides highlighted that 60% of Bitcoin’s yearly show occurs aft Oct. 3, with a precocious probability of gains extending into June. The economist adjacent projected a 50% accidental of Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by mid-2026, citing seasonality-driven bull phases betwixt October and June.

History besides lends value to optimism. Since 2019, Bitcoin has closed October successful the greenish each year, averaging returns of 21.89%. Even during the carnivore marketplace of 2022, BTC posted a 5.53% summation that month. If the signifier holds, the existent question of symptom whitethorn soon springiness mode to renewed upside arsenic the marketplace enters its astir seasonally bullish stretch.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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