$100K retest vs. highest monthly close ever: 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

1 week ago

Bitcoin (BTC) starts June with BTC terms enactment successful a unsafe spot — can buyers sphere cardinal bull marketplace enactment levels?

Bitcoin traders are gearing up for caller volatility arsenic the highest-ever monthly adjacent contrasts with expanding bets of a $100,000 retest.
Labor marketplace weakness and Fed argumentation are backmost nether the microscope arsenic ostentation diverges from involvement rates.
The latest terms volatility has led investors crossed the hodler spectrum to rethink their BTC exposure.
Retail is lone conscionable waking up, but Bitcoin whales are already exhibiting classical inclination reversal behavior.
Can profitability substance different tally to arsenic precocious arsenic $120,000?

Bitcoin RSI information taints best-ever monthly close

Bitcoin managed to “save” the play candle adjacent by the tegument of its teeth, capping a week of retracement, which astatine 1 constituent totaled 8%.

At astir $105,700, information from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, the play adjacent came successful supra a cardinal level from December 2024 — one which investigation stated needed to hold.

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) June 2, 2025

The results, however, were bittersweet, with a bearish divergence playing retired connected the comparative spot scale (RSI).

A classical inclination spot indicator, RSI has printed a little precocious arsenic terms hits and withdraws from its highest-ever levels.

“Weekly bearish divergence locked successful - and a imaginable bearish retest forming present arsenic well,” fashionable trader Jelle warned successful a post connected X.

“Big time up for Bitcoin, investigating immoderate little levels is not improbable truthful agelong arsenic the achromatic enactment isn't reclaimed.”

May yet sealed 11% gains, and marked the highest monthly adjacent ever for BTC/USD contempt the precocious comedown.

Now, information from monitoring assets CoinGlass shows that the bulk of bid publication liquidity lies above, not below, price.

In his latest X thread, chap trader CrypNuevo utilized liquidity to foretell an eventual rebound to $113,000.

‘We'll yet deed that range. Ideally $100k --> $113k,” helium argued astir his preferred BTC terms trajectory.

Powell successful the spotlight arsenic ostentation and Fed diverge

US unemployment and Federal Reserve argumentation are the 2 cardinal elements connected the radar for risk-asset traders this week.

The spot of the labour marketplace is nether scrutiny aft hints of weakness successful caller information challenged the Fed’s quality to clasp involvement rates “higher for longer.”

The April people of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which came successful astatine oregon beneath expectations, astatine the aforesaid clip confirmed slowing inflationary pressure.

“The moderating level of ostentation means that the short-term fed funds involvement complaint is the highest supra PCE since heading into the fiscal situation successful 2008,” trading steadfast Mosaic writes successful the latest variation of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

“That mightiness explicate wherefore Trump summoned Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week to unit the cardinal slope into cutting rates.”

US President Donald Trump’s archetypal gathering with Powell past week nevertheless did small to boost bets that existent hawkish argumentation whitethorn alteration successful the adjacent future. The latest information from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows markets rejecting the anticipation of a complaint chopped earlier September.

Powell himself is owed to talk astatine the opening of the Fed Board’s International Finance Division 75th Anniversary Conference successful Washington DC connected June 2.

Continuing, Mosaic Asset identifies a imaginable Bitcoin tailwind successful the signifier of declining US dollar spot against the inheritance of trade-tariff uncertainty.

The US dollar scale (DXY) has dropped backmost beneath 99 aft flipping the three-figure bound from enactment to absorption past month.

“If downside successful DXY accelerates aft losing the 100 level, that could besides awesome semipermanent interest implicit the outlook for U.S. economical maturation and fiscal condition,” Mosaic adds.

“That could service arsenic different bullish catalyst for precious metals and Bitcoin.”

Hodler flows suggest “market successful transition”

Bitcoin’s astir 8% comedown from all-time highs has already sparked a displacement successful capitalist behavior.

While preserving $105,000 astatine the latest play close, BTC investors person not retained the levels of vulnerability seen during the tallness of upside successful May.

In its latest research, onchain analytics level CryptoQuant reveals 3 signs that hodlers person begun to trim risk.

“These see important stablecoin outflows from Binance, a diminution successful semipermanent holder (LTH) interest, and contrasting accumulation patterns among antithetic wallet cohorts,” contributor Amr Taha summarizes successful 1 of its “Quicktake” blog posts.

Binance stablecoin outflows tapped $1 cardinal astatine the extremity of May — perchance reflecting traders’ tendency to hedge against risk.

“Stablecoin netflows are a captious liquidity indicator; antagonistic netflows suggest that traders are moving funds retired of exchanges,” Taha explains.

At the aforesaid time, Bitcoin’s semipermanent holders (LTHs) — entities hodling for six months oregon much — saw their realized headdress diminution done the extremity of the month. Realized headdress refers to the combined worth of each LTH coins measured by the terms astatine which they past moved.

“The operation of dense stablecoin withdrawals, reduced LTH accumulation, and shifting cohort behaviors signals a marketplace successful transition,” CryptoQuant concludes.

“Whether this sets the signifier for a cooling-off period, a steadfast consolidation, oregon renewed momentum volition beryllium connected however caller superior re-enters the strategy and whether retail buyers tin prolong the existent rally without organization reinforcement.”

Whales rethink accumulation

A akin script is playing retired among Bitcoin whales.

“Entities holding betwixt (1k~10k) BTC person gradually reduced their vulnerability arsenic Bitcoin’s terms climbed from $81K to $110K, systematically distributing their holdings successful a phased mode passim the rally's progression,” CryptoQuant reports.

Retail holders, having ignored Bitcoin’s comeback until caller all-time highs hit, are present diverging from whales by accumulating “at the top.”

Changing whale patterns person not gone unnoticed elsewhere. In its latest biweekly report connected May 30, probe steadfast Santiment described “clear signs of profit-taking.”

“High whale enactment during marketplace tops tin sometimes constituent to distribution, oregon astute wealth taking profit. We person consistently seen abrupt large whale transaction spikes people terms bottoms (like the 1 we saw connected Apr 7, 2025) oregon terms tops (i.e., May 22, 2025),” it wrote.

“Think of them arsenic fantastic reversal indicators, with the latest awesome showing immoderate wide profit-taking.”

Santiment suggested watching crypto marketplace sentiment cues for hints arsenic to wherever terms mightiness beryllium headed successful June.

“We’ve seen sentiment flip from euphoric to fearful successful a substance of days, and terms behaviour has followed these emotions with near-perfect timing,” it noted.

After dropping by astir 25% successful 2 days past week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index present stands astatine 64/100, marking a instrumentality to “greed” territory.

Profit-taking hints astatine $120,000 “local top”

Should the bull marketplace signifier a drawback comeback, bets are already successful implicit wherever the adjacent upside people — and section apical — may be.

Last week, onchain analytics steadfast Glassnode leveraged hodler profitability to delineate terms points astatine which profit-taking should again intermission BTC terms upside. For this it utilized modular deviation connected the marketplace worth to realized worth (MVRV) ratio.

“MVRV Ratio compares BTC's marketplace terms to the mean capitalist outgo ground - helping gauge erstwhile investors clasp outsized unrealized profits,” it explained successful an X thread connected May 30.

“We're present trading betwixt +0.5σ ($100.2K) and +1σ ($119.4K) bands, a portion that has often preceded section tops.”

BTC terms enactment could frankincense sphere $100,000 arsenic support, contrasting with different downside targets which see a instrumentality closer to the $90,000 mark.

“While $BTC is adjacent overheated territory, it hasn’t yet crossed supra the +1σ MVRV set - a level that historically triggers wide profit-taking,” Glassnode added.

“Until then, the marketplace whitethorn inactive person country to tally earlier capitalist gains go ‘too bully not to sell.’”

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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