BTC, Gold Jump as Shutdown Delays Data, Fuels Rate-Cut Bets: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) whitethorn beryllium entering a decisive signifier arsenic macro and crypto-specific forces converge.

With the U.S. authorities shutdown and accepted marketplace indicators similar employment reports delayed, traders are leaning into alternate assets, particularly bitcoin and gold. BTC climbed to $120,000 aft rallying 9% this week, portion golden roseate 2.9% to interaction $3,900.

The shutdown has furloughed implicit 90% of SEC unit and near the CFTC with a skeleton crew. Reacting to the shutdown markets rallied, arsenic investors spot the Federal Reserve lowering involvement rates by 25 bps aboriginal this period arsenic a near certainty implicit an unexpected driblet successful U.S. backstage payrolls and a hold successful different cardinal economical data.

“Traders person lacked contiguous catalysts, evidenced by subdued committedness pursuing the FOMC meeting, adjacent arsenic golden and equities person posted beardown gains. However, the broader inclination remains higher arsenic we determination into a rate-cutting cycle,” Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading astatine Wintermute, told CoinDesk.

Lower involvement rates marque hazard assets similar cryptocurrencies much attractive, and that’s coming successful a period wherever sentiment is precocious fixed humanities performance.

"October has historically been a bullish period for Bitcoin, and aboriginal signs suggest this twelvemonth whitethorn beryllium nary exception." said Gadi Chait of Xapo Bank, successful an emailed statement. "Far from being a speculative outlier, bitcoin continues to amusement its quality to defy the likelihood and asseverate itself arsenic a integer plus with staying power.”

On-chain information backs that up. Apparent bitcoin request has grown by astir 62,000 BTC per period since July, according to CryptoQuant, driven mostly by ETFs and whales. For context, ETF holdings surged by 71% successful fourth-quarter 2024.

On apical of that, the crypto-native marketplace has kept connected growing.

“Over the past month, DeFi’s stock of trading enactment has been climbing significantly, expanding some the marketplace and our opportunity,” dYdX Labs President Eddie Zhang told CoinDesk.

“A large operator of this displacement is the renewed vigor and information we’re seeing retired of Asia. We judge DeFi is opening to fulfill its long-standing promise, and the gait of marketplace adoption is accelerating successful response."

Looking ahead, crypto markets are anticipating different imaginable catalysts: ETF decisions for respective altcoins including solana and XRP that could beryllium delayed implicit the shutdown, and Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, which is slowly moving closer. Stay alert!

What to Watch

For a much broad database of events this week, spot CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead.

• Crypto
  • Oct. 3: SOL treasury steadfast Brera Holdings begins trading nether new ticker SLMT connected Nasdaq, reflecting its impending sanction alteration to Solmate.
• Macro
  • Oct. 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. PMI. Composite (Prev. 48.3), Services (Prev. 49.3).
  • Oct. 3, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. PMI. Composite (Prev. 48.4), Services (Prev. 48.6).
  • Oct. 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. Sept. PMI (final). Composite Est. 53.6, Services Est. 53.9.
  • Oct. 3, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Services PMI Est. 51.7.
  • Oct. 3, 1:40 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson delivers a code connected "U.S. Economic Outlook and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework" successful Philadelphia.
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a much broad database of events this week, spot CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is presently holding a non-binding "temperature check" ballot connected a connection to deprecate Compound V2. Voting ends Oct. 6.
• Unlocks
  • Oct. 3: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.26% of its circulating proviso worthy $17.56 million.
• Token Launches
  • Oct. 3: EVAA Protocol (EVAA) to beryllium listed connected Binance Alpha, MEXC and others.

Conferences

For a much broad database of events this week, spot CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead.

• Day 2 of 3: Lightning Plus Plus Berlin
• Oct. 3: DePIN Day Singapore 2025

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• The crypto marketplace roseate connected Friday with tokens including ETH, SOL and XRP each rising much than 2%, portion smaller altcoins similar ETHFI and CAKE climbed arsenic overmuch arsenic 25%.
• The comparative spot comes arsenic bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, deed $120,000 connected Thursday arsenic it takes purpose astatine August's grounds precocious supra $124,000.
• Still, dissimilar erstwhile forays supra $120,000, this determination has been alternatively muted; with the terms remaining successful a choky scope arsenic opposed to a spike successful volatility.
• This bodes good for altcoins, which typically execute good erstwhile bitcoin consolidates arsenic it allows superior to rotate from bitcoin to much speculative bets.
• However, the upside displacement has not been benignant to a prime fewer tokens, notably MYX Finance (MYX), which was dealt a grueling 43% diminution owed to a rapid unwind of leverage.
• Plasma's XPL token, arsenic reported successful Thursday's Daybook, continues to stutter amid speculation astir whether marketplace makers are shorting connected behalf of the founding team, a assertion that XPL founders person denied.

Derivatives Positioning

• The BTC futures marketplace remains powerfully bullish, with unfastened involvement holding astatine all-time highs supra $32 billion. The three-month annualized ground is besides elevated, approaching 8%.
• A notable divergence exists, however, successful backing rates. Deribit's complaint is exceptionally precocious astatine 25%, portion different exchanges similar Bybit amusement much neutral funding, suggesting a imaginable attraction of assertive agelong positions successful circumstantial areas.
• The BTC options marketplace is showing a authorities of neutrality. The 24-hour put-call measurement is inactive somewhat call-dominated astatine 52.25%, but this is simply a alteration from erstwhile days, indicating a imaginable moderation of bullish conviction.
• Concurrently, the 1-week 25 delta skew is present fundamentally level astatine 0.33%, signaling a balanced implied volatility for some puts and calls.
• This operation of metrics suggests a marketplace that is settling into a much balanced and hesitant signifier aft a play of stronger bullish sentiment.
• Coinglass information shows $380 cardinal successful 24 hr liquidations, with a 35-65 divided betwixt longs and shorts. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $121,300 arsenic a halfway liquidation level to monitor, successful lawsuit of a terms rise.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.3% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday astatine $120,378.11 (24hrs: +1.44%)
• ETH is down 0.4% astatine $4,476.43 (24hrs: +2.05%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.55% astatine 4,297.29 (24hrs: +1.59%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged astatine 2.87%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0023% (2.5185% annualized) connected KuCon

• DXY is unchanged astatine 97.76
• Gold futures are up 0.39% astatine $3,883.00
• Silver futures are up 1.87% astatine $47.24
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.85% astatine 45,769.50
• Hang Seng closed down 0.54% astatine 27,140.92
• FTSE is up 0.63% astatine 9,486.91
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.16% astatine 5,654.70
• DJIA closed connected Thursday up 0.17% astatine 46,519.72
• S&P 500 closed up 0.06% astatine 6,715.35
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.39% astatine 22,844.05
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.18% astatine 30,160.59
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.42% astatine 2,893.79
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is down 0.2 bps astatine 4.088%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.27% astatine 6,785.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.28% astatine 25,180.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.28% astatine 46,937.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.79% (unchanged)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03722 (unchanged)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,059 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $50.69
• Total Fees: 4.14 BTC / $495,121
• CME Futures Open Interest: 141,485 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 31.2 oz
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 8.81%

Technical Analysis

• Ether has deviated backmost into the play scope aft tapping the 100-day exponential moving mean (EMA) connected the regular illustration and is present trading astatine the $4,500 level.
• While the terms is trading supra each cardinal EMAs connected the daily, it is presently wrong a bearish regular bid block, an country of involvement for a imaginable pullback.
• Bulls volition privation to spot a interruption supra this level followed by a palmy retest to people the scope highs and, eventually, the all-time highs.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed connected Thursday astatine $372.07 (+7.48%), +0.36% astatine $373.42
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed astatine $149.72 (+16.04%), -0.68% astatine $148.70
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $36.52 (+1.93%), +0.77% astatine $36.80
• Bullish (BLSH): closed astatine $67.91 (+11.68%), -0.6% astatine $67.50
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $18.79 (+0.97%), +0.85% astatine $18.95
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $19.25 (+1.69%), +0.73% astatine $19.39
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $18.1 (+0.72%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $15.14 (+3.77%), +1.52% astatine $15.37
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $46.49 (+3.15%), +0.56% astatine $46.75
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $30.86 (+9.01%), +0.42% astatine $30.99

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed astatine $352.33 (+4.11%), unchanged successful pre-market
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $31.36 (+1.06%), -0.19% astatine $31.30
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $18.09 (+4.15%), +1.05% astatine $18.28
• Upexi (UPXI): closed astatine $7.29 (+11.64%), +0.96% astatine $7.36
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed astatine $2.68 (+4.69%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flow: $627.2 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $59.03 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.32 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flow: $307.1 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $14.20 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 6.64 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin to $200K by End of 2025? This Cycle Indicator Points to Explosive Months Ahead (CoinDesk): Whale and spot ETF request reflector past fourth-quarter rallies, and CryptoQuant’s rhythm indicator suggests bitcoin staying supra $116,000 for respective weeks could wide the way toward $200,000.
• Multinationals Race Ahead arsenic Dollar Slump Divides U.S. Stock Market (Financial Times): Donald Trump’s commercialized policies, Fed complaint cuts and hedging flows person pushed the dollar down astir 10% this year, boosting planetary earners similar Meta portion squeezing home importers specified arsenic Target.
• Accumulation Trends Strengthen arsenic Bitcoin Breaks Through $120K (CoinDesk): Wallets holding 10–1,000 BTC person flipped from selling to buying for the archetypal clip since August, signaling stronger request arsenic retail besides begins edging backmost into accumulation.
• Nomura Unit Laser Targets Japan’s Booming Crypto Trading Market (Bloomberg): Switzerland-based Laser Digital Holdings, a Nomura subsidiary, is successful talks with Japan’s regulator to get a licence to connection crypto trading services for organization clients.