Bitcoin short term realized volatility drops to 16% after early April spike

Bitcoin’s volatility curve saw a crisp plaything successful April. Realized volatility measures the existent day-to-day variability successful Bitcoin’s terms implicit a acceptable model alternatively of the market’s expectations. It is the annualized modular deviation of regular logarithmic returns, truthful it shows however turbulent trading has been. This lets analysts benchmark enactment prices against recorded moves, flags authorities shifts earlier than terms trends, and helps justice whether implied premiums oregon leverage levels look stretched.

Bitcoin’s realized volatility from Jan. 1, 2022, to April 30 (Source: Checkonchain)

One-week realized volatility printed 94 % connected April 12, the highest speechmaking since Jan. 10, 2023. That spike coincided with a $3,124 intraday driblet to $82,747 and a adjacent astatine $85,270. Eight days later, the aforesaid gauge fell to 16 % arsenic the terms settled adjacent $85,000 aft a constrictive $1,479 range. The marketplace saw lone 1 faster play 50-point contraction since October 2022.

Activity picked up again connected April 23, arsenic Bitcoin gained $2,785 intraday and closed astatine $93,715, pushing one-week realized volatility backmost to 54%. Greeks.live order-book snapshots amusement Deribit unfastened involvement astatine the $95,000 telephone onslaught rising to 13,000 contracts from 3,920 earlier that day, an other $160 cardinal notional, and the largest one-day physique since spot ETFs launched successful January. The front-month put-call ratio slid to 0.41, confirming traders were chasing upside alternatively than hedging exposure.

Two-week realized volatility eased successful steps: 71% connected April 12, 59% connected April 20, 54% connected April 23, and 40% connected April 30. Meanwhile, one- and three-month realized held astatine 56%, portion the six-month realized deed 54%. The level medium-term illustration means day-to-day swings calm quickly, yet traders with longer horizons inactive terms mid-50% moves.

A 16% abbreviated limb against astir 55% one-month implied leaves dealers collecting astir 0.8 volatility points of theta per day. With realized this low, gamma hazard is constricted and marketplace makers tin hedge by selling spot into rallies. Upside usually pauses unless a caller catalyst forces them to rebalance, which happened concisely connected April 23 erstwhile ETF creations spiked.

Graph showing Bitcoin’s 1-week, 2-week, and 1-month realized volatility from Mar. 28 to Apr. 30, 2025 (Source: Checkonchain)

Price enactment successful the last week of April illustrates the transportation trade. From April 25 to April 30, Bitcoin’s intraday scope averaged astir $1,900, one-week realized stayed astatine 16%, and one-month implied settled astatine 55%. Binance backing averaged 0.0066% per eight-hour model versus 0.039% connected April 12. Liquidations fell to $78 cardinal connected April 30 from $485 cardinal connected April 12.

Six-month realized sitting astatine 54%, the aforesaid level arsenic Jan. 1, shows the marketplace inactive expects ample swings heading into the Federal Reserve’s summertime meetings and the US election. April, therefore, depicts a marketplace consenting to drift higher connected dependable ETF request but speedy to throttle enactment erstwhile momentum fades.

Volatility spikes travel successful abbreviated bursts tied to ample currency prints and slice faster than they did successful 2024. That signifier suits transportation strategies yet builds latent risk: the longer one-week volatility hovers adjacent 15%, the sharper the reset erstwhile the adjacent impulse hits.

The station Bitcoin abbreviated word realized volatility drops to 16% aft aboriginal April spike appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.