2 hours ago
Many investors are presently viewing bitcoin done an end-of-cycle lens, suggesting that Q4 could people the adjacent of the existent marketplace cycle. However, 2 cardinal metrics constituent to the anticipation that the bull marketplace whitethorn really beryllium successful its aboriginal stages.
Glassnode information shows that the 200-week moving mean (200WMA), which smooths bitcoin’s terms implicit a semipermanent skyline and has historically lone trended upwards, has conscionable breached $53,000.
Meanwhile, the realized price, the mean terms astatine which each bitcoin successful circulation past moved onchain, has conscionable risen supra the 200-WMA astatine $54,000.
Looking backmost astatine erstwhile cycles, we spot a accordant pattern. In bull markets, the realized terms tends to enactment supra the 200-WMA, portion successful carnivore markets, the other occurs.
For example, successful the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, the realized terms steadily climbed higher and widened its spread supra the 200-WMA, earlier yet collapsing beneath it and signaling the commencement of the carnivore markets.
While, during the downturn of 2022, the realized terms fell beneath the 200-WMA, it has lone precocious moved supra it. Historically, erstwhile the realized terms remains supra this semipermanent moving average, bitcoin has tended to propulsion higher arsenic the bull marketplace progresses.
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