Bitcoin bulls aim to chase liquidity at $122K, but Q3 seasonality could stall breakouts

21 hours ago

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin targets $122,000, wherever $2 cardinal successful abbreviated liquidations are clustered but Q3 seasonal information hints astatine downside.
A falling RSI, spot BTC ETF outflows, and debased trading volumes constituent to weakening bullish momentum.
FOMC minutes and affirmative quality from the White House could trigger a rally connected Wednesday.

Bitcoin (BTC) concisely dipped beneath $117,000 connected Tuesday, sweeping the interior liquidity built betwixt $117,000 and $119,000 implicit the weekend. This liquidity absorption, often a precursor to directional moves, occurred arsenic $100 million successful agelong positions were liquidated. Despite the dip, the 100-day exponential moving mean (EMA) connected the four-hour illustration continues to connection dynamic support, limiting downside hazard successful the abbreviated term.

With minimal buy-side liquidity disposable until $114,500, the way of slightest absorption present remains higher. The adjacent cardinal country of involvement lies betwixt $120,000–$122,000, an country of sell-side liquidity wherever halt orders are clustered. A regular proviso portion betwixt $121,400 and $123,200, representing erstwhile terms resistance, adds to this confluence, suggesting BTC whitethorn effort to expanse the outer liquidity established implicit the past 2 weeks.

Reinforcing this bias, BTC liquidation representation information reveals that $2 cardinal successful BTC abbreviated positions could beryllium liquidated astir $121,600.

Can Bitcoin flooded $122,000?

While short-term marketplace operation outlines a bullish recovery, the semipermanent setup indicates that BTC’s bullish momentum could beryllium fading. A treble apical enactment could look adjacent its all-time high, reflecting purchaser fatigue. Failure to interruption cleanly supra the $123,200 regular proviso portion would validate this bearish pattern, stalling terms discovery.

Cryptocurrencies, Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Binance, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity

Onchain information supports this caution. Bitcoin's regular comparative spot scale dropped sharply to 51.7 from 74.4, indicating exhaustion connected the spot market, portion regular volumes fell to $8.6 billion, some signs of fading participation. Spot BTC exchange-traded money (ETF) flows besides declined 80% week-over-week to $496 cardinal from $2.5 billion, pointing to cooling organization appetite.

While futures open interest remains elevated astatine $45.6 billion, rising long-side backing suggests increasing overconfidence. Additionally, 96.9% of proviso remains successful profit, signaling precocious imaginable for profit-taking.

August humanities returns further reenforce this stance. With implicit 60% of the August play closing successful the reddish with an mean instrumentality of 2.56%, the upcoming period presents seasonal headwinds. Combined with weakening onchain activity, specified arsenic falling progressive addresses and transportation volumes, BTC whitethorn retrace successful the coming weeks.

However, this outlook could beryllium invalidated connected Wednesday. The US White House is expected to merchandise a strategical crypto argumentation report, which whitethorn present a Bitcoin Reserve Framework and delta-neutral accumulation strategies, perchance boosting spot ETF flows and BTC treasury building.

Additionally, each eyes stay connected this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While nary complaint chopped is expected, specified an result could beryllium mostly priced in, fixed July’s accordant neutral tone. Yet, immoderate dovish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could displacement sentiment. If Powell hints astatine a imaginable complaint chopped successful September, markets whitethorn front-run the expectation, driving BTC to interruption supra $123,000 and propulsion to caller highs.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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