Bitcoin Shakes Off Powell Jitters: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto marketplace rapidly recovered from the precocious Wednesday swoon triggered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments.

Bitcoin (BTC) bounced to $118,500 from $116,000, with ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and different large altcoins pursuing suit. The CoinDesk 80 Index traded implicit 2.5% higher connected the day, outperforming the CoinDesk 20 Index, which suggests a stronger betterment successful smaller tokens specified arsenic toncoin (TON) and memecoins including shiba inu (SHIB).

Still, the marketplace wide stayed wrong caller terms ranges, searching for catalysts to interruption done resistance.

Referring to bitcoin, Alex Kuptsikevich, the main marketplace expert astatine FxPro, said: "The marketplace inactive needs drivers to tempest $120K. The U.S. White House study connected the improvement of integer assets did not incorporate immoderate details that could animate caller buyers, making the crypto marketplace travel the trends of macroeconomics and accepted finance."

The report, for illustration did not notation a strategical bitcoin reserve which, according to C.J. Burnett, main gross serviceman astatine Compass Mining, creates unnecessary uncertainty astatine a clip erstwhile clarity is needed. "Silence connected this beforehand risks ceding power to much assertive actors abroad," helium said.

In different news, analysts astatine Glassnode noted that bitcoin is displaying euphoria akin to that observed astatine erstwhile all-time highs, citing modular deviation studies based connected a metric called unrealized nett arsenic a percent of marketplace cap. A akin survey showed potential for an ether rally to $4,900.

The fig of ether locked successful the DeFi protocol Ethena has risen 27% to 2.23 cardinal ETH, taking the dollar worth of the assets locked to a grounds $8.6 billion, according information root DeFiLlama.

Invesco and Galaxy Digital filed a proposal with the SEC for the instauration of a spot solana exchange-traded fund. Early this week, the regulator approved in-kind redemptions for each BTC and ETH ETFs, unlocking large marketplace efficiencies.

Solana-based decentralized speech Jupiter unveiled Verify4, an upgrade that streamlines the token verification process with faster approvals and clearer guidelines, present including integrated scores, societal validation, and liquidity, on with an optional explicit 24-hour reappraisal for a 1,000 JUP burn.

In accepted markets, the dollar continued to fortify with the Dollar Index nearing 100 for the archetypal clip since May 29. Copper registered its biggest single-day driblet connected grounds aft President Donald Trump announced that a 50% tariff would not use to refined metallic but lone to semi-finished metallic merchandise imports. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 31, 12 p.m.: A unrecorded webinar featuring Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Bitzenship laminitis Aleesandro Palombo discussing bitcoin’s imaginable to go a planetary reserve currency amid dedollarization trends. Registration link.
  • Aug. 1: The Helium Network (HNT), present moving connected Solana, undergoes its halving event, cutting yearly caller token issuance to 7.5 cardinal HNT.
  • Aug. 1: Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance takes effect, introducing a licensing authorities to modulate stablecoin activities successful the city.
  • Aug. 1: New Bretton Woods Labs volition motorboat BTCD, which it says is the archetypal afloat bitcoin-backed stablecoin, connected the Elastos (ELA) mainnet, a decentralized blockchain secured by merged mining with bitcoin and overseen by the Elastos Foundation.
  • Aug. 15: Record day for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who conscionable pre-distribution requirements.
  • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives volition launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
• Macro
  • July 31, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases June unemployment complaint data.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 6% vs. Prev. 6.2%
  • July 31, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases June user income and expenditure data.
    • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.7%
    • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.1%
    • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.3%
    • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.4%
    • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev.-0.1%
  • July 31, 11 a.m.: Colombia's National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases June unemployment complaint data.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 9.1% vs. Prev. 9%
  • July 31, 2 p.m.: Colombia's cardinal bank, Banco de la República (BanRep), releases its monetary argumentation decision..
    • Policy Rate Est. 9% vs. Prev. 9.25%
  • Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs instrumentality effect connected imports from commercialized partners that failed to scope agreements by this date. For astir countries, the baseline tariff volition beryllium successful the 15%-20% range.
  • Aug. 1, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July employment data.
    • Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 147K
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.1%
    • Government Payrolls Prev. 73K
    • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -3K vs. Prev. -7K
  • Aug. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services information for Brazil.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 48.3
  • Aug. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services information for Canada.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 45.6
  • Aug. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) July manufacturing and services information for the U.S.
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 52.9
  • Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases July U.S. services assemblage data.
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 49
  • Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (final) July U.S. user sentiment data.
    • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 62 vs. Prev. 60.7
  • Aug. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services information for Mexico.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.3
  • Aug. 1 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases July user terms ostentation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.13%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 1.69%
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.39
  • July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.19
  • July 31: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, -$0.10
  • July 31: Sequans Communications (SQNS), pre-market
  • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 4: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market, -$0.22
  • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
  • Aug. 7: Coincheck (CNCK), post-market
  • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
  • Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
  • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR’s inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators indispensable support the connection for it to pass, and if truthful it could beryllium implemented by precocious Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1.
  • Venus DAO is voting connected a 12-month renewal with Chaos Labs for the BNB Chain deployment astatine a outgo of $400,000, focused connected expanding the Risk Oracle strategy for real-time, automated hazard parameter updates. Voting ends Aug. 1.
  • Compound DAO is voting to select its adjacent Security Service Provider (SSP). Delegates are choosing betwixt ChainSecurity & Certora, and Cyfrin. Voting ends Aug. 5.
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating proviso worthy $172.46 million.
  • Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating proviso worthy $27.48 million.
  • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating proviso worthy $13.9 million.
  • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating proviso worthy $52.14 million.
  • Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating proviso worthy $39.97 million.
  • Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating proviso worthy $16.13 million.
  • Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating proviso worthy $17.86 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 31: PlaysOut (PLAY) to beryllium listed connected Binance Alpha, MEXC, and others.
  • July 31: Naoris Protocol (NAORIS) to beryllium listed connected Binance, Gate.io BingX, MEXC, and others.
  • July 31: Brett (BRETT) to beryllium listed connected Binance.US.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done Aug. 31.

• Aug. 6-7: Blockchain.Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
• Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
• Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
• Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
• Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York)
• Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
• Aug. 21-22: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• Token generator level Pump.fun released its autochthonal PUMP token earlier this month, debuting with a worth of $1.6 cardinal marketplace cap.
• The token slumped 60% implicit the pursuing 2 weeks arsenic the instauration was greeted with a question of income requests.
• Now, however, the highly anticipated task is showing signs of life. The terms has risen 27% successful the past 24 hours arsenic buying involvement increases.
• Popular trader Matter posted a PUMP agelong presumption connected Telegram, adding that "$PUMP spot is evident comparative to the market."
• Part of Thursday's determination to the upside tin beryllium attributed to Pump's determination to conduct a buyback program, which involves utilizing 100% of regular fees to acquisition PUMP tokens connected the unfastened market.
• The token is besides publically backed by a fig of traders including Machi Big Brother, who maintained a $13.3 cardinal presumption contempt nursing $4.47 cardinal successful unrealized losses.

Derivatives Positioning

• ENA, LINK and XRP person seen the astir maturation successful futures unfastened involvement among large coins successful the past 24 hours.
• BTC and ETH planetary unfastened involvement successful coin presumption remains elevated adjacent grounds highs
• However, the antagonistic 24-hour unfastened interest-adjusted cumulative measurement delta for some coins and different large tokens points to nett selling unit successful the market, raising a question astir the sustainability of the betterment from the precocious Wednesday decline.
• On Deribit, ETH telephone bias weakened crossed the committee portion BTC hazard reversals continued to amusement a bias for puts astatine the beforehand end.
• Block flows connected OTC web Paradigm featured August expiry BTC calendar spreads and request for August expiry ether puts.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.24% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday astatine $118,592.59 (24hrs: +0.42%)
• ETH is up 2.49% astatine $3,863.55 (24hrs: +2.27%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 2.46% astatine 4,023.37 (24hrs: +1.54%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bp astatine 2.94%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0136% (14.892% annualized) connected KuCoin

• DXY is unchanged astatine 99.82
• Gold futures are up 0.18% astatine $3,358.70
• Silver futures are down 2.45% astatine $36.81
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.02% astatine 41,069.82
• Hang Seng closed down 1.60% astatine 24,773.33
• FTSE is up 0.37% astatine 9,170.69
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.10% astatine 5,387.83
• DJIA closed connected Wednesday down 0.38% astatine 44,461.28
• S&P 500 closed down 0.12% astatine 6,362.90
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.15% astatine 21,129.67
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.62% astatine 27,369.96
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.68% astatine 2,582.10
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is up 4 bps astatine 4.368%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.96% astatine 6,457.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.30% astatine 23,785.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.34% astatine 44,786.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 61.33% (-0.43%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03260 (0.84%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 898 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $59.02
• Total Fees: 4.19 BTC / $493,795
• CME Futures Open Interest: 139,740 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 35.8 oz
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 10.12%

Technical Analysis

• The dollar scale (DXY) has triggered a dual bullish signal, marked by an inverse head-and-shoulder breakout followed by a crossover supra the Ichimoku cloud.
• The signifier points to further gains ahead, which could perchance headdress upside successful BTC.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Thursday astatine $395.04 (+0.1%), +1.97% astatine $402.84 successful pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $377.48 (+1.63%), +2.87% astatine $388.30
• Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $190.5 (+4.88%), -0.19% astatine $190.13
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $28.9 (+8%), +4.33% astatine $30.15
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $16.55 (-0.36%), +1.27% astatine $16.76
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $13.52 (-0.59%), +1.48% astatine $13.72
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $13.05 (-1.02%), +3.1% astatine $13.46
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $11.42 (-2.64%), +1.14% astatine $11.55
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $24.71 (-0.8%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $35.91 (-1.89%), 1.73% astatine $36.53
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $29.08 (-8.06%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $19.56 (+2.52%), +5.88% astatine $20.71

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $47.1 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $55.08 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $5.8 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $9.64 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.73 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The full proviso of stablecoins connected Coinbase's layer-2 blockchain Base has flatlined supra $4 billion.
• In different words, caller superior is nary longer flowing onto the chain.

While You Were Sleeping

• Trump Escalates Trade War With Canada Following Palestine Stance (Reuters): President Trump said a commercialized woody with Canada looks improbable aft it backed Palestinian statehood, with 35% tariffs acceptable to deed non-USMCA goods if nary statement is reached.
• Trump Escalates Fight With Brazil, Taking Aim astatine Its Economy and Politics (The New York Times): Angered by blimpish censorship and what helium calls governmental persecution of erstwhile President Bolsonaro, Trump imposed 50% tariffs connected Brazil starting Aug. 6, though cardinal exports similar craft and orangish foodstuff are exempt.
• Strategy's Market Hints astatine Strongest Downside Risk Since April (CoinDesk): Put enactment request connected MSTR deed its highest level successful 3 months, with Strategy shares down implicit 14% successful 2 weeks and closing beneath their 50-day moving average.
• Crypto Exchange Kraken's Earnings Fell 6.8% Year-Over-Year to $79.7M successful Q2 (CoinDesk): Kraken blamed weaker net connected seasonal trading patterns and a crypto sell-off triggered by U.S. tariffs, which helped propulsion BTC to a 2025 debased adjacent $76,000 successful April.
• The Ether Machine Begins ETH Treasury Deployment With $57M Purchase (CoinDesk): The steadfast bought astir 15,000 ETH, launching a semipermanent treasury strategy tied to its SPAC listing, with implicit $400 cardinal inactive earmarked for aboriginal acquisitions.
• Donald Trump Slams India and Russia arsenic ‘Dead Economies’ After Tariff Stand-Off (Financial Times): India’s apical trading spouse is the U.S., but it remains heavy reliant connected Russian arms and oil. A 25% U.S. tariff connected Indian goods is scheduled to statesman Aug. 1.

In the Ether