Bitcoin Bulls Bank on Fed's 'Stealth' Rate Cuts: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The 1 happening bitcoin (BTC) bulls perpetually sermon is liquidity easing done Fed interest-rate cuts and the anticipation of rates falling backmost to zero, conscionable arsenic successful 2020-21. Back then, the zero complaint triggered an unprecedented bull tally passim the fiscal markets, including low-cap altcoins.

Now, new analysis from the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and San Francisco shows a 9% accidental of the benchmark fed funds complaint falling to the alleged zero little bound wrong the adjacent 7 years. Current information shows expectations for elevated involvement rates, but the accidental of a zero level remains important implicit the mean to agelong term, it said.

That's successful the agelong term. The probability of rates falling that debased successful the adjacent 2 years is conscionable 1%. But remember, each it takes is conscionable 1 achromatic swan lawsuit similar the Covid clang for the Fed to see zero rates. For now, rates stay astatine 4.25% with traders pricing successful a azygous 25 basis-point chopped for the remainder of the year.

The cardinal bank, however, has been conducting stealth complaint cuts, that is it's easing liquidity done measures specified arsenic reducing the "enhanced supplementary ratio" and freeing up wealth for banks to bargain Treasury notes, according to Alexander Blume, CEO astatine concern advisor Two Prime. Furthermore, the Treasury precocious expanded its buyback program, injecting further superior into the economy, Blume said.

It's nary surprise, then, that immoderate ample traders are anticipating renewed bullish volatility and pouring wealth into the $130K bitcoin telephone enactment connected Deribit. The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs registered nett inflows for the 3rd consecutive time connected Monday, and traders are besides chasing bullish futures bets successful XRP.

In different news, Bit Digital completed its strategical Treasury displacement to ether (ETH)following a $172 cardinal nationalist equity rise and the merchantability of 280 BTC. Dubai approved the QCD Money Market Fund, a associated merchandise from Qatar National Bank and DMZ Finance. Australia-listed crypto money manager DigitalX (DCC) raised A$20.7 cardinal ($13.5 million) to boost its BTC stash.

Patrick Hansen, Circle's EU strategy director, disclosed connected X that 53 companies person obtained licenses successful the six months since the European Union implemented the MiCA crypto-asset regulation. The information shows beardown request for compliance-friendly products. Tether, the issuer of the world's largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, hasn't yet sought a license.

In accepted markets, the output connected the Japanese 30-year authorities enslaved output roseate to 3.11%, the highest since May 22, a motion of renewed volatility successful authorities bonds crossed precocious nations. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 9, 11 a.m.: The Isthmus hard fork activates connected Celo (CELO) mainnet, an Ethereum layer-2 network, aligning its L2 stack with Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and improving scalability, interoperability and information done cardinal Ethereum Improvement Proposals.
  • July 14, 10 p.m.: Singapore High Court hearing connected WazirX’s Scheme of Arrangement, marking a captious measurement successful the exchange's restructuring aft the $234 cardinal hack connected July 18, 2024.
  • July 15: Alchemist staking update launches, allowing token holders to involvement ALCH for entree to precocious features, premium benefits and ecosystem rewards, perchance boosting token inferior and demand.
  • July 15: Lynq is expected to debut its real-time, interest-bearing integer plus colony web for institutions. Built connected Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury money shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous output accrual and improved superior efficiency.
• Macro
  • July 8, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases May retail income data.
    • Retail Sales MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.4%
    • Retail Sales YoY Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 4.8%
  • July 9, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) releases June user terms ostentation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.38% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.22% vs. Prev. 4.06%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.27% vs. Prev. 0.28%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.31% vs. Prev. 4.42%
  • July 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hybrid proceeding titled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets” with CEOs of Blockchain Association, Chainalysis, Paradigm and Ripple testifying. Livestream link.
  • July 9, 2 p.m.: Release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the June 17–18 meeting.
  • July 10, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases June user terms ostentation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 026%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5.32% vs. Prev. 5.32%
  • July 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment security information for the week ended July 5.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 235K vs. Prev. 233K
    • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1980K vs. Prev. 1964K
  • July 10, 1:15 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a code astatine an lawsuit hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth. Livestream link.
  • July 10–11: The 4th Ukraine Recovery Conference successful Rome, bringing unneurotic planetary leaders and stakeholders to beforehand Ukraine’s betterment and reconstruction amid the warfare with Russia.
  • Aug. 1, 2025, 12:01 a.m.: Reciprocal tariffs instrumentality effect aft President Trump’s July 7 executive order delayed the archetypal July 9 deadline, making this the commencement day for higher tariffs connected imports from countries without commercialized deals.
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • None successful the adjacent future.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded outgo card to “to span the spread betwixt integer assets successful the Polkadot ecosystem and mundane spending.” Voting ends July 9.
  • Compound DAO is moving multiple votes connected whether to follow an Oracle Extractable Value (OEV) solution for Ethereum mainnet, Unichain, Base, Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, Scroll, Mantle, Ronin and Linea. Delegates tin take betwixt implementing Api3, Chainlink’s Secure Value Relay (SVR), oregon maintaining the existent setup without OEV. Voting for each of these ends July 12.
  • July 9, 1 p.m.: Livepeer (LKPT) to big a Fireside Chat.
• Unlocks
  • July 11: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.31% of its circulating proviso worthy $10.08 million.
  • July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating proviso worthy $49.54 million.
  • July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating proviso worthy $14.05 million.
  • July 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1% of its circulating proviso worthy $14.01 million.
  • July 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating proviso worthy $30.21 million.
  • July 18: Official TRUMP (TRUMP) to unlock 45.35% of its circulating proviso worthy $768.22 million.
  • July 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating proviso worthy $88.8 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 8: Boom (BOOM) to beryllium listed connected Binance, Bitget, KuCoin, Gate.io, MEXC, and others.
  • July 9: RCADE Network (RCADE) to beryllium listed connected Binance, Gate.io, MEXC, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done July 17.

• July 10-13: Mallorca Blockchain Days (Palma, Spain)
• July 16: Invest Web3 Forum (Dubai)
• July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
• July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
• July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
• July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Sei Network’s full worth locked (TVL) deed an all-time precocious of $626 million, marking a meteoric emergence from conscionable $60 cardinal a twelvemonth agone — a maturation complaint acold exceeding astir competing chains.
• Analysts property the surge to accrued on-chain enactment and superior inflows, with regular progressive addresses spiking to a two-year precocious following regulatory approval for the token's listing connected section exchanges from Japan’s Financial Services Agency.
• Sei’s introduction into the highly regulated Japanese marketplace is seen arsenic a cardinal catalyst, boosting some capitalist assurance and organization interest.
• The SEI terms doubled successful June, fueled by a U.S. government-backed stablecoin aviator and momentum astir a projected displacement to an EVM-only architecture successful SIP-3.
• Despite semipermanent upside, SEI remains volatile, presently down implicit 78% from its March 2024 highest and trading astatine $0.2649.
• $0.25 is present a captious method enactment level, with immoderate marketplace watchers informing that a interruption beneath could pb to a retest of $0.20.
• Investors are watching intimately arsenic Sei juggles accelerated maturation with high-stakes web changes, regulatory tailwinds and a still-fragile method setup.

Derivatives Positioning

• Negative perpetual backing rates for BNB, TRX, SOL, XLM and AVAX suggest a bias for shorts. BTC, ETH and XRP perpetuals amusement a mean bullish bias with marginally affirmative rates.
• BTC and ETH enactment connected the CME remains dull, with the annualized three-month ground level beneath 10%.
• On Deribit, traders are seeking bullish vulnerability done the bitcoin $130K onslaught calls.
• ETH artifact flows featured a agelong presumption successful the $3,200 telephone expiring connected Sept. 26 and a abbreviated presumption successful the $2,100 enactment expiring connected July 25.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.54%% from 4 p.m. ET Monday astatine $108,467.33 (24hrs: -0.23%)
• ETH is up 0.74% astatine $2,552.44 (24hrs: -0.28%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.69% astatine 3,086.44 (24hrs: -0.45%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps astatine 2.97%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0036% (3.9157% annualized) connected Binance

• DXY is down 0.14% astatine 97.35
• Gold futures are down 0.22% astatine $3,335.30
• Silver futures are unchanged astatine $36.93
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.26% astatine 39,688.81
• Hang Seng closed up 1.09% astatine 24,148.07
• FTSE is up 0.15% astatine 8,820.05
• Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged astatine 5,342.75
• DJIA closed connected Monday down 0.94% astatine 44,406.36
• S&P 500 closed down 0.79% astatine 6,229.98
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.92% astatine 20,412.52
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down unchanged astatine 27,020.28
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.68% astatine 2,695.20
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is up 2 bps astatine 4.415%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged astatine 6,281.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.24% astatine 22,938.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.11% astatine 44,630.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 65.3 (unchanged)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02352 (0.18%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 884 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $58.87
• Total fees: 4.04 BTC / $438,326
• CME Futures Open Interest: 148,445
• BTC priced successful gold: 32.6 oz.
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 9.22%

Technical Analysis

• The regular illustration for programmable blockchain Solana's SOL token shows a triangular terms consolidation pursuing precocious June's breakout from a falling channel.
• Traders typically hold for wide absorption cues to look successful specified situations.
• A breakout from the triangle volition apt output notable terms gains.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Monday astatine $395.67 (-2.06%), +0.84% astatine $399.01
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $357.1 (+0.37%), +0.81% astatine $360
• Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $207.46 (+9.9%), -0.68% astatine $206.05
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $19.69 (-9.47%), +2.54% astatine $20.19
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $16.75 (-5.15%), +0.66% astatine $16.86
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $11.55 (-5.09%), +0.69% astatine $11.63
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $14.83 (-17.61%), +2.23% astatine $15.16
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $11.33 (-7.51%), +0.88% astatine $11.43
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $24.89 (-4.38%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $38.95 (-3.71%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $29.93 (-8.75%), +0.1% astatine $29.96

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $216.5 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $49.84 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.25 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $62.1 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $4.48 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~4.18 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The illustration shows that the U.S.-listed spot ether ETFs registered nett inflows worthy 61,000 ETH successful an eight-week winning streak.
• The continued uptake for ETFs suggests a bullish outlook for the second-largest cryptocurrency by marketplace cap.

While You Were Sleeping

• BlackRock iShares Bitcoin ETF Surges Past 700K BTC successful Record-Breaking Run (CoinDesk): IBIT’s $76 cardinal successful assets, amassed successful conscionable 18 months, present surpasses ETFs similar the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).
• Coinbase Recovers to Listing Day Valuation. What Next for COIN? (CoinDesk): COIN precocious deed $380, revisiting its April 2021 Nasdaq debut level, arsenic a bullish illustration signifier signaled imaginable upside and astir cardinal analysts stay optimistic astir the stock.
• Bitcoin Traders Chase $130K Bets successful Anticipation of Renewed Bullish Volatility (CoinDesk): Bitcoin has traded sideways for implicit 50 days arsenic semipermanent holders sell, but traders are piling into $130K calls connected Deribit anticipating renewed volatility from impending macro events.
• Bonk.fun Grabs 55% of Solana Token Issuance Share, Pushes BONK Demand (CoinDesk): Over the weekend, Bonk.fun surpassed Pump.fun arsenic Solana’s apical token launchpad, handling $540 cardinal successful measurement from 175,000 memecoin launches and generating $34 cardinal successful fees.
• Europe’s Biggest Port Readies for Potential War With Russia (Financial Times): Rotterdam is coordinating with Antwerp to redirect civilian postulation and reserve terminals for subject use, preparing for large-scale NATO cargo flows arsenic portion of the EU's efforts to go much self-reliant.
• China Inc Bets Beijing Will Keep Tight Grip connected Yuan arsenic US Tariff Fears Persist (Reuters): Chinese firms are piling into dollar deposits and currency swaps arsenic Beijing’s argumentation moves suggest it whitethorn let a somewhat weaker yuan to assistance support export competitiveness amid U.S. tariff pressure.

In the Ether