Bitcoin could target $141k if it breaks out of the $105k-$125k box

Bitcoin (BTC) remains boxed betwixt $105,000 and $125,000, but a breakout could punctual prices toward $141,000, according to Glassnode’s July 29 report.

The Short‑Term Holder (STH) outgo basis, a cardinal pivot betwixt bullish and bearish section regimes, sits adjacent $105,400. This metric is cardinal to defining BTC’s consequent movements.

Price has repeatedly met absorption astir the STH +1 set astatine astir $125,100, labeled arsenic a “heated” area. A decisive adjacent supra that level would displacement absorption to the STH +2 set adjacent $141,600, wherever sell‑side unit historically intensifies.

Image: Glassnode

Surviving the play accent test

The study besides highlighted that the play accent trial passed. Network liquidity absorbed 1 of the cycle’s largest organisation events arsenic an aboriginal investor, via Galaxy Digital, moved astir $9.6 cardinal worthy of Bitcoin crossed marketplace and OTC venues.

The spot terms fell to $115,000 earlier stabilizing adjacent $118,000, indicating marketplace extent adjacent during bladed play hours.

The study estimated that the Realized Cap, which is dollar-denominated liquidity embedded successful the chain, is astatine implicit $1 trillion, a standard that helps explicate the swift stabilization.

Furthermore, travel metrics spiked astir the event. Net Realized Profit/Loss deed a grounds $3.7 billion, portion realized profits exceeded losses by a 571x multiple. These levels are seen connected lone 1.5% of days.

Image: Glassnode

The study cautioned that utmost profit‑taking often precedes section exhaustion but doesn’t ever instantly people a top, arsenic anterior peaks person followed with a lag.

Rotating capital

Holder rotation is inactive successful affirmative breadth. Long‑Term Holder Net Realized P/L surged to an all‑time precocious $2.5 billion, the largest azygous sell‑side people connected record, arsenic Long-Term Holders (LTH) distributed into strength.

The LTH/STH proviso ratio has contracted 11% successful 30 days, mirroring organisation waves seen adjacent each all-time precocious this cycle.

Nevertheless, much than 97% of proviso remains successful profit, aggregate unrealized profits reached $1.4 trillion, and unrealized nett arsenic a stock of marketplace headdress is backmost supra levels representing a blend of euphoria, risk, and request tailwind.

LTHs inactive clasp 53% of web wealth, leaving further proviso that could unlock astatine higher prices.

Cost‑basis organisation shows a high‑volume node astatine $117k-$122k and a low‑volume “air‑gap” astatine $115k-$110k that the marketplace whitethorn re‑test connected weakness.

Within STH sub-cohorts, the 24-hour to 3-month ribbon sits $110k-$117k, reinforcing that country arsenic archetypal support.

Until buyers wide $125K with conviction, the $105k-$125k scope holds.

The station Bitcoin could people $141k if it breaks retired of the $105k-$125k box appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.