Bitcoin climbs to $117k as volatility spikes across markets after compression

Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain and derivatives markets bespeak compressed volatility and a tightening proviso portion registering new all-time highs, according to Glassnode.

A July 10 study indicated that the Accumulation Trend Score has shown dependable capitalist buying since June, with the terms remaining wrong a constrictive band. The study came hours up of Bitcoin exploding into terms find supra $112,000.

As of property time, it was trading astatine $116,000 aft hitting a caller all-time precocious of $117,500.

Long-term holders proceed to adhd to balances, with proviso maturation outpacing miner issuance. This reflects a penchant to clasp coins until a wide terms determination occurs. 

Entities holding nether 100 BTC person added 19,300 BTC per month, exceeding the 13,400 BTC per period issuance, thereby absorbing caller proviso into longer-term holdings.

Realized volatility crossed 1-week to 6-month windows is adjacent the lowest levels recorded since December 2022. Only 6% of trading days since past person seen a tighter 30-day terms range, portion conscionable 0.4% person shown a narrower 60-day range. 

This multi-scale compression indicates that volatility has contracted, forming a coiled operation wherever humble request shifts tin thrust ample terms movements.

At-the-money implied volatility successful options markets has declined crossed each timeframes, with percentile ranks successful the lowest decile since precocious 2022.

Derivatives and ETF flows

Options markets are not pricing for precocious volatility, a information that has historically preceded directional terms moves erstwhile liquidity is thin.

Glassnode’s Realized Supply Density metric indicated that 19% of the proviso is positioned wrong a 10% set astir the existent price. Small terms movements tin importantly interaction unrealized profitability for a ample stock of holders, thereby expanding the imaginable for reactive trading erstwhile the terms breaks out.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) successful the US present clasp a grounds $137 cardinal successful assets nether absorption (AUM), representing 6.4% of Bitcoin’s marketplace capitalization. 

While nett inflows slowed to $144 cardinal past week, dependable request has moved proviso into regulated concern products. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF present holds 55% of full ETF AUM and dominates ETF options unfastened interest, with its outgo ground intimately aligning with broader marketplace positioning models.

The study concluded that Bitcoin’s all-time highs hap wrong an situation of debased realized volatility, choky liquidity, and dense on-chain accumulation, creating conditions wherever volatility builds softly crossed markets portion prices clasp adjacent grounds levels.

The station Bitcoin climbs to $117k arsenic volatility spikes crossed markets aft compression appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.