Altcoin Season Hope Dim as Traders Unwind Bullish Bets: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin's (BTC) consolidation continues to instrumentality the upwind retired of the bull tally successful the broader marketplace that had raised hopes for the alleged alt play marked by prolonged outperformance of alternate cryptocurrencies.

Over the past 24 hours, large altcoins person experienced a important decline, led by a double-digit driblet successful the payments-focused XRP and an 8% descent successful SOL. The CoinDesk 80 Index, which tracks the show of altcoins, has dropped implicit 7% portion the CoinDesk 20 Index, which is dominated by bitcoin and ether, has declined by 4%.

"The crypto marketplace took a nosedive, losing astir 4% of its marketplace headdress implicit the past 24 hours. Without bitcoin's growth, altcoins, which had been driving the marketplace upwards successful erstwhile days, recovered themselves connected sale. Forty-eight of the apical 100 altcoins are losing double-digit rates implicit 24 hours, portion lone 3 are growing," Alex Kuptsikevich, main marketplace expert at FxPro, said successful an email.

Amid each this, societal media is abuzz with posts astir immoderate $2 cardinal worthy of ether waiting to beryllium unstaked, with implicit 475 Ethereum validators awaiting exit. (check illustration of the time section). Some are drafting parallels with January 2024, erstwhile ample unstaking marked a impermanent terms top.

The latest surge successful unstaking appears to beryllium driven by the soaring ether borrowing rates connected decentralized platforms similar Aave, which person diminished the entreaty of looping strategies designed to boost ether staking yields.

Typically, these strategies impact users depositing liquidity staking (LST) oregon liquid restaking tokens (LRT) arsenic collateral connected platforms similar AAVE and get ETH. The borrowed ETH is again converted to LRT and LSTs and redeposited, creating a loop. The strategy works erstwhile staking yields are greater than borrowing costs.

However, with borrowing costs connected the rise, the loop is apt being reversed, starring traders to unreserved to repay loans, exit LST/LRT, and reclaim ETH.

"The existent trigger is soaring ETH borrowing rates since July 16 (peaking astatine 18%). This forced wide unwinding of ETH leverage loops connected Aave, arsenic antagonistic output spreads crushed profitability. Traders rushed to repay loans, exit LST/LRT positions, and reclaim ETH — causing depegs and queue congestion," pseudonymous perceiver Degen Station noted connected X.

It added that arbitrageurs are present scooping up LSTs and LRTs astatine a discount to redeem them for ether, worsening the issue, portion request for caller staking remains strong. To chopped to the chase, the ample queue for unstaking is not needfully a bearish signal.

In different cardinal news, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said that the institution is readying to re-enter the U.S. with stablecoin offerings for payments, interbank settlements, and trading.

In accepted markets, large currencies traded level against the U.S. dollar, but for the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair, which crossed supra absorption astatine 0.66. Traders were intimately watching for signs of sustainability arsenic nonaccomplishment could beryllium a harbinger of broad-based hazard aversion.

Stay Alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 28: Starknet (STRK), an Ethereum layer-2 validity rollup (zk-rollup), launches v0.14.0 connected mainnet.
  • July 31, 12 p.m.: A unrecorded webinar featuring Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Bitzenship laminitis Aleesandro Palombo discussing bitcoin’s imaginable arsenic the adjacent planetary reserve currency amid de-dollarization trends. Registration link.
  • Aug. 1: The Helium Network (HNT), present moving connected Solana, undergoes its halving event, cutting yearly caller token issuance to 7.5 cardinal HNT.
  • Aug. 15: Record day for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who conscionable pre-distribution requirements.
• Macro
  • July 24, 8:15 a.m.: The European Central Bank volition denote its involvement complaint decision, with President Christine Lagarde's property league pursuing 30 minutes later. Livestream link.
    • Main Refinancing Operations (MRO) complaint Est. 1.9% vs. Prev. 2.15%
  • July 24, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (flash) July U.S. information connected manufacturing and services activity.
    • Composite PMI Prev. 52.9
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 52.6 vs. Prev. 52.9
    • Services PMI Est. 53 vs. Prev. 52.9
  • July 24, 4 p.m.: President Donald Trump volition visit the Federal Reserve headquarters, highlighting his nationalist disagreements with Chair Jerome Powell and Fed monetary policy.
  • July 25, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases June manufactured durable goods orders data.
    • Durable Goods Orders MoM Est. -10.8% vs. Prev. 16.4%
    • Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM Prev. 15.5%
    • Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.5%
  • Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs instrumentality effect connected imports from trading partners that failed to scope agreements by the July 9 deadline. These accrued duties could scope from 10% to arsenic precocious arsenic 70%, impacting a wide scope of goods.
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • July 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.30
  • July 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.31
  • July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.39
  • July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.19
  • July 31: Sequans Communications (SQNS); pre-market, N/A
  • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
  • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
  • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Rocket Pool DAO is voting to finalize Saturn 1’s implementation. Approval by a 75% supermajority volition ratify cardinal protocol changes, including caller transaction designs and a imaginable gross stock to the pDAO treasury. Voting ends July 24.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting connected a proposal to merchantability its treasury of astir 16 cardinal GHST astatine a discount to VC steadfast Rongming Investment for astir $3.2 cardinal successful USDC, dissolve the DAO, and administer funds to progressive members. The VC steadfast aims to standard Aavegotchi globally portion Pixelcraft retains IP ownership. Voting ends July 25.
  • Lido DAO is voting connected a caller strategy that lets validator exits be triggered automatically done the execution layer, not conscionable by node operators. It includes tools for antithetic authorization pathways, exigency controls, and built‑in limits to forestall misuse. The update is expected to marque staking much decentralized, secure, and responsive. Voting ends July 28.
  • GnosisDAO is voting connected a connection to supply $30 cardinal per year, paid quarterly, to Gnosis Ltd., present a non-profit, to prolong its ~150‑person squad gathering captious Gnosis Chain infrastructure, products (like Gnosis Pay and Circles), concern development, and operations. Voting ends July 28.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on backing 3 caller features for the authoritative decentralized application: a Wearable Lendings UI, Gotchis Batch Lending and a BRS Optimizer. Voting ends July 29.
  • NEAR Protocol is voting connected potentially reducing NEAR’s inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators indispensable o.k. the connection for it to pass, and if so, it could beryllium implemented by precocious Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1.
  • July 29, 10 a.m.: Ether.fi to big a bi-quarterly expert call.
• Unlocks
  • July 25: Venom (VENOM) to unlock 2.84% of its circulating proviso worthy $12.36 million.
  • July 28: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 1.78% of its circulating proviso worthy $29.04 million.
  • July 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating proviso worthy $21.48 million.
  • Aug. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating proviso worthy $163.66 million.
  • Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating proviso worthy $18.92 million.
  • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating proviso worthy $13.36 million.
  • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating proviso worthy $52.59 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 24: Uranium.io (XU3O8) to beryllium listed connected KuCoin, MEXC, Gate.io, and others.
  • July 24: Aspecta (ASP) to beryllium listed connected Binance Alpha, OKX, KuCoin, BingX and others.
  • July 24: Rent (REKT) to beryllium listed connected Binance.US

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited.

• July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
• July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
• July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)
• Aug. 6-7: Blockchain.Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
• Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• PENGU surged to a grounds $0.044, reclaiming the rubric of apical Solana meme token aft overtaking BONK successful a rally timed with the 4th day of the Pudgy Penguins NFT collection.
• The token jumped 21% successful 24 hours, extending a multiday rally and overtaking its erstwhile all-time precocious of $0.042 from January.
• South Korean traders are driving momentum, with 38% of PENGU measurement present successful KRW pairs, up from 32% earlier this month, a important attraction of localized demand.
• Open involvement successful PENGU futures is astatine a grounds high, indicative of expectations of further volatility.
• The Pudgy Penguins NFT level terms has astir doubled to 16.2 ETH, reinforcing the transportation betwixt token terms and NFT ecosystem strength.
• PENGU’s rally comes amid anemic sentiment astir PUMP pursuing its underwhelming post-ICO performance, pushing attraction and liquidity toward different Solana memecoins.
• The token is progressively being viewed arsenic a proxy for meme marketplace sentiment, combining precocious liquidity, speech access, taste mindshare and ties to a top-tier NFT IP.

Derivatives Positioning

• Open involvement successful BTC, ETH, XRP and SOL offshore perpetual has declined on with prices successful the past 24 hours. Yet, backing rates clasp positive. This operation indicates that the marketplace swoon is predominantly driven by the unwinding of bullish bets alternatively than outright shorts.
• On the CME, the annualized three-month ground successful BTC futures has ticked up to astir 9%, the highest since May. However, unfastened involvement remains locked successful acquainted ranges.
• ETH CME futures unfastened involvement has pulled backmost somewhat from the grounds 2.08 cardinal ETH to 1.87 cardinal ETH. Basis, meanwhile, has topped 10% for the archetypal clip since the extremity of May, indicating a bullish sentiment.
• On Deribit, the enactment bias successful short-dated BTC hazard reversals has strengthened, indicating fears of deeper terms propulsion back. ETH options proceed to amusement a bullish telephone bias crossed each tenors. Surprisingly, XRP hazard reversals stay bullish contempt the crisp terms driblet successful the past 24 hours.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.49% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday astatine $118,534.04 (24hrs: -0.09%)
• ETH is up 1.9% astatine $2,607.45 (24hrs: -1.15%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.41% astatine 3,934.83 (24hrs: -3.55%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps astatine 2.95%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0091% (9.9645% annualized) connected KuCoin

• DXY is up 0.14% astatine 97.35
• Gold futures are down 0.86% astatine $3,368.50
• Silver futures are down 0.32% astatine $39.38
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.59% astatine 41,826.34
• Hang Seng closed up 0.51% astatine 25,667.18
• FTSE is up 1.00% astatine 9,151.80
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.56% astatine 5,374.36
• DJIA closed connected Wednesday up 1.14% astatine 45,010.29
• S&P 500 closed up 0.78% astatine 6,358.91
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.61% astatine 21,020.02
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.19% astatine 27,416.41
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.86% astatine 2,639.18
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is up 1 bps astatine 4.398%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged astatine 6,402.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.33% astatine 23,387.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.30% astatine 45,078.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 62.1% (0.33%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.3055 (unchanged)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 908 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $59.59
• Total fees: 4.19 BTC / $496,766
• CME Futures Open Interest: 149,260 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 35.2 oz.
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 9.87%

Technical Analysis

• The DeFi dominance index, which measures the stock of decentralized concern coins successful the full crypto market, is presently showing a classical "breakout and re-test" pattern.
• This method setup, characterized by a re-test of the breakout point, typically signals that the scale is consolidating earlier a imaginable important rally.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Wednesday astatine $412.67 (-3.22%), unchanged successful pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $397.81 (-1.64%), unchanged successful pre-market
• Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $202.41 (+2.07%), -1.6% astatine $199.18
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $31.03 (+6.6%), -0.1% astatine $31
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $17.57 (-11.62%), +0.23% astatine $17.61
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $14.34 (+0.49%), -0.49% astatine $14.27
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $13.49 (+0.07%), +0.37% astatine $13.54
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $12.45 (-3.04%), unchanged successful pre-market
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $27.34 (-0.8%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $39.32 (-2.16%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $34.21 (-1.5%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $25.81 (-5.8%), +0.66% astatine $25.98

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flows: -$85.8 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $54.44 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $332.2 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $8.67 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.24 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The queue for unstaking ether present consists of 652,298 ETH with waiting clip of implicit 11 days.

While You Were Sleeping

• FTX to Start Next Round of Creditor Repayments connected Sept. 30 (CoinDesk): FTX, the bankrupt crypto speech formerly led by Sam Bankman-Fried, has repaid astir $6.2 cardinal to creditors. The adjacent organisation volition beryllium handled by BitGo, Kraken and Payoneer.
• Crypto Industry Asks President Trump to Stop JPMorgan’s 'Punitive Tax' connected Data Access (CoinDesk): A program by JPMorgan to complaint companies similar Plaid and MX for linking slope accounts to crypto exchanges threatens fiat on-ramps, with Plaid unsocial facing fees that could hitch retired astir of its revenue.
• 'Wall Streetization' of Bitcoin: BTC Volatility Index and the S&P 500 VIX Boast Record 90-Day Correlation (CoinDesk): Institutional crypto traders are mirroring equity enactment strategies, reshaping bitcoin’s volatility signals into sentiment gauges and decoupling them from terms trends, starring to grounds alignment with Wall Street fearfulness metrics.
• BTC, XRP, SOL, ETH Witness 'Long Squeeze' arsenic Futures Open Interest Slides With Prices (CoinDesk): Positive backing rates and declining futures vulnerability suggest bullish traders are being cleared retired — not replaced — pointing to a leverage reset alternatively than a displacement successful sentiment.
• Chinese and EU Leaders Are About to Meet — but the U.S. Is Complicating Things (Financial Times): EU officials challenged Beijing implicit its $142 cardinal commercialized surplus and ties to Moscow, portion China defended its stance and warned Brussels against tariffs oregon restricting marketplace entree done proviso concatenation controls.
• How a Chinese Border Town Keeps Russia’s Economy Afloat (The New York Times): China’s booming imports of Russian energy, timber and atom present provender its manufacturing assemblage arsenic Beijing replaces Western buyers crossed cardinal sectors of the post-sanctions economy.

In the Ether