Betting on Justice? Polymarket Odds Reveal Speculators’ Take on Bankman-Fried’s Trial

As the proceedings for Sam Bankman-Fried begins this week, the cryptocurrency assemblage is eagerly awaiting the verdict. Will Bankman-Fried beryllium recovered blameworthy oregon not guilty? As the proceedings progresses, speculators are utilizing the cryptocurrency prediction level Polymarket to stake connected the imaginable outcome.

Cryptocurrency Speculators Use Polymarket to Bet connected Bankman-Fried’s Trial

This week, Sam Bankman-Fried’s (SBF) proceedings began with jury selection, opening statements and witnesser testimony. Witnesses, including a trader from the U.K. and erstwhile colleagues, person testified against him. Notable testimonies came from erstwhile FTX main exertion serviceman and co-founder Gary Wang and erstwhile FTX developer Adam Yedidia. The proceedings is expected to proceed for respective weeks, and cryptocurrency enthusiasts are utilizing the decentralized prediction marketplace Polymarket to stake connected circumstantial outcomes.

For example, arsenic the tribunal listened to testimonies from Yedidia and Wang, Polymarket users are betting on whether erstwhile Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison volition testify. Currently, the marketplace indicates an 86% accidental that Ellison volition testify, portion 14% judge she won’t. Another betting market, titled “Will Bankman-Fried Testify,” shows a 69% accidental helium volition attest and a 31% accidental helium won’t.

There’s besides a stake connected whether Bankman-Fried volition beryllium recovered blameworthy connected all charges. Currently, Polymarket likelihood bespeak a 54% accidental helium volition be. Conversely, radical tin stake $0.46 that helium volition not beryllium recovered blameworthy connected each charges. Another bet, titled “SBF Guilty of Any Charges,” shows a 90% accidental helium volition beryllium recovered blameworthy of astatine slightest 1 charge. Those who judge helium volition beryllium acquitted of each charges tin stake $0.10.

While prediction markets aren’t ever accurate, they connection penetration into nationalist sentiment. The mentation is that the combined cognition of galore individuals tin supply close predictions astir aboriginal events. Research has shown that prediction markets tin beryllium precise accurate, often much truthful than idiosyncratic experts oregon polls.

Prediction markets person agelong been utilized to stake connected aboriginal events, specified arsenic elections, sports games oregon fiscal marketplace trends. With Polymarket, marketplace prices amusement the existent likelihood of an lawsuit occurring. Participants tin bargain result shares for little than $1, which tin beryllium traded anytime and are worthy $1 if the predicted result is correct.

What bash you deliberation astir the speculators betting connected the SBF proceedings via Polymarket? Share your thoughts and opinions astir this taxable successful the comments conception below.