Bitcoin’s death cross confirmation could mean BTC is officially in a bear market

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s decease cross, which antecedently led to 64%-77% BTC terms declines, has flashed again.

• Mounting selling unit is prompting galore investors to merchantability their BTC holdings astatine a loss. 

Bitcoin (BTC) whitethorn person confirmed its introduction into a carnivore marketplace aft the terms dropped to $80,000 connected Friday. This presumption is reinforced by a convergence of method indicators that person historically preceded extended declines. 

Bitcoin’s macro uptrend was invalidated

The BTC/USD brace closed beneath its 50-week moving average connected Sunday, a level crypto expert Rekt Capital has been intimately watching, saying that the “price volition request to reclaim it promptly connected a alleviation rally to support the structure.”

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) November 16, 2025

“Bitcoin wasn’t capable to reclaim the 50-week EMA,” the expert said successful a Friday station connected X, adding:

“Bullish marketplace structures are invalidated erstwhile the macro inclination shifts.”

Rekt Capital was referring to Bitcoin’s driblet beneath cardinal enactment lines, adjacent arsenic the terms slid beneath the 100-week moving mean to scope a six-month debased of $80,500 connected Friday. 

Related: Bitcoin slump to $86K brings BTC person to ‘max pain’ but large ‘discount’ zone

Meanwhile, the terms confirmed a “death cross” connected its regular illustration astatine the extremity of past week, a method signifier that has antecedently preceded important terms declines.

On Nov. 16, Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed beneath its 200-day SMA for the archetypal clip since January 2024, forming a decease cross.

“Every Bitcoin rhythm has ended with a Death Cross,” said expert Mister Crypto successful an X investigation connected Monday, asking:

“Why would this clip beryllium different?”

Bitcoin’s past show aft a decease cross. Source: Mister Crypto

In January 2022, the decease transverse was followed by a 64% BTC terms drop, bottoming astatine $15,500, fueled by the FTX collapse. 

March 2018 and  September 2014 saw 67% and 71% declines successful BTC price, respectively, aft coating akin SMA crossovers.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s SuperTrend indicator besides sent a bearish awesome connected the play chart, an occurrence that has historically marked the commencement of a carnivore market. 

Bitcoin realized losses surpassed $800 million

With expanding selling unit by the hour, the measurement of realized losses has risen to levels not seen since the 2022 FTX collapse. 

Onchain information supplier Glassnode shared a illustration showing that Bitcoin’s aggregate realized losses by some short-term and semipermanent holders person surged to areas supra $800 cardinal connected a seven-day rolling basis. The $800 cardinal people was past crossed successful November 2022. 

“Short-term holders are driving the bulk of the capitulation,” Glassnode said, adding:

“The standard and velocity of these losses bespeak a meaningful washout of marginaBitcoin realized loss.ers unwind into the drawdown.”

Bitcoin realized loss. Source: Glassnode

Sharing a akin perspective, CryptoQuant expert IT Tech said that short-term selling “often marks a section bottommost if the terms rapidly reclaims the outgo basis,” adding:

“Failing to bash truthful historically indicates a deeper bearish inclination oregon confirms a carnivore market.” 

Bitcoin STH realized nett and loss. Source: CryptoQuant

As Cointelegraph reported, short-term holders person been panic-selling their Bitcoin holdings astatine a loss, adding substance to analysts’ predictions that the BTC terms volition extend its downtrend toward its April bottommost of $74,500.

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