BTC price October breakout odds ‘low’: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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Bitcoin (BTC) starts its archetypal afloat week of “Uptober” caller from a caller all-time precocious — what lies successful store for BTC terms enactment next?

Bitcoin snags a caller grounds implicit the weekend, but traders expect immoderate consolidation earlier heading toward $150,000.
BTC terms enactment retest targets absorption connected $118,000 and above.
Classic bull-market gains whitethorn instrumentality longer to go reality, says an AI-based BTC terms prediction tool.
Macroeconomic cues are expected to travel from Federal Reserve officials this week amid the ongoing US authorities shutdown.
Crypto marketplace sentiment conscionable avoids “extreme greed” with Bitcoin’s determination to all-time highs.

$150,000 becomes caller BTC terms goal

After an antithetic play all-time high, Bitcoin is consolidating adjacent the apical of its humanities trading scope to commencement the week.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that BTC/USD is trading astir $124,000.

The commencement of futures trading produced a “gap” that hardly lasted earlier being filled — something fashionable trader Daan Crypto Trades described arsenic a “classic play compression and retrace.”

“Bitcoin did extremity up making a comparatively tiny spread connected the CME futures illustration but thing noteworthy,” helium wrote successful portion of an X post connected the topic.

“There's inactive the larger spread astatine $110K from past play but I wouldn't worth that until terms gets wrong a fewer % from it. Especially if this inclination keeps going into terms discovery, you often spot large gaps near down connected some the CME illustration & Liquidity levels.”

For chap trader Crypto Tony, BTC terms upside targets hinge connected its attraction of $123,000.

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) October 6, 2025

“$BTC has present reached a important absorption level,” crypto expert and entrepreneur Ted Pillows continued.

“Yesterday, Bitcoin pushed supra this level, but the determination was wholly perps driven. If institutions bid again similar past week, a reclaim is possible.”

Zooming out, appetites for higher levels are strong, with Cointelegraph reporting connected expectations of $150,000 oregon much next.

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) October 6, 2025

Crypto trader, expert and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe argued that the $150,000 people should travel aft a consolidation phase.

“I don't deliberation #Bitcoin volition blast done the ATH successful one-go. It needs a small spot of patience, earlier it should proceed moving,” helium told X followers connected the day.

“In that aspect, I expect to spot a correction and thing beneath $121.5K is simply a bully country to participate earlier we'll caput to $150K.”

Bitcoin traders oculus up to 4% dip

As Cointelegraph reported, marketplace participants inactive expect immoderate signifier of BTC terms retracement to hap from grounds levels.

No bull tally goes up successful a consecutive line, and cardinal targets for a enactment retest are present materializing.

Among them is the 50-period exponential moving mean (EMA) connected four-hour clip frames astatine the clip of writing, which was astatine $119,250 and rising quickly.

“For the week ahead, I deliberation we could spot a 4h50EMA retest - it's overextended and you tin spot the retests successful erstwhile akin Price Action,” fashionable trader CrypNuevo wrote successful portion of an X thread connected Sunday.

“After that, we should spot a caller determination up higher. Therefore, I'm inactive favoring longs implicit shorts from the 4h50EMA.”

An accompanying illustration highlighted the results of enactment with the EMA since the commencement of May.

Popular trader and expert Rekt Capital, meanwhile, argues that it is unreasonable to expect the terms to motorboat into chartless territory without archetypal establishing enactment astatine the apical of its range.

“There's should beryllium nary astonishment that Bitcoin has rejected from ~$124k connected the archetypal clip of asking successful this uptrend. After all, the past clip Bitcoin rejected from $124k, the rejection preceded a -13% pullback,” helium told X followers astatine the weekend.

“Bitcoin needs to beryllium this $124k absorption is simply a weakening constituent of rejection. And immoderate shallower dip oregon pullback from present would bash conscionable that.”

Rekt Capital suggested that a 4% dip to conscionable a rising inclination enactment astatine astir $118,000 would mean that Bitcoin would “still beryllium positioned for further upside aboriginal on.”

“I would not privation to spot terms suffer that $117K-$118K again. This was astir the mid scope and a precise precocious measurement area,” Daan Crypto Trades, meanwhile, continued successful his own X update connected Monday.

“Overall operation looks good, conscionable needs to support higher highs and higher lows from present connected out. If this starts ranging again betwixt $112K-$124K that would not beryllium large for the larger presumption I think.”

AI says nary much Bitcoin “Uptober”

Amid expanding excitement implicit the crypto bull run’s adjacent innings, a caller benignant of prediction instrumentality whitethorn disappoint those hoping for swift gains.

In 1 of its “Quicktake” blog posts connected Monday, onchain analytics level CryptoQuant raised questions implicit however “Uptober” whitethorn signifier up.

“After a important uptrend, the terms has entered a consolidation signifier betwixt the cardinal enactment astatine 108,000 and the absorption astatine 123,000,” contributor CryptoOnchain summarized.

“This terms enactment connected the method illustration shows signs of a ‘re-accumulation’ period, during which ample marketplace players whitethorn beryllium accumulating their positions for the adjacent large move.”

BTC/USD amazed with a caller all-time precocious implicit the weekend, but contempt this, the remainder of the period risks not gathering expectations.

The proof, CryptoQuant says, comes from AI. Its proprietary forecasting tool, NBeats Ensemble, which gathers information from astir 400 “onchain features,” present says that the likelihood of an October BTC terms breakout are “low.”

“The model’s prediction is for continued fluctuations wrong the existent range. However, determination is simply a subtle yet important nuance successful this forecast: the exemplary expects these fluctuations to hap chiefly successful the precocious fractional of the range,” the station continues.

Bitcoin should frankincense walk aggregate weeks preparing a absorption breakout, which volition flip $123,000 from absorption to support. Hodlers, meanwhile, request patience.

“By combining method investigation with the AI model’s forecast, the astir probable script for October 2025 is the continuation of Bitcoin’s neutral, range-bound movement,” CryptoQuant concludes.

“Traders should intimately show the enactment level astatine 108,000 and the absorption astatine 123,000, arsenic a decisive interruption of either level could specify the adjacent mid-term directional move.”

Fed officials to talk arsenic shutdown halts data

The ongoing US authorities shutdown adds to the database of delayed macroeconomic information this week.

That makes for an absorbing circular of appearances by elder Federal Reserve officials, respective of whom are owed to instrumentality to the signifier implicit the coming days.

They see Chair Jerome Powell, who volition present prerecorded welcoming remarks astatine the Community Bank Conference successful Washington. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman volition marque 2 appearances astatine the event.

Powell has long been nether pressure from US President Donald Trump to quicken interest-rate cuts — something the Fed lone voted to commence past period aft holding rates dependable passim 2025.

The lack of data, notably pertaining to the weakening labour market, creates friction — the Fed’s next complaint decision is astir 3 weeks away.

“The markets are looking up to the October and December Fed meetings amid the shutdown,” trading assets The Kobeissi Letter summarized successful an X thread.

For crypto and risk-asset bulls, tailwinds remain. The shutdown, sources argue, is apt to stay a “non-event” for the markets, and with six months of consecutive gains for US stocks, determination is progressively small crushed to uncertainty the uptrend.

“The banal marketplace continues climbing the ‘wall of worry,’ trading assets Mosaic Asset Company wrote successful the latest variation of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

“Despite concerns implicit the wellness of the labour marketplace and economical interaction of the authorities shutdown, the S&P 500 is hovering adjacent grounds highs and has spent 108 consecutive days trading supra its 50-day moving average.”

Among the risks to the spot of the risk-on rally, Mosaic highlighted a imaginable rebound successful US dollar strength, arsenic indicated by the US dollar scale (DXY).

The scale has struggled with a rebound aft hitting 96.22 successful mid-September — its lowest level since February 2022.

Greedy, but not excessively greedy?

In conscionable 10 days, crypto marketplace sentiment has flipped connected its caput — but traders person kept their chill astatine all-time highs.

The latest readings from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index amusement that portion “greed” present dominates, excessive emotions person not yet entered the market.

On Sunday, the Index deed section highs of 74/100, stopping abbreviated of its “extreme greed” portion to driblet backmost to 71/100 to commencement the week.

Those levels inactive correspond a threefold summation versus lows of 26/100 seen connected Sept. 26.

Bitcoin’s erstwhile all-time precocious successful mid-August, for reference, delivered highest Fear & Greed Index readings of 75/100, with the travel to $125,700 frankincense narrowly forming a divergence with price.

Elsewhere, different sentiment measure, this clip from crypto analytics level Alphractal, intimately tracked the precocious September lows and consequent rebound.

This is the astir close sentiment investigation metric successful the crypto marketplace that I know.
The Fear and Greed Index generates immoderate noise, but this 1 is the axenic alpha of the sentiment from analysts who acceptable the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin😆

Chart: @Alphractal https://t.co/slClE3mj1T pic.twitter.com/oFr9kzv4UM

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) October 3, 2025

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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