Bitcoin miners need BTC price over $98K by the halving — Analysis

Predictions that Bitcoin (BTC) volition spot a six-figure terms by the extremity of adjacent twelvemonth proceed to aboveground contempt BTC terms losing the $30,000 level in caller days. 

But for publicly-listed Bitcoin miners, successful particular, a terms northbound of $100,000 whitethorn beryllium much of a necessity than a forecast if their concern models are to stay profitable.

Bitcoin halving: Bad quality for nationalist miners?

Bitcoin mining stocks person been connected a teardrop this year, outperforming BTC successful caller months by a wide margin. While BTC has seen reduced volatility and a play of consolidation, Bitcoin mining companies' stocks person risen by astir 100% successful a substance of months.

Recent show of fashionable BTC mining stocks. Source: Made Easy – Finance connected Seeking Alpha

A caller study by “Made Easy – Finance” connected Seeking Alpha goes into item connected the taxable by examining 1 fashionable miner successful particular: Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT).

It notes that contempt RIOT being expected to triple its mining capableness successful 2024, the institution and Bitcoin miners successful wide could look superior headwinds from the halving. A 50% alteration successful BTC artifact rewards, of course, cuts miners’ main root of gross successful half.

Miners similar RIOT tin besides contented caller equity shares to money their operations. This dilutes existing shares, meaning that adjacent if the company’s underlying fundamentals are sustained, the stock terms whitethorn not support up.

Related: $160K astatine adjacent halving? Model counts down to caller Bitcoin all-time high

Combine this with the information that galore miners could already beryllium overbought astatine existent valuations, and things don’t look excessively rosy for nationalist Bitcoin mining stocks. Although nationalist mining stocks person outperformed Bitcoin successful 2023, an summation successful BTC being sent to exchanges could beryllium pointing toward a diminution successful momentum. 

A large summation successful Bitcoin's terms volition truthful beryllium required for miners to stay profitable astatine today's hash rate levels.

— Joe Consorti ⚡ (@JoeConsorti) July 18, 2023

Miners mightiness request six-figure Bitcoin to enactment afloat

How precocious does BTC terms request to spell for miners to support their existent valuations? The above-mentioned study concludes that astir $100,000 could beryllium needed for miners to transportation connected arsenic usual:

“Unless Bitcoin outperforms our Bitcoin thesis, we don't spot immoderate mode wherever the Bitcoin assemblage tin travel retired unscathed. Even with RIOT's ambitious 35 EH/s, our exemplary suggests that Bitcoin needs to commercialized supra $98,000 to warrant RIOT's existent valuation (post-halving).”

Based connected this, the study warns that "hodling" BTC mining stocks is "extremely risky,” arsenic underlying fundamentals whitethorn not support gait with existent valuations that whitethorn not beryllium pricing successful adjacent year’s Bitcoin halving yet.

BTC terms to 125k successful 2024?

Meanwhile, a caller report from Matrixport entitled “Prepare for the Soaring 2024 Year-End Bitcoin Target of $125,000” describes however BTC could scope $45,000 by year-end and $125,000 by the extremity of 2024.

The value of Bitcoin terms reaching a one-year high for the archetypal clip successful a twelvemonth is emphasized by the authors.

This awesome has marked the opening of a caller bull marketplace each clip successful the past:

“On June 22, 2023, Bitcoin made a caller one-year high, marking the archetypal clip successful a year. This awesome has historically indicated the extremity of carnivore markets and the commencement of caller crypto bull markets. Previous occurrences took spot successful August 2012, December 2015, May 2019, and August 2020, with the existent bull markets materialising successful 2013, 2017, and 2021.”

It continues:

“This awesome has been triggered 4 times and successful each 4 cases, the bull marketplace afloat unfolded wrong 12-18 months. If past is immoderate guide, then, determination is present a 100% probability that by the extremity of 2024, Bitcoin volition acquisition different monolithic bull marketplace with a terms people of $125,000 (+310%) - based connected the erstwhile 3 signals.”

This six-figure Bitcoin terms predictions echoes galore others. Standard Chartered, for example, forecasts a $120,000 Bitcoin terms by the extremity of 2024. Interestingly, this is mostly based connected BTC miners not selling Bitcoin earlier the halving.

Bitcoin whitethorn scope $120,000 by the extremity of 2024, Standard Chartered forecasts, arsenic an expected betterment successful crypto miners' fortunes allows them to clasp connected to much of the tokens https://t.co/Z9z0BbKCqS

— Bloomberg Crypto (@crypto) July 11, 2023

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.