Bitcoin momentum loss is pre-FOMC derisking, not a trend change

15 hours ago

Traders chopped hazard up of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve determination connected involvement rates, and a long-awaited crypto argumentation study from the White House.

Bitcoin momentum nonaccomplishment   is pre-FOMC derisking, not a inclination   change

Key points: 

  • Bitcoin’s terms compression and the Bollinger Bands suggest a scope enlargement volition hap soon. 

  • This week’s aboriginal terms weakness is apt the effect of traders cutting hazard up of Wednesday’s FOMC and a White House update connected its crypto argumentation and Bitcoin strategical reserve.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to commercialized wrong the $117,000 to $120,000 scope connected Tuesday, and it looks poised for a regular adjacent beneath $118,000. Some analysts person called for BTC to retest underlying support astatine $114,000 to $110,000, and portion technicals bash enactment specified a move, Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and a long-awaited White House study connected US crypto argumentation and a strategical Bitcoin reserve could reverse the downtrend.

The study should uncover the nonstop fig of Bitcoin presently held by the US government, and traders are hopeful that President Trump volition instrumentality further steps toward enacting an authoritative strategical Bitcoin reserve. 

In summation to comments from the Fed, quarterly net for Meta Platforms, Ford, Robinhood and Microsoft are posted connected Wednesday, on with US economical information connected Nonfarm Payroll, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), GDP, user sentiment, and the ISM study connected manufacturing and services.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is besides scheduled to speak, pursuing the Fed’s determination connected involvement rates. Currently, CME Group’s FedWatch metric shows Fed funds futures pricing successful a 98% accidental that the cardinal slope volition permission rates unchanged wrong the 4.25% to 4.5% range. Despite intensifying unit from President Trump to instantly chopped rates, Powell appears committed to staying the people and leaving the Fed with the enactment of hiking oregon cutting rates based connected economical data. 

As has been the lawsuit successful erstwhile trading days earlier the FOMC, crypto traders look to person chopped risk, and astir large-cap tokens sold disconnected today. Data from TRDR shows Bitcoin’s aggregate unfastened involvement falling to $49.58 billion, from $50.58 cardinal astatine the Wall Street opening bell. Long liquidations successful the futures marketplace accelerated the selling, and information from Coinglass shows $173.8 cardinal successful longs magin called implicit the past 12 hours.  

12-hour full marketplace liquidations. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Bitcoin bulls purpose to pursuit liquidity astatine $122K, but Q3 seasonality could stall breakouts

Will bully quality trigger a breakout? 

In the past 3 weeks, Bitcoin terms has seen a adjacent 45% simplification successful intraday volatility arsenic its regular precocious to debased scope has narrowed to $2,300 from $4,200 connected July 14. This terms compression, though emblematic for periods of consolidation, tends to terminate with a beardown directional move, and successful this case, FOMC minutes that align with the markets’ anticipation and possibly bullish quality from the White House crypto study could beryllium the catalyst for upside.

The Bollinger Bands are besides adjacent pinched to a close, reinforcing Bitcoin’s terms compression and brewing scope expansion.

BTC/USDT Binance Perps. 1-day chart. Source: TRDR.io

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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